Partition-dependent framing effects in lab and field prediction markets

Many psychology experiments show that individually judged probabilities of the same event can vary depending on the partition of the state space (a framing effect called "partition-dependence"). We show that these biases transfer to competitive prediction markets in which multiple informed traders are provided economic incentives to bet on their beliefs about events. We report results of a short controlled lab study, a longer field experiment (betting on the NBA playoffs and the FIFA World Cup), and naturally-occurring trading in macro-economic derivatives. The combined evidence suggests that partition-dependence can exist and persist in lab and field prediction markets

How psychological framing affects economic market prices in the lab and field

A fundamental debate in social sciences concerns how individual judgments and choices, resulting from psychological mechanisms, are manifested in collective economic behavior. Economists emphasize the capacity of markets to aggregate information distributed among traders into rational equilibrium prices. However, psychologists have identified pervasive and systematic biases in individual judgment that they generally assume will affect collective behavior. In particular, recent studies have found that judged likelihoods of possible events vary systematically with the way the entire event space is partitioned, with probabilities of each of N partitioned events biased toward 1/N. Thus, combining events into a common partition lowers perceived probability, and unpacking events into separate partitions increases their perceived probability. We look for evidence of such bias in various prediction markets, in which prices can be interpreted as probabilities of upcoming events. In two highly controlled experimental studies, we find clear evidence of partition dependence in a 2-h laboratory experiment and a field experiment on National Basketball Association (NBA) and Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA World Cup) sports events spanning several weeks. We also find evidence consistent with partition dependence in nonexperimental field data from prediction markets for economic derivatives (guessing the values of important macroeconomic statistics) and horse races. Results in any one of the studies might be explained by a specialized alternative theory, but no alternative theories can explain the results of all four studies. We conclude that psychological biases in individual judgment can affect market prices, and understanding those effects requires combining a variety of methods from psychology and economics

The concentration and biomagnification of trace metals and metalloids across four trophic levels in a marine food web

To be able to assess progress towards “Good Environmental Status” adopted across European Member States, and by the United Kingdom through its 3-stage Marine Strategy, contaminant concentrations and their biological effects need to be assessed in environmental samples by comparison to assessment criteria. This study examines the variability of concentrations (inter- and intra- species variation) of three priority heavy metals (Hg, Cd and Pb) and six additional trace metals and metalloids (As, Ni, Se, Zn, Cu and Cr) in twenty-three species across four trophic levels from different locations around Scotland. Trophic magnification factors (TMFs) were calculated using two methods for metals/metalloids possessing a significant trophic relationship (Hg, Cd, Cu, Ni and Zn) to refine and improve the application of TMFs to assess and predict biomagnification risk of metals/metalloids to biota in the environment. It was concluded that a reasonable balance in sample numbers of lower- versus higher-trophic level organisms is highly recommended when calculating TMFs and appropriate species selection is vital to ensure TMFs accurately represent the selected ecosystem

The concentration and biomagnification of PCBs and PBDEs across four trophic levels in a marine food web.

Contracting Parties to the OSPAR Convention for the Protection of the Maine Environment of the North-East Atlantic are required to undertake monitoring and assessment of both inorganic and organic contaminants. There is a requirement to assess contaminants across different trophic levels on an ecosystem-specific basis. However, this is currently constrained by the availability of relevant samples to cover the full range of trophic levels. This study investigates the variability (inter- and intra-species variation) of the concentrations and distributions of thirty-two polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners and nine polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) congeners in twenty-six species covering four trophic levels from different geographic locations around Scotland. Trophic magnification factors (TMFs) were calculated using a traditional method and a balanced method for both the ICES-7 PCBs and BDE47, to refine and improve the application of TMFs to assess and predict biomagnification risk to biota in the marine environment. There were clear differences in congener percentage distribution between sample categories and species, with differences influenced by physiological processes and eco-biological parameters. Trophic magnification was found to occur for the ICES-7 PCBs and BDE47 using the traditional method, with the highest degree of trophic magnification reported for CB52. An unbalanced dataset was found to influence the calculated TMF and in some cases, the overall conclusion of the trophic transfer of PCB and PBDE congeners. The balanced method is highly recommended for calculating TMFs to ensure that the TMF is a true indication of the biomagnification potential, particularly when conducting regional comparisons for which sampling requirements are difficult to achieve

Characterising encapsulated nuclear waste using cosmic-ray muon tomography

Tomographic imaging techniques using the Coulomb scattering of cosmic-ray muons have been shown previously to successfully identify and characterise low- and high-Z materials within an air matrix using a prototype scintillating-fibre tracker system. Those studies were performed as the first in a series to assess the feasibility of this technology and image reconstruction techniques in characterising the potential high-Z contents of legacy nuclear waste containers for the UK Nuclear Industry. The present work continues the feasibility study and presents the first images reconstructed from experimental data collected using this small-scale prototype system of low- and high-Z materials encapsulated within a concrete-filled stainless-steel container. Clear discrimination is observed between the thick steel casing, the concrete matrix and the sample materials assayed. These reconstructed objects are presented and discussed in detail alongside the implications for future industrial scenarios.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure

Localization Properties of the Chalker-Coddington Model

The Chalker Coddington quantum network percolation model is numerically pertinent to the understanding of the delocalization transition of the quantum Hall effect. We study the model restricted to a cylinder of perimeter 2M. We prove firstly that the Lyapunov exponents are simple and in particular that the localization length is finite; secondly that this implies spectral localization. Thirdly we prove a Thouless formula and compute the mean Lyapunov exponent which is independent of M.Comment: 29 pages, 1 figure. New section added in which simplicity of the Lyapunov spectrum and finiteness of the localization length are proven. To appear in Annales Henri Poincar

Neuroinflammation as an etiological trigger for depression comorbid with inflammatory bowel disease

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) suffer from depression at higher rates than the general population. An etiological trigger of depressive symptoms is theorised to be inflammation within the central nervous system. It is believed that heightened intestinal inflammation and dysfunction of the enteric nervous system (ENS) contribute to impaired intestinal permeability, which facilitates the translocation of intestinal enterotoxins into the blood circulation. Consequently, these may compromise the immunological and physiological functioning of distant non-intestinal tissues such as the brain. In vivo models of colitis provide evidence of increased blood–brain barrier permeability and enhanced central nervous system (CNS) immune activity triggered by intestinal enterotoxins and blood-borne inflammatory mediators. Understanding the immunological, physiological, and structural changes associated with IBD and neuroinflammation may aid in the development of more tailored and suitable pharmaceutical treatment for IBD-associated depression

Nitric Oxide PLIF Measurements in the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System (HYMETS)

Planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) of naturally occurring nitric oxide (NO) has been used to obtain instantaneous flow visualization images, and to make both radial and axial velocity measurements in the HYMETS (Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System) 400 kW arc-heated wind tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center. This represents the first application of NO PLIF flow visualization in HYMETS. Results are presented at selected facility run conditions, including some in a simulated Earth atmosphere (75% nitrogen, 20% oxygen, 5% argon) and others in a simulated Martian atmosphere (71% carbon dioxide, 24% nitrogen, 5% argon), for specific bulk enthalpies ranging from 6.5 MJ/kg to 18.4 MJ/kg. Flow visualization images reveal the presence of large scale unsteady flow structures, and indicate nitric oxide fluorescence signal over more than 70% of the core flow for specific bulk enthalpies below about 11 MJ/kg, but over less than 10% of the core flow for specific bulk enthalpies above about 16 MJ/kg. Axial velocimetry was performed using molecular tagging velocimetry (MTV). Axial velocities of about 3 km/s were measured along the centerline. Radial velocimetry was performed by scanning the wavelength of the narrowband laser and analyzing the resulting Doppler shift. Radial velocities of +/- 0.5 km/s were measured