Predisposing Factors Associated With Development of Persistent Compared With Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation

Background: Once atrial fibrillation (AF) progresses to sustained forms, adverse outcomes increase and treatment success rates decrease. Therefore, identification of risk factors predisposing to persistence of AF may have a significant impact on AF morbidity. Methods and Results: We prospectively examined the differential associations between traditional, lifestyle, and biomarker AF risk factors and development of paroxysmal versus nonparoxysmal AF (persistent/permanent) among 34 720 women enrolled in the Women's Health Study who were free of cardiovascular disease and AF at baseline. AF patterns were defined based on current guidelines and classified according to the most sustained form of AF within 2 years of diagnosis. During a median follow‐up of 16.4 years, 690 women developed paroxysmal AF and 349 women developed nonparoxysmal AF. In multivariable time‐varying competing risk models, increasing age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.11, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.13, versus HR 1.08, 1.07 to 1.09, per year), body mass index (HR 1.07, 1.05 to 1.09, versus HR 1.03, 1.02 to 1.05, per kg/m2), and weight (HR 1.30, 1.22 to 1.39, versus HR 1.14, 1.08 to 1.20, per 10 kg) were more strongly associated with the development of nonparoxysmal AF compared with paroxysmal AF. Hemoglobin A1c levels at baseline were directly related to the development of nonparoxysmal AF but inversely associated with paroxysmal AF in multivariable competing risk models (P for nonequal association=0.01). Conclusions: In women without AF or CVD at baseline, increasing age, adiposity, and higher hemoglobin A1c levels were preferentially associated with the early development of nonparoxysmal AF. These data raise the hypothesis that efforts aimed at weight reduction or glycemic control may affect the proportion of the population with sustained AF

Socioeconomic Status and Incident Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Data from the Women's Health Study

We prospectively examined whether socioeconomic status (SES) predicts incident type II diabetes (diabetes), a cardiovascular risk equivalent and burgeoning public health epidemic among women

Subclinical sleep apnoea and plasma levels of endothelin-1 among young and healthy adults.

OBJECTIVE Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) is a risk factor for vascular disease and other adverse outcomes. These associations may be at least partly due to early endothelin-1 (ET-1)-mediated endothelial dysfunction (ED). Therefore, we assessed the relationships between subclinical sleep apnoea and plasma levels of ET-1. METHODS We performed a population-based study among 1255 young and healthy adults aged 25-41 years. Cardiovascular disease, diabetes or a body mass index >35 kg/mwere exclusion criteria. Plasma levels of ET-1 were measured using a high-sensitivity, single-molecule counting technology. The relationships between subclinical sleep apnoea (OSA indices: respiratory event index (REI), oxygen desaturation index (ODI), mean night-time blood oxygen saturation (SpO)) and ET-1 levels were assessed by multivariable linear regression analysis. RESULTS Median age of the cohort was 35 years. Median ET-1 levels were 2.9 (IQR 2.4-3.6) and 2.5 pg/mL (IQR 2.1-3.0) among patients with (n=105; 8%) and without subclinical sleep apnoea (REI 5-14), respectively. After multivariable adjustment, subclinical sleep apnoea remained significantly associated with plasma levels of ET-1 (β=0.13 (95% CI 0.06 to 0.20) p=0.0002 for a REI 5-14; β=0.10 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.16) p=0.003 for an ODI≥5). Every 1% decrease in mean night-time SpOincreased ET-1 levels by 0.1 pg/mL, an association that remained significant after multivariable adjustment (β=0.02 (95% CI 0.003 to 0.033) p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS In this study of young and healthy adults, we found that participants with subclinical sleep apnoea had elevated plasma ET-1 levels, an association that was due to night-time hypoxaemia. Our results suggest that ED may already be an important consequence of subclinical sleep apnoea

Apixaban for Stroke Prevention in Subclinical Atrial Fibrillation

Subclinical atrial fibrillation is short-lasting and asymptomatic and can usually be detected only by long-term continuous monitoring with pacemakers or defibrillators. Subclinical atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased risk of stroke by a factor of 2.5; however, treatment with oral anticoagulation is of uncertain benefit.We conducted a trial involving patients with subclinical atrial fibrillation lasting 6 minutes to 24 hours. Patients were randomly assigned in a double-blind, double-dummy design to receive apixaban at a dose of 5 mg twice daily (2.5 mg twice daily when indicated) or aspirin at a dose of 81 mg daily. The trial medication was discontinued and anticoagulation started if subclinical atrial fibrillation lasting more than 24 hours or clinical atrial fibrillation developed. The primary efficacy outcome, stroke or systemic embolism, was assessed in the intention-to-treat population (all the patients who had undergone randomization); the primary safety outcome, major bleeding, was assessed in the on-treatment population (all the patients who had undergone randomization and received at least one dose of the assigned trial drug, with follow-up censored 5 days after permanent discontinuation of trial medication for any reason).We included 4012 patients with a mean (±SD) age of 76.8±7.6 years and a mean CHA2DS2-VASc score of 3.9±1.1 (scores range from 0 to 9, with higher scores indicating a higher risk of stroke); 36.1% of the patients were women. After a mean follow-up of 3.5±1.8 years, stroke or systemic embolism occurred in 55 patients in the apixaban group (0.78% per patient-year) and in 86 patients in the aspirin group (1.24% per patient-year) (hazard ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.45 to 0.88; P = 0.007). In the on-treatment population, the rate of major bleeding was 1.71% per patient-year in the apixaban group and 0.94% per patient-year in the aspirin group (hazard ratio, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.26 to 2.57; P = 0.001). Fatal bleeding occurred in 5 patients in the apixaban group and 8 patients in the aspirin group.Among patients with subclinical atrial fibrillation, apixaban resulted in a lower risk of stroke or systemic embolism than aspirin but a higher risk of major bleeding. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and others; ARTESIA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01938248.)

Estimated incidence of previously undetected atrial fibrillation on a 14-day continuous electrocardiographic monitor and associated risk of stroke

Aims There is uncertainty about whether and how to perform screening for atrial fibrillation (AF). To estimate the incidence of previously undetected AF that would be captured using a continuous 14-day ECG monitor and the associated risk of stroke. Methods and results We analysed data from a cohort of patients >65 years old with hypertension and a pacemaker, but without known AF. For each participant, we simulated 1000 ECG monitors by randomly selecting 14-day windows in the 6 months following enrolment and calculated the average AF burden (total time in AF). We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score to estimate the risk of subsequent ischaemic stroke or systemic embolism (SSE) associated with burdens of AF > and 6 min was 3.10% (95% CI 2.53-3.72). This was consistent across strata of age and CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc scores. Over a mean follow-up of 2.4 years, the rate of SSE among patients with 6 min of AF. Conclusions Approximately 3% of individuals aged >65 years with hypertension may have more than 6 min of AF detected by a 14-day ECG monitor. This is associated with a stroke risk of over 2% per year. Whether oral anticoagulation will reduce stroke in these patients is unknown

Birth weight and the risk of atrial fibrillation in whites and African Americans: The atherosclerosis risk in communities (ARIC) study

Background: Low birth weight (LBW) has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). A previous study, however, found higher risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in individuals with higher birth weight (BW). To further understand this apparent paradox, we examined the relationship between AF and BW in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort. Methods: The analysis included 10,132 individuals free of AF at baseline (1996-1998), who provided BW information, were not born premature, and were not a twin. Self-reported BW was categorized as low (<2.5 kg), medium (2.5-4 kg), and high (>4.0 kg). AF incidence was ascertained from hospital discharge codes and death certificates. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to determine the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of AF across BW groups. Results: During an average follow-up of 10.3 years, we identified 882 incident AF cases. LBW was associated with higher risk of AF. Compared to individuals in the medium BW category, the HR (95% CI) of AF was 1.33 (0.99, 1.78) for LBW and 1.00 (0.81, 1.24) for high BW after adjusting for sociodemographic variables (p for trend = 0.29). Additional adjustment for CVD risk factors did not attenuate the associations (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.06, 1.90 for LBW and HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.69-1.07 for high BW, compared to medium BW, p for trend = 0.01).Conclusion: LBW was associated with a higher risk of AF. This association was independent of known predictors of AF and is consistent with that observed for other cardiovascular diseases. © 2014 Lawani et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Biomarker, Imaging, and Clinical Factors Associated With Overt and Covert Stroke in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND Atrial fibrillation is a major risk factor for stroke and silent brain infarcts. We studied whether a multimodal approach offers additional insights to the CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting stroke or new brain infarcts on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) over a 2-year follow-up. METHODS Swiss-AF is a prospective, multicenter cohort study of patients with known atrial fibrillation. We included patients with available brain MRI both at enrollment and 2 years later. The dates of the baseline and follow-up visits ranged from March 2014 to November 2020. The primary outcome was assessed 2 years after baseline and was defined as a composite of clinically identified stroke or any new brain infarct on the 2-year MRI. We compared a multivariable logistic regression model including prespecified clinical, biomarker, and baseline MRI variables to the CHA2DS2-VASc score. RESULTS We included 1232 patients, 89.8% of them taking oral anticoagulants. The primary outcome occurred in 78 patients (6.3%). The following baseline variables were included in the final multivariate model and were significantly associated with the primary outcome: white matter lesion volume in milliliters (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.91 [95% CI, 1.45-2.56]), NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; aOR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.20-2.63]), GDF-15 (growth differentiation factor-15; aOR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.11-2.53]), serum creatinine (aOR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.02-2.22]), IL (interleukin)-6 (aOR, 1.37 [95% CI, 1.00-1.86]), and hFABP (heart-type fatty acid-binding protein; aOR, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.31-0.73]). Overall performance and discrimination of the new model was superior to that of the CHA2DS2-VASc score (C statistic, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.77-0.87] versus 0.64 [95% CI, 0.58-0.70]). CONCLUSIONS In patients with atrial fibrillation, a model incorporating white matter lesion volume on baseline MRI and selected blood markers yielded new insights on residual stroke risk despite a high proportion of patients on oral anticoagulants. This may be relevant to develop further preventive measures

Association of Heart Rate Variability With Silent Brain Infarcts in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

Purpose: Silent brain infarcts (SBI) are frequently detected in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but it is unknown whether SBI are linked to autonomic dysfunction. We aimed to explore the association of autonomic dysfunction with SBI in AF patients. Methods: 1,358 AF patients without prior stroke or TIA underwent brain MRI and 5-min resting ECG. We divided our cohort into AF patients who presented in sinus rhythm (SR-group, n = 816) or AF (AF-group, n = 542). HRV triangular index (HRVI), standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals, mean heart rate, root mean square root of successive differences of normal-to-normal intervals, 5-min total power and power in the low frequency, high frequency and very low frequency range were calculated. Primary outcome was presence of SBI in the SR group, defined as large non-cortical or cortical infarcts. Secondary outcomes were SBI volumes and topography. Results: Mean age was 72 ± 9 years, 27% were female. SBI were detected in 10.5% of the SR group and in 19.9% of the AF group (p < 0.001). HRVI <15 was the only HRV parameter associated with the presence of SBI after adjustment for clinical covariates in the SR group [odds ratio (OR) 1.67; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–2.70; p = 0.037]. HRVI <15 was associated with larger brain infarct volumes [β (95% CI) −0.47 (−0.84; −0.09), p = 0.016] in the SR group and was more frequently observed in patients with right- than left-hemispheric SBI (p = 0.017). Conclusion: Impaired HRVI is associated with SBI in AF patients. AF patients with autonomic dysfunction might undergo systematic brain MRI screening to initiate intensified medical treatment

Characteristics and outcomes of atrial fibrillation in patients without traditional risk factors:an RE-LY AF registry analysis

Aims: Data on patient characteristics, prevalence, and outcomes of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients without traditional risk factors, often labelled 'lone AF', are sparse. Methods and results: The RE-LY AF registry included 15 400 individuals who presented to emergency departments with AF in 47 countries. This analysis focused on patients without traditional risk factors, including age >= 60years, hypertension, coronary artery disease, heart failure, left ventricular hypertrophy, congenital heart disease, pulmonary disease, valve heart disease, hyperthyroidism, and prior cardiac surgery. Patients without traditional risk factors were compared with age- and region-matched controls with traditional risk factors (1:3 fashion). In 796 (5%) patients, no traditional risk factors were present. However, 98% (779/796) had less-established or borderline risk factors, including borderline hypertension (130-140/80-90mmHg; 47%), chronic kidney disease (eGFR30; 19%), diabetes (5%), excessive alcohol intake (>14 units/week; 4%), and smoking (25%). Compared with patients with traditional risk factors (n=2388), patients without traditional risk factors were more often men (74% vs. 59%, P Conclusion: Almost all patients without traditionally defined AF risk factors have less-established or borderline risk factors. These patients have a favourable 1-year prognosis, but risk of AF-related re-hospitalization remains high. Greater emphasis should be placed on recognition and management of less-established or borderline risk factors

Patient clusters and cost trajectories in the Swiss Atrial Fibrillation cohort

Objective: Evidence on long-term costs of atrial fibrillation (AF) and associated factors is scarce. As part of the Swiss-AF prospective cohort study, we aimed to characterise AF costs and their development over time, and to assess specific patient clusters and their cost trajectories. Methods: Swiss-AF enrolled 2415 patients with variable duration of AF between 2014 and 2017. Patient clusters were identified using hierarchical cluster analysis of baseline characteristics. Ongoing yearly follow-ups include health insurance clinical and claims data. An algorithm was developed to adjudicate costs to AF and related complications. Results: A subpopulation of 1024 Swiss-AF patients with available claims data was followed up for a median (IQR) of 3.24 (1.09) years. Average yearly AF-adjudicated costs amounted to SFr5679 (€5163), remaining stable across the observation period. AF-adjudicated costs consisted mainly of inpatient and outpatient AF treatment costs (SFr4078; €3707), followed by costs of bleeding (SFr696; €633) and heart failure (SFr494; €449). Hierarchical analysis identified three patient clusters: cardiovascular (CV; N=253 with claims), isolated-symptomatic (IS; N=586) and severely morbid without cardiovascular disease (SM; N=185). The CV cluster and SM cluster depicted similarly high costs across all cost outcomes; IS patients accrued the lowest costs. Conclusion: Our results highlight three well-defined patient clusters with specific costs that could be used for stratification in both clinical and economic studies. Patient characteristics associated with adjudicated costs as well as cost trajectories may enable an early understanding of the magnitude of upcoming AF-related healthcare costs. Keywords: Atrial Fibrillation; Health Care Economics and Organization