The Analysis of Storm Surge in Manila Bay, The Philippines

In 2013, Typhoon Haiyan produced a storm surge over seven metres in San Pedro Bay in the Philippines that killed approximately 6,300 people. The event created significant public awareness on storm surges and exposed the lack of records and historical research in the Philippines. This study investigated the tidal height records during intense cyclone activities in 2016 and 2017 to provide accurate information about storm surge development in the largest and most populated coastal area in the country – Manila Bay. The results of this investigation indicated that there are consistencies in the characteristics of tropical cyclones that produce larger storm surges. The results also show that actual storm surge heights are generally smaller than predicted height values.En 2013, le typhon Haiyan a provoqué une onde de tempête de plus de sept mètres dans la Baie de San Pedro aux Philippines, faisant près de 6 300 victimes. Cet événement a provoqué une importante sensibilisation du public envers les ondes de tempête et a mis en évidence le manque d’archives et de recherches historiques aux Philippines. La présente étude a examiné les enregistrements des hauteurs des marées au cours d’activités cycloniques intenses en 2016 et 2017 afin de fournir des informations précises sur le développement d’ondes de tempête dans la zone côtière la plus étendue et la plus peuplée du pays, la Baie de Manille. Les résultats de cette étude indiquent des points communs dans les caractéristiques des cyclones tropicaux produisant de plus grandes ondes de tempête. Les résultats montrent également que la hauteur réelle des ondes de tempête est généralement inférieure à la hauteur prévue

Improving mental health outcomes: achieving equity through quality improvement

Objective. To investigate equity of patient outcomes in a psychological therapy service, following increased access achieved by a quality improvement (QI) initiative. Design. Retrospective service evaluation of health outcomes; data analysed by ANOVA, chi-squared and Statistical Process Control. Setting. A psychological therapy service in Westminster, London, UK. Participants. People living in the Borough of Westminster, London, attending the service (from either healthcare professional or self-referral) between February 2009 and May 2012. Intervention(s). Social marketing interventions were used to increase referrals, including the promotion of the service through local media and through existing social networks. Main Outcome Measure(s). (i) Severity of depression on entry using Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ9). (ii) Changes to severity of depression following treatment (ΔPHQ9). (iii) Changes in attainment of a meaningful improvement in condition assessed by a key performance indicator. Results. Patients from areas of high deprivation entered the service with more severe depression (M = 15.47, SD = 6.75), com-pared with patients from areas of low (M = 13.20, SD = 6.75) and medium (M = 14.44, SD = 6.64) deprivation. Patients in low

What we know and what we need to know about graduate skills

The expansion of higher education has led to more graduates in the UK labour market. Despite government expectations, this expansion has not boosted national economic competitiveness. This article argues that current understanding of the impact of graduates’ skills is limited by methodological and conceptual narrowness in current research and that a broader research agenda is required. This agenda needs to cover not just the supply but also the demand, development and deployment of graduates’ skills and, as a consequence, distinguish between ‘graduate skills’ acquired in higher education and the ‘skills of graduates’ formed prior to, in and parallel to higher education

Does depression diagnosis and antidepressant prescribing vary by location? Analysis of ethnic density associations using a large primary-care dataset

BACKGROUND: Studies have linked ethnic differences in depression rates with neighbourhood ethnic density although results have not been conclusive. We looked at this using a novel approach analysing whole population data covering just over one million GP patients in four London boroughs. METHOD: Using a dataset of GP records for all patients registered in Lambeth, Hackney, Tower Hamlets and Newham in 2013 we investigated new diagnoses of depression and antidepressant use for: Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, black Caribbean and black African patients. Neighbourhood effects were assessed independently of GP practice using a cross-classified multilevel model. RESULTS: Black and minority ethnic groups are up to four times less likely to be newly diagnosed with depression or prescribed antidepressants compared to white British patients. We found an inverse relationship between neighbourhood ethnic density and new depression diagnosis for some groups, where an increase of 10% own-ethnic density was associated with a statistically significant (p < 0.05) reduced odds of depression for Pakistani [odds ratio (OR) 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.93], Indian (OR 0.88, CI 0.81-0.95), African (OR 0.88, CI 0.78-0.99) and Bangladeshi (OR 0.94, CI 0.90-0.99) patients. Black Caribbean patients, however, showed the opposite effect (OR 1.26, CI 1.09-1.46). The results for antidepressant use were very similar although the corresponding effect for black Caribbeans was no longer statistically significant (p = 0.07). CONCLUSION: New depression diagnosis and antidepressant use was shown to be less likely in areas of higher own-ethnic density for some, but not all, ethnic groups

Pneumothorax after computed tomography-guided lung biopsy: Utility of immediate post-procedure computed tomography and one-hour delayed chest radiography

Purpose To evaluate the utility of immediate post-procedure computed tomography (IPP-CT) and routine one-hour chest radiography (1HR-CXR) for detecting and managing pneumothorax in patients undergoing computed tomography (CT)-guided percutaneous lung biopsy. Materials and methods All CT-guided percutaneous lung biopsies performed between May 2014 and August 2021 at a single institution were included. Data from 275 procedures performed on 267 patients (147 men; mean age: 63.5 ± 14.1 years; range 18–91 years) who underwent routine 1HR-CXR were reviewed. Incidences of pneumothorax and procedure-related complications on IPP-CT and 1HR-CXR were recorded. Associated variables, including tract embolization methods, needle diameter/type, access site, lesion size, needle tract distance, and number of biopsy samples obtained were analyzed and compared between groups with and without pneumothorax. Results Post-procedure complications included pneumothorax (30.9%, 85/275) and hemoptysis (0.7%, 2/275). Pneumothorax was detected on IPP-CT and 1HR-CXR in 89.4% (76/85) and 100% (85/85), respectively. A chest tube was placed in 4% (11/275) of the cases. In 3.3% (9/275) of the cases, delayed pneumothorax was detected only on 1HR-CXR, but no patient in this group necessitated chest tube placement. The incidence of pneumothorax was not significantly different between tract embolization methods (p = 0.36), needle diameters (p = 0.36) and types (p = 0.33), access sites (p = 0.07), and lesion sizes (p = 0.88). On logistic regression, a lower biopsy sample number (OR = 0.49) was a protective factor, but a longer needle tract distance (OR = 1.16) was a significant risk factor for pneumothorax. Conclusion Following CT-guided percutaneous lung biopsy, pneumothorax detected on IPP-CT strongly indicates persistent pneumothorax on 1HR-CXR and possible chest tube placement. If no pneumothorax is identified on IPP-CT, follow-up 1HR-CXR may be required only for those who develop symptoms of pneumothorax

'Reaching the hard to reach' - lessons learned from the VCS (voluntary and community Sector). A qualitative study.

Background The notion 'hard to reach' is a contested and ambiguous term that is commonly used within the spheres of social care and health, especially in discourse around health and social inequalities. There is a need to address health inequalities and to engage in services the marginalized and socially excluded sectors of society. Methods This paper describes a pilot study involving interviews with representatives from eight Voluntary and Community Sector (VCS) organisations . The purpose of the study was to explore the notion of 'hard to reach' and perceptions of the barriers and facilitators to accessing services for 'hard to reach' groups from a voluntary and community sector perspective. Results The 'hard to reach' may include drug users, people living with HIV, people from sexual minority communities, asylum seekers, refugees, people from black and ethnic minority communities, and homeless people although defining the notion of the 'hard to reach' is not straight forward. It may be that certain groups resist engaging in treatment services and are deemed hard to reach by a particular service or from a societal stance. There are a number of potential barriers for people who may try and access services, including people having bad experiences in the past; location and opening times of services and how services are funded and managed. A number of areas of commonality are found in terms of how access to services for 'hard to reach' individuals and groups could be improved including: respectful treatment of service users, establishing trust with service users, offering service flexibility, partnership working with other organisations and harnessing service user involvement. Conclusions: If health services are to engage with groups that are deemed 'hard to reach' and marginalised from mainstream health services, the experiences and practices for engagement from within the VCS may serve as useful lessons for service improvement for statutory health services

Inequality, Fiscal Capacity and the Political Regime: Lessons from the Post-Communist Transition

Using panel data for twenty-seven post-communist economies between 1987-2003, we examine the nexus of relationships between inequality, fiscal capacity (defined as the ability to raise taxes efficiently) and the political regime. Investigating the impact of political reform we find that full political freedom is associated with lower levels of income inequality. Under more oligarchic (authoritarian) regimes, the level of inequality is conditioned by the state’s fiscal capacity. Specifically, oligarchic regimes with more developed fiscal systems are able to defend the prevailing vested interests at a lower cost in terms of social injustice. This empirical finding is consistent with the model developed by Acemoglu (2006). We also find that transition countries undertaking early macroeconomic stabilisation now enjoy lower levels of inequality; we confirm that education fosters equality and the suggestion of Commander et al (1999) that larger countries are prone to higher levels of inequality.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57211/1/wp831 .pd

Ethnic inequalities and pathways to care in psychosis in England: a systematic review and meta-analysis

© The Author(s). 2018Background: As part of a national programme to tackle ethnic inequalities, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of research on ethnic inequalities in pathways to care for adults with psychosis living in England and/or Wales. Methods: Nine databases were searched from inception to 03.07.17 for previous systematic reviews, including forward and backward citation tracking and a PROSPERO search to identify ongoing reviews. We then carried forward relevant primary studies from included reviews (with the latest meta-analyses reporting on research up to 2012), supplemented by a search on 18.10.17 in MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO and CINAHL for primary studies between 2012 and 2017 that had not been covered by previous meta-analyses. Results: Forty studies, all conducted in England, were included for our updated meta-analyses on pathways to care. Relative to the White reference group, elevated rates of civil detentions were found for Black Caribbean (OR = 3.43, 95% CI = 2.68 to 4.40, n = 18), Black African (OR = 3.11, 95% CI = 2.40 to 4.02, n = 6), and South Asian patients (OR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.12, n = 10). Analyses of each Mental Health Act section revealed significantly higher rates for Black people under (civil) Section 2 (OR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.11 to 2.11, n = 3). Rates in repeat admissions were significantly higher than in first admission for South Asian patients (between-group difference p < 0.01). Some ethnic groups had more police contact (Black African OR = 3.60, 95% CI = 2.15 to 6.05, n = 2; Black Caribbean OR = 2.64, 95% CI = 1.88 to 3.72, n = 8) and criminal justice system involvement (Black Caribbean OR = 2.76, 95% CI = 2.02 to 3.78, n = 5; Black African OR = 1.92, 95% CI = 1.32 to 2.78, n = 3). The White Other patients also showed greater police and criminal justice system involvement than White British patients (OR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.03 to 2.15, n = 4). General practitioner involvement was less likely for Black than the White reference group. No significant variations over time were found across all the main outcomes. Conclusions: Our updated meta-analyses reveal persisting but not significantly worsening patterns of ethnic inequalities in pathways to psychiatric care, particularly affecting Black groups. This provides a comprehensive evidence base from which to inform policy and practice amidst a prospective Mental Health Act reform. Trial registration: CRD42017071663Peer reviewedFinal Published versio