The Slowdown in China's Carbon Emissions Growth in the New Phase of Economic Development

China's CO2 emissions have plateaued under its commitment to reaching peak carbon emissions before 2030 in order to mitigate global climate change. This commitment is aligned with China's turn toward more sustainable development, named “the new normal” phase. This study aims to explore the role of possible socioeconomic drivers of China's CO2 emission changes by using structural decomposition analysis (SDA) for 2002–2017. The results show deceleration of China's annual emissions growth from 10% (2002–2012) to 0.3% (2012–2017), which is mainly caused by gains in energy efficiency, deceleration of economic growth, and changes in consumption patterns. Gains in energy efficiency are the most important determinants, offsetting the increase by 49% during 2012–2017. The recent moderation of emission growth is also attributed to China's decelerating annual growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita from 12% (2002–2012) to 6% (2012–2017) and to the economic transformation to consumption-led patterns in the new normal phase

The Slowdown in China's Carbon Emissions Growth in the New Phase of Economic Development

China's CO2 emissions have plateaued under its commitment to reaching peak carbon emissions before 2030 in order to mitigate global climate change. This commitment is aligned with China's turn toward more sustainable development, named “the new normal” phase. This study aims to explore the role of possible socioeconomic drivers of China's CO2 emission changes by using structural decomposition analysis (SDA) for 2002–2017. The results show deceleration of China's annual emissions growth from 10% (2002–2012) to 0.3% (2012–2017), which is mainly caused by gains in energy efficiency, deceleration of economic growth, and changes in consumption patterns. Gains in energy efficiency are the most important determinants, offsetting the increase by 49% during 2012–2017. The recent moderation of emission growth is also attributed to China's decelerating annual growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita from 12% (2002–2012) to 6% (2012–2017) and to the economic transformation to consumption-led patterns in the new normal phase

Public Functions, Private Markets: Credit Registration by Aldermen and Notaries in the Low Countries, 1500-1800

Gelderblom, Hup, and Jonker explore financial market development in preindustrial Europe by examining the financial functions performed by aldermen and notaries. Using a new dataset of 12,000 credit transactions registered by these public officials in six different cities in the Low Countries between 1500 and 1780, we analyze who used their services, for which purposes, and at what price. We find that notaries and aldermen were very active in registering debt contracts, but failed to obtain a commanding or even strong position as financial intermediaries in the way Parisian notaries did. As they registered only a small fraction of local credit transactions, notaries and aldermen in the Low Countries never possessed the information advantage of their French counterparts. Our findings highlight the degree to which subtle regulatory differences profoundly affected the dynamics of financial market evolution

Cascade effects of global supply chains induced by regional conflicts increase global inequality

Regional conflicts have become prominent in triggering shocks on supply chains and cascade effects on resource management. Reliable assessments of the cascading pattern of production resources among sectors globally are missing. Here, we modeled global multisectoral production losses and the cascading pattern of a grain supply shock in the Russia–Ukraine regional conflict by utilizing a geographic input–output approach. We find that the most cascading losses emerged in the textile (17.04 % ± 0.72 %, 95 % confidence intervals) and food-processing sectors (16.85 % ± 0.5 %). The shock propagated in a “grain–processed food/livestock” direct chain and a “light manufacturing–heavy manufacturing/textile” indirect chain. Prolonged conflict and disrupted resource allocation decreased the efficiency of production recovery in low-income countries and amplified inequality of production resources. Our approach presents a quantitative framework for unexpected supply chain shocks. The findings support the case for production aid to low-income countries and circular supply chains for sustainable development.</p

Population ageing and deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution: a global analysis of economic cost

Background: The health impacts of ambient air pollution impose large costs on society. Although all people are exposed to air pollution, the older population (ie, those aged ≥60 years) tends to be disproportionally affected. As a result, there is growing concern about the health impacts of air pollution as many countries undergo rapid population ageing. We investigated the spatial and temporal variation in the economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient air pollution and its interaction with population ageing from 2000 to 2016 at global and regional levels. Methods: In this global analysis, we developed an age-adjusted measure of the value of a statistical life-year (VSLY) to estimate the economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution using Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 data and country-level socioeconomic information. First, we estimated the global age-specific and cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) attributable to PM2·5 pollution using the global exposure mortality model and global estimates of exposure at 0·1° × 0·1° (about 11 km × 11 km at the equator) resolution. Second, for each year between 2000 and 2016, we translated the YLLs within each age group into a health-related cost using a country-specific, age-adjusted measure of VSLY. Third, we decomposed the major driving factors that contributed to the temporal change in health costs related to PM2·5. Finally, we did a sensitivity test to analyse the variability of the estimated health costs to four alternative valuation measures. We identified the uncertainty intervals (UIs) from 1000 draws of the parameters and concentration–response functions by age, cause, country, and year. All economic values are reported in 2011 purchasing power parity-adjusted US dollars. All simulations were done with R, version 3.6.0. Findings: Globally, in 2016, PM2·5 was estimated to have caused 8·42 million (95% UI 6·50–10·52) attributable deaths, which was associated with 163·68 million (116·03–219·44) YLLs. In 2016, the global economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution for the older population was US$2·40 trillion (1·89–2·93) accounting for 59$4·09 trillion [3·19–5·05]). The economic cost per capita for the older population was $2739 (2160–3345) in 2016, which was 10 times that of the younger population (ie, those aged <60 years). By assessing the factors that contributed to economic costs, we found that increases in these factors changed the total economic cost by 77% for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, 21% for population ageing, 16% for population growth, −41% for age-specific mortality, and −0·4% for PM2·5 exposure. Interpretation: The economic cost of ambient PM2·5 borne by the older population almost doubled between 2000 and 2016, driven primarily by GDP growth, population ageing, and population growth. Compared with younger people, air pollution leads to disproportionately higher health costs among older people, even after accounting for their relatively shorter life expectancy and increased disability. As the world's population is ageing, the disproportionate health cost attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution potentially widens the health inequities for older people. Countries with severe air pollution and rapid ageing rates need to take immediate actions to improve air quality. In addition, strategies aimed at enhancing health-care services, especially targeting the older population, could be beneficial for reducing the health costs of ambient air pollution. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, and Qiushi Foundation