The Zakai equation of nonlinear filtering for jump-diffusion observation: existence and uniqueness

This paper is concerned with the nonlinear filtering problem for a general Markovian partially observed system (X,Y), whose dynamics is modeled by correlated jump-diffusions having common jump times. At any time t, the sigma-algebra generated by the observation process Y provides all the available information about the signal X. The central goal of stochastic filtering is to characterize the filter which is the conditional distribution of X, given the observed data. It has been proved in Ceci-Colaneri (2012) that the filter is the unique probability measure-valued process satisfying a nonlinear stochastic equation, the so-called Kushner-Stratonovich equation (KS-equation). In this paper the aim is to describe the filter in terms of the unnormalized filter, which is solution to a linear stochastic differential equation, called the Zakai equation. We prove equivalence between strong uniqueness for the solution to the Kushner Stratonovich equation and strong uniqueness for the solution to the Zakai one and, as a consequence, we deduce pathwise uniqueness for the solutions to the Zakai equation by applying the Filtered Martingale Problem approach (Kurtz-Ocone (1988), Kurtz-Nappo (2011), Ceci-Colaneri (2012)). To conclude, we discuss some particular cases.Comment: 29 page

A class of recursive optimal stopping problems with applications to stock trading

In this paper we introduce and solve a class of optimal stopping problems of recursive type. In particular, the stopping payoff depends directly on the value function of the problem itself. In a multi-dimensional Markovian setting we show that the problem is well posed, in the sense that the value is indeed the unique solution to a fixed point problem in a suitable space of continuous functions, and an optimal stopping time exists. We then apply our class of problems to a model for stock trading in two different market venues and we determine the optimal stopping rule in that case.Comment: 35 pages, 2 figures. In this version, we provide a general analysis of a class of recursive optimal stopping problems with both finite-time and infinite-time horizon. We also discuss other application

Hedging of unit-linked life insurance contracts with unobservable mortality hazard rate via local risk-minimization

In this paper we investigate the local risk-minimization approach for a combined financial-insurance model where there are restrictions on the information available to the insurance company. In particular we assume that, at any time, the insurance company may observe the number of deaths from a specific portfolio of insured individuals but not the mortality hazard rate. We consider a financial market driven by a general semimartingale and we aim to hedge unit-linked life insurance contracts via the local risk-minimization approach under partial information. The F\"ollmer-Schweizer decomposition of the insurance claim and explicit formulas for the optimal strategy for pure endowment and term insurance contracts are provided in terms of the projection of the survival process on the information flow. Moreover, in a Markovian framework, we reduce to solve a filtering problem with point process observations.Comment: 27 page

The F\"ollmer-Schweizer decomposition under incomplete information

In this paper we study the F\"ollmer-Schweizer decomposition of a square integrable random variable $\xi$ with respect to a given semimartingale $S$ under restricted information. Thanks to the relationship between this decomposition and that of the projection of $\xi$ with respect to the given information flow, we characterize the integrand appearing in the F\"ollmer-Schweizer decomposition under partial information in the general case where $\xi$ is not necessarily adapted to the available information level. For partially observable Markovian models where the dynamics of $S$ depends on an unobservable stochastic factor $X$, we show how to compute the decomposition by means of filtering problems involving functions defined on an infinite-dimensional space. Moreover, in the case of a partially observed jump-diffusion model where $X$ is described by a pure jump process taking values in a finite dimensional space, we compute explicitly the integrand in the F\"ollmer-Schweizer decomposition by working with finite dimensional filters.Comment: 22 page

A Benchmark Approach to Risk-Minimization under Partial Information

In this paper we study a risk-minimizing hedging problem for a semimartingale incomplete financial market where d+1 assets are traded continuously and whose price is expressed in units of the num\'{e}raire portfolio. According to the so-called benchmark approach, we investigate the (benchmarked) risk-minimizing strategy in the case where there are restrictions on the available information. More precisely, we characterize the optimal strategy as the integrand appearing in the Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe decomposition of the benchmarked claim under partial information and provide its description in terms of the integrands in the classical Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe decomposition under full information via dual predictable projections. Finally, we apply the results in the case of a Markovian jump-diffusion driven market model where the assets prices dynamics depend on a stochastic factor which is not observable by investors.Comment: 31 page

Pairs Trading under Drift Uncertainty and Risk Penalization

In this work, we study a dynamic portfolio optimization problem related to pairs trading, which is an investment strategy that matches a long position in one security with a short position in another security with similar characteristics. The relationship between pairs, called a spread, is modeled by a Gaussian mean-reverting process whose drift rate is modulated by an unobservable continuous-time, finite-state Markov chain. Using the classical stochastic filtering theory, we reduce this problem with partial information to the one with full information and solve it for the logarithmic utility function, where the terminal wealth is penalized by the riskiness of the portfolio according to the realized volatility of the wealth process. We characterize optimal dollar-neutral strategies as well as optimal value functions under full and partial information and show that the certainty equivalence principle holds for the optimal portfolio strategy. Finally, we provide a numerical analysis for a toy example with a two-state Markov chain.Comment: 24 pages, 4 figure

Opinion influence and evolution in social networks: a Markovian agents model

In this paper, the effect on collective opinions of filtering algorithms managed by social network platforms is modeled and investigated. A stochastic multi-agent model for opinion dynamics is proposed, that accounts for a centralized tuning of the strength of interaction between individuals. The evolution of each individual opinion is described by a Markov chain, whose transition rates are affected by the opinions of the neighbors through influence parameters. The properties of this model are studied in a general setting as well as in interesting special cases. A general result is that the overall model of the social network behaves like a high-dimensional Markov chain, which is viable to Monte Carlo simulation. Under the assumption of identical agents and unbiased influence, it is shown that the influence intensity affects the variance, but not the expectation, of the number of individuals sharing a certain opinion. Moreover, a detailed analysis is carried out for the so-called Peer Assembly, which describes the evolution of binary opinions in a completely connected graph of identical agents. It is shown that the Peer Assembly can be lumped into a birth-death chain that can be given a complete analytical characterization. Both analytical results and simulation experiments are used to highlight the emergence of particular collective behaviours, e.g. consensus and herding, depending on the centralized tuning of the influence parameters.Comment: Revised version (May 2018

Crystal Structure of the Catalytic Trimer of Methanococcus jannaschii Aspartate Transcarbamoylase

The catalytic trimer of Methanococcus jannaschii aspartate transcarbamoylase is extremely heat stable, maintaining 75% of its activity after heat treatment for 60 min at 75 degrees C. We undertook its structural analysis in order to understand the molecular basis of its thermostability and gain insight on how its catalytic function adapts to high temperature. Several structural elements potentially contributing to thermostability were identified. These include: (i) changes in the amino acid composition such as a decrease in the thermolabile residues Gln and Asn, an increase in the charged residues Lys and Glu, an increase in Tyr and a decrease in Ala residues; (ii) a larger number of salt bridges, in particular, the improvement of ion-pair networks; (iii) shortening of the N-terminus and shortening of three loops. An interesting feature of the crystal structure is the association of two crystallographically independent catalytic subunits into a staggered complex with an intertrimer distance of 33.8 A. The active site appears similar to Escherichia coli. Upon substrate binding, smaller changes in the global orientation of domains and larger conformational changes of the active site residues are expected as compared to E. coli