Feedback Loops in Opinion Dynamics of Agent-Based Models with Multiplicative Noise

We introduce an agent-based model for co-evolving opinions and social dynamics, under the influence of multiplicative noise. In this model, every agent is characterized by a position in a social space and a continuous opinion state variable. Agents’ movements are governed by the positions and opinions of other agents and similarly, the opinion dynamics are influenced by agents’ spatial proximity and their opinion similarity. Using numerical simulations and formal analyses, we study this feedback loop between opinion dynamics and the mobility of agents in a social space. We investigate the behaviour of this ABM in different regimes and explore the influence of various factors on the appearance of emerging phenomena such as group formation and opinion consensus. We study the empirical distribution, and, in the limit of infinite number of agents, we derive a corresponding reduced model given by a partial differential equation (PDE). Finally, using numerical examples, we show that a resulting PDE model is a good approximation of the original ABM

Feedback Loops in Opinion Dynamics of Agent-Based Models with Multiplicative Noise

We introduce an agent-based model for co-evolving opinions and social dynamics, under the influence of multiplicative noise. In this model, every agent is characterized by a position in a social space and a continuous opinion state variable. Agents’ movements are governed by the positions and opinions of other agents and similarly, the opinion dynamics are influenced by agents’ spatial proximity and their opinion similarity. Using numerical simulations and formal analyses, we study this feedback loop between opinion dynamics and the mobility of agents in a social space. We investigate the behaviour of this ABM in different regimes and explore the influence of various factors on the appearance of emerging phenomena such as group formation and opinion consensus. We study the empirical distribution, and, in the limit of infinite number of agents, we derive a corresponding reduced model given by a partial differential equation (PDE). Finally, using numerical examples, we show that a resulting PDE model is a good approximation of the original ABM

Insights into drivers of mobility and cultural dynamics of African hunter–gatherers over the past 120 000 years

Humans have a unique capacity to innovate, transmit and rely on complex, cumulative culture for survival. While an important body of work has attempted to explore the role of changes in the size and interconnectedness of populations in determining the persistence, diversity and complexity of material culture, results have achieved limited success in explaining the emergence and spatial distribution of cumulative culture over our evolutionary trajectory. Here, we develop a spatio-temporally explicit agent-based model to explore the role of environmentally driven changes in the population dynamics of hunter–gatherer communities in allowing the development, transmission and accumulation of complex culture. By modelling separately demography- and mobility-driven changes in interaction networks, we can assess the extent to which cultural change is driven by different types of population dynamics. We create and validate our model using empirical data from Central Africa spanning 120 000 years. We find that populations would have been able to maintain diverse and elaborate cultural repertoires despite abrupt environmental changes and demographic collapses by preventing isolation through mobility. However, we also reveal that the function of cultural features was also an essential determinant of the effects of environmental or demographic changes on their dynamics. Our work can therefore offer important insights into the role of a foraging lifestyle on the evolution of cumulative culture

Understanding the romanization spreading on historical interregional networks in Northern Tunisia

Spreading processes are important drivers of change in social systems. To understand the mechanisms of spreading it is fundamental to have information about the underlying contact network and the dynamical parameters of the process. However, in many real-wold examples, this information is not known and needs to be inferred from data. State-of-the-art spreading inference methods have mostly been applied to modern social systems, as they rely on availability of very detailed data. In this paper we study the inference challenges for historical spreading processes, for which only very fragmented information is available. To cope with this problem, we extend existing network models by formulating a model on a mesoscale with temporal spreading rate. Furthermore, we formulate the respective parameter inference problem for the extended model. We apply our approach to the romanization process of Northern Tunisia, a scarce dataset, and study properties of the inferred time-evolving interregional networks. As a result, we show that (1) optimal solutions consist of very different network structures and spreading rate functions; and that (2) these diverse solutions produce very similar spreading patterns. Finally, we discuss how inferred dominant interregional connections are related to available archaeological traces. Historical networks resulting from our approach can help understanding complex processes of cultural change in ancient times

Modelling opinion dynamics under the impact of influencer and media strategies

Digital communication has made the public discourse considerably more complex, and new actors and strategies have emerged as a result of this seismic shift. Aside from the often-studied interactions among individuals during opinion formation, which have been facilitated on a large scale by social media platforms, the changing role of traditional media and the emerging role of “influencers” are not well understood, and the implications of their engagement strategies arising from the incentive structure of the attention economy even less so. Here we propose a novel framework for opinion dynamics that can accommodate various versions of opinion dynamics as well as account for different roles, namely that of individuals, media and influencers, who change their own opinion positions on different time scales. Numerical simulations of instances of this framework show the importance of their relative influence in creating qualitatively different opinion formation dynamics: with influencers, fragmented but short-lived clusters emerge, which are then counteracted by more stable media positions. The framework allows for mean-field approximations by partial differential equations, which reproduce those dynamics and allow for efficient large-scale simulations when the number of individuals is large. Based on the mean-field approximations, we can study how strategies of influencers to gain more followers can influence the overall opinion distribution. We show that moving towards extreme positions can be a beneficial strategy for influencers to gain followers. Finally, our framework allows us to demonstrate that optimal control strategies allow other influencers or media to counteract such attempts and prevent further fragmentation of the opinion landscape. Our modelling framework contributes to a more flexible modelling approach in opinion dynamics and a better understanding of the different roles and strategies in the increasingly complex information ecosystem

Koopman-based surrogate models for multi-objective optimization of agent-based systems

Agent-based models (ABMs) provide an intuitive and powerful framework for studying social dynamics by modeling the interactions of individuals from the perspective of each individual. In addition to simulating and forecasting the dynamics of ABMs, the demand to solve optimization problems to support, for example, decision-making processes naturally arises. Most ABMs, however, are non-deterministic, high-dimensional dynamical systems, so objectives defined in terms of their behavior are computationally expensive. In particular, if the number of agents is large, evaluating the objective functions often becomes prohibitively time-consuming. We consider data-driven reduced models based on the Koopman generator to enable the efficient solution of multi-objective optimization problems involving ABMs. In a first step, we show how to obtain data-driven reduced models of non-deterministic dynamical systems (such as ABMs) that depend potentially nonlinearly on control inputs. We then use them in the second step as surrogate models to solve multi-objective optimal control problems. We first illustrate our approach using the example of a voter model, where we compute optimal controls to steer the agents to a predetermined majority, and then using the example of an epidemic ABM, where we compute optimal containment strategies in a prototypical situation. We demonstrate that the surrogate models effectively approximate the Pareto-optimal points of the ABM dynamics by comparing the surrogate-based results with test points, where the objectives are evaluated using the ABM. Our results show that when objectives are defined by the dynamic behavior of ABMs, data-driven surrogate models support or even enable the solution of multi-objective optimization problems

Multilevel Optimization for Policy Design with Agent-Based Epidemic Models

Epidemiological models can not only be used to forecast the course of a pandemic like COVID-19, but also to propose and design non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school and work closing. In general, the design of optimal policies leads to nonlinear optimization problems that can be solved by numerical algorithms. Epidemiological models come in different complexities, ranging from systems of simple ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to complex agent-based models (ABMs). The former allow a fast and straightforward optimization, but are limited in accuracy, detail, and parameterization, while the latter can resolve spreading processes in detail, but are extremely expensive to optimize. We consider policy optimization in a prototypical situation modeled as both ODE and ABM, review numerical optimization approaches, and propose a heterogeneous multilevel approach based on combining a fine-resolution ABM and a coarse ODE model. Numerical experiments, in particular with respect to convergence speed, are given for illustrative examples

Multilevel optimization for policy design with agent-based epidemic models

Epidemiological modeling has a long history and is often used to forecast the course of infectious diseases or pandemics. These models come in different complexities, ranging from systems of simple ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to complex agent-based models (ABMs). The former allow a fast and straightforward optimization, but are limited in accuracy, detail, and parameterization, while the latter can resolve spreading processes in detail, but are extremely expensive to optimize. Epidemiological modeling can also be used to propose and design non-pharmaceutical interventions such as lockdowns. In general, their optimal design often leads to nonlinear optimization problems. We consider policy optimization in a prototypical situation modeled as both ODE and ABM, review numerical optimization approaches, and propose a heterogeneous multilevel approach based on combining a fine-resolution ABM and a coarse ODE model. Numerical experiments, in particular with respect to convergence speed, are given for illustrative examples

Communicated by Michael Meyer

In diesem Artikel wird ein mathematisches Modell entwickelt für die Ausbreitung des Wollschafs unter Hirten im Nahen Osten und in Südosteuropa zwischen 6200 und 4200 v. Chr. In unserem Modell werden Hirten als Agenten betrachtet, deren Bewegungen durch Zufallsprozesse gesteuert werden, sodass sich die Agenten mit größerer Wahrscheinlichkeit in Regionen aufhalten, die attraktiv für die Schafhaltung sind. Das Modell berücksichtigt außerdem soziale Interaktionen zwischen Agenten und erlaubt die Weitergabe der Innovation zwischen Agenten mit einer bestimmten Wahrscheinlichkeit. Die Parameter des agentenbasierten Modells werden an die verfügbaren archäologischen Daten angepasst. Ein Simulationsverfahren für die räumliche und zeitliche Entwicklung des Ausbreitungsprozesses soll es ermöglichen, qualitative Effekte von verschiedenen Aspekten zu studieren, die den Ausbreitungsprozess beeinflussen