Balancing the conservation of wildlife habitat with road access for subsistence hunting in Yakutat, Alaska

Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2008"This thesis was an interdisciplinary investigation with the goal of balancing the conservation of wildlife habitat with road access for subsistence hunting in Yakutat, Alaska. The problem posed by land managers and subsistence moose hunters revolved around the use of off-highway vehicles (OHVs; e.g. 'four-wheelers') for subsistence moose hunting and the potential disturbance OHVs have on moose. This complex social-ecological problem is becoming an increasingly common management dilemma faced by rural mixed cash-subsistence communities across the Circumpolar North. I addressed this problem in two chapters with a combination of methods from wildlife ecology, landscape modeling, subsistence land-use, and scenario planning. The data used for analysis in Chapter 1 was derived from a three-year moose GPS-collar dataset, remote sensing imagery, and mapped routes. I modeled moose distribution with multi-scale, seasonal and sex-specific resource selection functions in a GIS. The best-fit models suggested female moose were displaced by OHV routes. Male moose were displaced by routes or areas where routes were in close proximity to primary forage. A combined pattern of route avoidance was quantified beyond approximately 1 km of total vehicle travel/km²/day. Chapter 2 describes the application of distribution models from Chapter 1 to a social-ecological assessment of route closures. Meetings with land managers and moose hunters were conducted to identify their respective values and management goals. Then I evaluated the effect of four road closure scenarios on moose habitat and hunting access. A measure of hunting access was evaluated with interviews about hunter land-use patterns, as well as the mapping of harvest areas in a GIS. The results of the scenario evaluation showed the spatial arrangement of routes influenced the total amount of high probability moose habitat and access to preferred harvest areas. A balance in the conservation of wildlife habitat and the maintenance of hunting access may be found in the closure of routes through valuable moose habitat and the spatial arrangement of future routes around valuable moose habitat, within reach of important harvest areas. The results of the analysis and interdisciplinary approach may prove useful to land managers who must evaluate the trade-offs between wildlife habitat conservation and the increasing use of motorized access for contemporary subsistence hunting practices"--Leaf iiiAlaska EPSCoR, RAP, UAS Department of Natural Sciences, and the UAF Department of Biology & Wildlif

Climate Change Sensitivity Index for Pacific Salmon Habitat in Southeast Alaska

<div><p>Global climate change may become one of the most pressing challenges to Pacific Salmon conservation and management for southeast Alaska in the 21^st Century. Predicted hydrologic change associated with climate change will likely challenge the ability of specific stocks to adapt to new flow regimes and resulting shifts in spawning and rearing habitats. Current research suggests egg-to-fry survival may be one of the most important freshwater limiting factors in Pacific Salmon's northern range due to more frequent flooding events predicted to scour eggs from mobile spawning substrates. A watershed-scale hydroclimatic sensitivity index was developed to map this hypothesis with an historical stream gauge station dataset and monthly multiple regression-based discharge models. The relative change from present to future watershed conditions predicted for the spawning and incubation period (September to March) was quantified using an ensemble global climate model average (ECHAM5, HadCM3, and CGCM3.1) and three global greenhouse gas emission scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) projected to the year 2080. The models showed the region's diverse physiography and climatology resulted in a relatively predictable pattern of change: northern mainland and steeper, snow-fed mountainous watersheds exhibited the greatest increases in discharge, an earlier spring melt, and a transition into rain-fed hydrologic patterns. Predicted streamflow increases for all watersheds ranged from approximately 1-fold to 3-fold for the spawning and incubation period, with increased peak flows in the spring and fall. The hydroclimatic sensitivity index was then combined with an index of currently mapped salmon habitat and species diversity to develop a research and conservation priority matrix, highlighting potentially vulnerable to resilient high-value watersheds. The resulting matrix and observed trends are put forth as a framework to prioritize long-term monitoring plans, mitigation experiments, and finer-scale climate impact and adaptation studies.</p></div

The historical mean (1961–1990) temperature (°C), precipitation (mm), and modeled discharge (cubic feet per second) for the 41 analysis gauge station catchments in southeast, Alaska, USA.

<p>These are shown next to projected changes for the year 2080 using an ensemble global climate model average (ECHAM5, HadCM3, and CGCM3.1) and three global greenhouse gas emission scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) using multiple regression-based monthly discharge models.</p

Coefficients (β), standard error (SE), and adjusted R² values for the most parsimonious multiple regression-based monthly discharge models for southeast, Alaska, USA.

<p>Standard errors are reported in parentheses.</p><p>*p<0.10,</p><p>**p<0.05.</p

Differences in AIC scores (ΔAIC), weights (AIC<i>w</i>), and number of model parameters (<i>k</i>) used to develop monthly multiple regression-based discharge models for southeast, Alaska, USA.

<p>Differences in AIC scores (ΔAIC), weights (AIC<i>w</i>), and number of model parameters (<i>k</i>) used to develop monthly multiple regression-based discharge models for southeast, Alaska, USA.</p

The watersheds of southeast, Alaska, USA (n = 1784) showing the Pacific Salmon hydroclimatic sensitivity index for predicted hydrologic change.

<p>This was derived using multiple regression-based monthly discharge models, an ensemble global climate model average (ECHAM5, HadCM3, and CGCM3.1) for temperature and precipitation, and the A1B global greenhouse gas emission scenario projections for the year 2080 to illustrate regional trends.</p

BASIS: an internet resource for network modelling

There is a growing realisation that complex biological processes cannot be understood through the application of ever more reductionist experimental programs alone. Recognising this, we have a constructed a flexible web-service based modelling system called BASIS (Biology of Ageing e-Science Integration and Simulation), which facilitates model construction and development. In particular it allows users to store, share and simulate their models. The system is accessed through web-services using any language (e.g. Python or Java) or under any operating system (e.g. Linux or Windows)