A hybrid GIS and AHP approach for modelling actual and future forest fire risk under climate change accounting water resources attenuation role

none4siForest wildfires usually occur due to natural processes such as lightning and volcanic eruptions, but at the same time they are also an eect of uncontrolled and illegal anthropogenic activities. Dierent factors can influence forest wildfires, like the type of vegetation, morphology, climate, and proximity to human activities. A precise evaluation of forest fire issues and of the countermeasures needed to limit their impact could be satisfactory especially when forest fire risk (FFR) mapping is available. Here, we proposed an FFR evaluation methodology based on Geographic Information System (GIS) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The study area is the Campania region (Southern Italy) that, for the last 30 years, has been aected by numerous wildfires. The proposed methodology analyzed 12 factors, and AHP was used for weight assignment, oering a new approach to some parameters. The method divided the study area into five risk classes, from very low to very high. Validation with fire alerts showed a good correlation between observed and predicted fires (0.79 R2). Analyzing the climate projections, a future FFR for 2040 was also assessed. The proposed methodology represents a reliable screening tool to identify areas under forest fire risk, and can help authorities to direct preventive actions.openBusico G.; Giuditta E.; Kazakis N.; Colombani N.Busico, G.; Giuditta, E.; Kazakis, N.; Colombani, N

A hybrid GIS and AHP approach for modelling actual and future forest fire risk under climate change accounting water resources attenuation role

Forest wildfires usually occur due to natural processes such as lightning and volcanic eruptions, but at the same time they are also an eect of uncontrolled and illegal anthropogenic activities. Dierent factors can influence forest wildfires, like the type of vegetation, morphology, climate, and proximity to human activities. A precise evaluation of forest fire issues and of the countermeasures needed to limit their impact could be satisfactory especially when forest fire risk (FFR) mapping is available. Here, we proposed an FFR evaluation methodology based on Geographic Information System (GIS) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The study area is the Campania region (Southern Italy) that, for the last 30 years, has been aected by numerous wildfires. The proposed methodology analyzed 12 factors, and AHP was used for weight assignment, oering a new approach to some parameters. The method divided the study area into five risk classes, from very low to very high. Validation with fire alerts showed a good correlation between observed and predicted fires (0.79 R2). Analyzing the climate projections, a future FFR for 2040 was also assessed. The proposed methodology represents a reliable screening tool to identify areas under forest fire risk, and can help authorities to direct preventive actions

Modeling soil nitrate accumulation and leaching in conventional and conservation agriculture cropping systems

Nitrate is a major groundwater inorganic contaminant that is mainly due to fertilizer leaching. Compost amendment can increase soils' organic substances and thus promote denitrification in intensively cultivated soils. In this study, two agricultural plots located in the Padana plain (Ferrara, Italy) were monitored and modeled for a period of 2.7 years. One plot was initially amended with 30 t/ha of compost, not tilled, and amended with standard fertilization practices, while the other one was run with standard fertilization and tillage practices. Monitoring was performed continuously via soil water probes (matric potential) and discontinuously via auger core profiles (major nitrogen species) before and after each cropping season. A HYDRUS-1D numerical model was calibrated and validated versus observed matric potential and nitrate, ammonium, and bromide (used as tracers). Model performance was judged satisfactory and the results provided insights on water and nitrogen balances for the two different agricultural practices tested here. While water balance and retention time in the vadose zone were similar in the two plots, nitrate leaching was less pronounced in the plot amended with compost due to a higher denitrification rate. This study provides clear evidence that compost addition and no-tillage (conservation agriculture) can diminish nitrate leaching to groundwater, with respect to standard agricultural practices

Quantifying the impact of evapotranspiration at the aquifer scale via groundwater modelling and MODIS Data

none4noIn shallow alluvial aquifers characterized by coarse sediments, the evapotranspiration rates from groundwater are often not accounted for due to their low capillarity. Nevertheless, this assumption can lead to errors in the hydrogeological balance estimation. To quantify such impacts, a numerical flow model using MODFLOW was set up for the Tronto river alluvial aquifer (Italy). Different estimates of evapotranspiration rates were retrieved from the online Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) database and used as input values. The numerical model was calibrated against piezometric heads collected in two snapshots (mid-January 2007 and mid-June 2007) in monitoring wells distributed along the whole alluvial aquifer. The model performance was excellent, with all the statistical parameters indicating very good agreement between calculated and observed heads. The model validation was performed using baseflow data of the Tronto river compared with the calculated aquifer-river exchanges in both of the simulated periods. Then, a series of numerical scenarios indicated that, although the model performance did not vary appreciably regardless of whether it included evapotranspiration from groundwater, the aquifer-river exchanges were influenced significantly. This study showed that evapotranspiration from shallow groundwater accounts for up to 21% of the hydrogeological balance at the aquifer scale and that baseflow observations are pivotal in quantifying the evapotranspiration impact.openColombani N.; Gaiolini M.; Busico G.; Postacchini M.Colombani, N.; Gaiolini, M.; Busico, G.; Postacchini, M

Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of agricultural land to water and nitrogen losses: case studies in Italy and Greece

Abstract. LOS indices (abbr. of Losses) can be used for the assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of agricultural land to water and nitrogen losses through percolation and runoff. The indices were applied on the lowland region of Ferrara Province (FP) in Italy and the upland region of Sarigkiol Basin (SB) in Greece. The most vulnerable zones in FP were the coastal areas consisting of high permeability sandy dunes and the areas close to riverbanks and palaeochannels, and in SB were the areas characterized by high slopes and high permeability soils at high altitude and areas belonging to the upper part of the alluvial plain close to the boundaries between agricultural land and mountainous regions. The application of LOS indices highlighted the specific features of both lowland and upland regions that contribute to water and nitrogen losses and showed their ability for use as tools in designing environmental management plans

Monitoring and modelling interactions between the montagna dei fiori aquifer and the castellano stream (Central Apennines, Italy)

Groundwater is the most used water resource around the world, but due to population growth and climate change the alluvial lowland aquifers are often polluted and over-exploited. Thus, more and more frequently water managers need to shift their attention to mountain regions to identify groundwater resources for drinking purposes. This study presents a monitoring and modelling approach that allowed to quantify the inflow from the "Montagna dei Fiori" fractured aquifer to the Castellano stream. Continuous monitoring of flow discharge and temperature during an entire hydrological year (2018-2019) at two monitoring stations along the stream allowed to discriminate between the baseflow (on average, 0.891 m3/s) and the run-off (on average, 0.148 m3/s) components. A hydrogeological basin-wide numerical flow model (using MODFLOW-2005) was set up using information from hydrogeological and geomechanical surveys. The model was calibrated using the daily baseflow observations made in the Castellano stream (R2 = 0.75). The calibrated model allowed to quantify groundwater/surface water interactions. After an automated sensitivity analysis (using MODFLOW-2000), the recharge was found to be the most uncertain parameter, followed by the hydraulic conductivity zonation. This methodology could be applied in other mountain regions where groundwater monitoring networks are usually lacking to improve water resources management

Nitrogen budget of Short Rotation forests amended with digestate in highly permeable soils

Bioenergy crops are a promising option for integrating fossil fuels and achieving European environmental targets. Among these, Short Rotation Forestry (SRF) crops and biogas plants have been considered an opportunity for sustainable agricultural development due to their environmental benefits. In this case study, an N balance was performed by comparing an SRF Platanus hispanica plantation with a permanent meadow, both located in an area with highly permeable soils, using two different amounts of organic fertilization (digestate) for each system (0, 170 and 340 kg-N ha−1 y−1). The results obtained indicate that, in the presence of highly permeable soils, the SRF is not effective in retaining N during the initial stage of growth, despite the use of a suitable application rate of digestate. Higher N leaching rates occurred in SRF crops compared to permanent meadows. Moreover, the N potential removal rate did not vary proportionally with the applied dose of digestate. To avoid N leaching excess, the annual applied N should be not only within 170 kg-N ha−1 y−1 (Nitrate Directive legal limits for nitrate vulnerable zone) but should also follow precise and accurate distribution practices, like: controlled grassing between the tree rows and soil’s minimum tillage immediately after the digestate spreading

DISTRIBUTIONS ISOTOPIQUES DES PRODUITS DE TRANSFERTS TRÈS INÉLASTIQUES ENTRE IONS LOURDS

On compare les distributions isotopiques expérimentales des produits de transfert très inélastiques obtenus par les réactions 40Ca (284 MeV) + 40Ca et 40Ar (295 MeV) + 232Th

Actual and forecasted vulnerability assessment to seawater intrusion via galdit-susi in the volturno river mouth (Italy)

Coastal areas have become increasingly vulnerable to groundwater salinization, especially in the last century, due to the combined effects of climate change and growing anthropization. In this study, a novel methodology named GALDIT-SUSI was applied in the floodplain of the Volturno River mouth for the current (2018) and future (2050) evaluation of seawater intrusion accounting for the expected subsidence and groundwater salinization rates. Several input variables such as digital surface model, land use classification, subsidence rate and drainage system have been mapped via remote sensing resources. The current assessment highlights how areas affected by salinization coincide with the semiperennial lagoons and inland depressed areas where paleosaline groundwaters are present. The future assessment (2050) shows a marked increase of salinization vulnerability in the coastal strip and in the most depressed areas. The results highlight that the main vulnerability driver is the Revelle index, while predicted subsidence and recharge rates will only slightly affect groundwater salinization. This case study indicates that GALDIT-SUSI is a reliable and easy-to-use tool for the assessment of groundwater salinization in many coastal regions of the world

Loss of Pediatric Kidney Grafts During the “High–Risk Age Window”: Insights From Pediatric Liver and Simultaneous Liver–Kidney Recipients

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/110551/1/ajt12985.pd