54 research outputs found

    Transforming Clinical Data into Actionable Prognosis Models: Machine-Learning Framework and Field-Deployable App to Predict Outcome of Ebola Patients

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    We introduce a machine-learning framework and field-deployable app to predict outcome of Ebola patients from their initial clinical symptoms. Recent work from other authors also points out to the clinical factors that can be used to better understand patient prognosis, but there is currently no predictive model that can be deployed in the field to assist health care workers. Mobile apps for clinical diagnosis and prognosis allow using more complex models than the scoring protocols that have been traditionally favored by clinicians, such as Apgar and MTS. Furthermore, the WHO Ebola Interim Assessment Panel has recently concluded that innovative tools for data collection, reporting, and monitoring are needed for better response in future outbreaks. However, incomplete clinical data will continue to be a serious problem until more robust and standardized data collection systems are in place. Our app demonstrates how systematic data collection could lead to actionable knowledge, which in turn would trigger more and better collection, further improving the prognosis models and the app, essentially creating a virtuous cycle.Organismic and Evolutionary Biolog

    Genomic surveillance elucidates Ebola virus origin and transmission during the 2014 outbreak

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    In its largest outbreak, Ebola virus disease is spreading through Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Nigeria. We sequenced 99 Ebola virus genomes from 78 patients in Sierra Leone to ~2000× coverage. We observed a rapid accumulation of interhost and intrahost genetic variation, allowing us to characterize patterns of viral transmission over the initial weeks of the epidemic. This West African variant likely diverged from central African lineages around 2004, crossed from Guinea to Sierra Leone in May 2014, and has exhibited sustained human-to-human transmission subsequently, with no evidence of additional zoonotic sources. Because many of the mutations alter protein sequences and other biologically meaningful targets, they should be monitored for impact on diagnostics, vaccines, and therapies critical to outbreak response.Organismic and Evolutionary Biolog

    ALL Operation Outbreak simulations

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    <p>See the file format.txt for a full description of the format of all the included files.</p&gt
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