Relationship-Specific Sunk Costs and Exporter Decisions

Using macro-level trade data, we investigate how different types of sunk costs influence decisions of exporters. We find that exporters’ decisions reflect sensibly their desire to minimize the relationship-specific sunk costs. Specifically, exporters of differentiated products are more likely to reenter the export market than exporters of homogenous products. Also, the former are more likely to stay in the export market and exhibit more stability when doing so than the later. All of our findings are consistent with the view that relationship with their foreign partners matters more for trade in differentiated products than in homogenous ones.International Trade; Market Reentry, Market Exit, Networks; Sunk Costs; Transition Probability Matrix

Linearized Asymptotic Stability for Fractional Differential Equations

We prove the theorem of linearized asymptotic stability for fractional differential equations. More precisely, we show that an equilibrium of a nonlinear Caputo fractional differential equation is asymptotically stable if its linearization at the equilibrium is asymptotically stable. As a consequence we extend Lyapunov's first method to fractional differential equations by proving that if the spectrum of the linearization is contained in the sector \{\lambda \in \C : |\arg \lambda| > \frac{\alpha \pi}{2}\} where $\alpha > 0$ denotes the order of the fractional differential equation, then the equilibrium of the nonlinear fractional differential equation is asymptotically stable

Trading on time

The authors determine how time delays affect international trade using newly collected World Bank data on the days it takes to move standard cargo from the factory gate to the ship in 126 countries. They estimate a modified gravity equation, controlling for endogeneity and remoteness. On average, each additional day that a product is delayed prior to being shipped reduces trade by at least 1 percent. Put differently, each day is equivalent to a country distancing itself from its trade partners by 70 kilometers on average. Delays have an even greater impact on developing country exports and exports of time-sensitive goods, such as perishable agricultural products. In particular, a day's delay reduces a country's relative exports of time-sensitive to time-insensitive agricultural goods by 6 percent.Free Trade,Economic Theory&Research,Trade Policy,Common Carriers Industry,Transport and Trade Logistics

Collaborative Inference of Coexisting Information Diffusions

Recently, \textit{diffusion history inference} has become an emerging research topic due to its great benefits for various applications, whose purpose is to reconstruct the missing histories of information diffusion traces according to incomplete observations. The existing methods, however, often focus only on single information diffusion trace, while in a real-world social network, there often coexist multiple information diffusions over the same network. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called Collaborative Inference Model (CIM) for the problem of the inference of coexisting information diffusions. By exploiting the synergism between the coexisting information diffusions, CIM holistically models multiple information diffusions as a sparse 4th-order tensor called Coexisting Diffusions Tensor (CDT) without any prior assumption of diffusion models, and collaboratively infers the histories of the coexisting information diffusions via a low-rank approximation of CDT with a fusion of heterogeneous constraints generated from additional data sources. To improve the efficiency, we further propose an optimal algorithm called Time Window based Parallel Decomposition Algorithm (TWPDA), which can speed up the inference without compromise on the accuracy by utilizing the temporal locality of information diffusions. The extensive experiments conducted on real world datasets and synthetic datasets verify the effectiveness and efficiency of CIM and TWPDA

Effects of GATT/WTO on Asia's Trade Performance

Our review of the literature suggests that the effects of GATT/WTO are insignificant or relatively small for participants in general, but potentially very large for groups that make heavy use of it. Our empirical analysis suggests that these gains are disproportionately large for the Asia-Pacific countries—perhaps by reducing resistance to the rapid growth and change in trade patterns in the region. We also highlight a potentially important source of future gains through helping to restrain the costly growth of agricultural protection in rapidly-developing countries in the region.Asian trade growth, GATT commitments, WTO accession

SURGE: Continuous Detection of Bursty Regions Over a Stream of Spatial Objects

With the proliferation of mobile devices and location-based services, continuous generation of massive volume of streaming spatial objects (i.e., geo-tagged data) opens up new opportunities to address real-world problems by analyzing them. In this paper, we present a novel continuous bursty region detection problem that aims to continuously detect a bursty region of a given size in a specified geographical area from a stream of spatial objects. Specifically, a bursty region shows maximum spike in the number of spatial objects in a given time window. The problem is useful in addressing several real-world challenges such as surge pricing problem in online transportation and disease outbreak detection. To solve the problem, we propose an exact solution and two approximate solutions, and the approximation ratio is $\frac{1-\alpha}{4}$ in terms of the burst score, where $\alpha$ is a parameter to control the burst score. We further extend these solutions to support detection of top-$k$ bursty regions. Extensive experiments with real-world data are conducted to demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our solutions