Epidemiological data accessibility in Brazil: Current challenges for an adequate response to emergencies

International audienceConcerns about data sharing and transparency during epidemiological emergencies are not new. Dye and colleagues have announced an initiative called Zika Open through which the manuscripts and respective data submitted to Bulletin of the World Health Organization would be publlished as open access from the date of submission onwards, under a Creative Commons License. This is an important initiative. Here we report challenges faced, particularly in Brazil, for timely, lawful access to governmental collected disease-notification data that are essential to understand the current Zika virus epidemic, and any future public health emergency

Modeling and control of malaria dynamics in fish farming regions

In this work we propose a model that represents the relation between fish ponds, the mosquito population and the transmission of malaria. It has been observed that in the Amazonic region of Acre, in the North of Brazil, fish farming is correlated to the transmission of malaria when carried out in artificial ponds that become breeding sites. Evidence has been found indicating that cleaning the vegetation from the edges of the crop tanks helps to control the size of the mosquito population. We use our model to determine the effective contribution of the fish tanks to the epidemic. The model consists of a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with jumps at the cleaning time, which act as impulsive controls. We study the asymptotic behaviour of the system in function of the intensity and periodicity of the cleaning, and the value of the parameters. In particular, we state sufficient conditions under which the mosquito population is exterminated or prevails, and under which the malaria is eradicated or becomes endemic. We prove our conditions by applying results for cooperative systems with concave nonlinearities

How heterogeneous is the dengue transmission profile in Brazil? A study in six Brazilian states

Dengue is a vector-borne disease present in most tropical countries, infecting an average of 50 to 100 million people per year. Socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors directly influence the transmission cycle of the dengue virus (DENV). In Brazil, these factors vary between regions producing different profiles of dengue transmission and challenging the epidemiological surveillance of the disease. In this article, we aimed at classifying the profiles of dengue transmission in 1,823 Brazilian municipalities, covering different climates, from 2010 to 2019. Time series data of dengue cases were obtained from six states: Ceará and Maranhão in the semiarid Northeast, Minas Gerais in the countryside, Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro in the tropical Atlantic coast, and Paraná in the subtropical region. To describe the time series, we proposed a set of epi-features of the magnitude and duration of the dengue epidemic cycles, totaling 13 indicators. Using these epi-features as inputs, a multivariate cluster algorithm was employed to classify the municipalities according to their dengue transmission profile. Municipalities were classified into four distinct dengue transmission profiles: persistent transmission (7.8%), epidemic (21.3%), episodic/epidemic (43.2%), and episodic transmission (27.6%). Different profiles were associated with the municipality’s population size and climate. Municipalities with higher incidence and larger populations tended to be classified as persistent transmission, suggesting the existence of critical community size. This association, however, varies depending on the state, indicating the importance of other factors. The proposed classification is useful for developing more specific and precise surveillance protocols for regions with different dengue transmission profiles, as well as more precise public policies for dengue prevention.This study was partially supported by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – CAPES - Finance Code 001. The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, publication decision or manuscript preparation.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Unveiling time in dose-response models to infer host susceptibility to pathogens

The biological effects of interventions to control infectious diseases typically depend on the intensity of pathogen challenge. As much as the levels of natural pathogen circulation vary over time and geographical location, the development of invariant efficacy measures is of major importance, even if only indirectly inferrable. Here a method is introduced to assess host susceptibility to pathogens, and applied to a detailed dataset generated by challenging groups of insect hosts (Drosophila melanogaster) with a range of pathogen (Drosophila C Virus) doses and recording survival over time. The experiment was replicated for flies carrying the Wolbachia symbiont, which is known to reduce host susceptibility to viral infections. The entire dataset is fitted by a novel quantitative framework that significantly extends classical methods for microbial risk assessment and provides accurate distributions of symbiont-induced protection. More generally, our data-driven modeling procedure provides novel insights for study design and analyses to assess interventions

Human visceral leishmaniasis and relationship with vector and canine control measures

OBJECTIVE: Estimate the coverage of control measures of visceral leishmaniasis and relate them with the occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis in endemic urban area. METHODS: Cases of human and canine visceral leishmaniasis were considered as study population and evaluated by a serological survey conducted in Araçatuba, state São Paulo, from 2007 to 2015. The cases of human visceral leishmaniasis were geocoded by the address of the patients and the canine disease by the address of the dogs’ owners. The coverage of serological survey, euthanasia, and insecticide spraying was calculated, as well as the canine seroprevalence and the incidence rates of human visceral leishmaniasis. The relationship between human visceral leishmaniasis and control measures was evaluated, as well as the seroprevalence by comparing maps and by linear regression. The relationship between the canine and the human disease was also evaluated by the Ripley’s K function. RESULTS: The incidence rates of human visceral leishmaniasis showed a period of decline (2007 to 2009) and a period of stability (2010 to 2015), a behavior similar to that of canine seroprevalence. In general, the coverage of control measures was low, and the non-association with the incidence of human visceral leishmaniasis can be a result of the period analyzed and of the small number of analyzed units (sectors of the Superintendence for the Control of Endemic Diseases). The distribution of human cases showed spatial dependence with the distribution of seropositive dogs from 2007 to 2009. CONCLUSIONS: This study reaffirmed the relationship between the occurrence of the disease in humans and dogs, it verified a decrease in the rates of visceral leishmaniasis in Araçatuba over time, even at low coverage of control activities. However, further studies are needed to determine if factors beyond monitoring and control measures are involved in the reduction of incidences.OBJETIVO: Estimar a cobertura das atividades de controle da leishmaniose visceral e relacioná-las com a ocorrência de leishmaniose visceral em humanos em área urbana endêmica. MÉTODOS: Foram considerados como população de estudo os casos de leishmaniose visceral em humanos e em cães avaliados por inquérito sorológico censitário realizado em Araçatuba, SP, de 2007 a 2015. Os casos de leishmaniose visceral em humanos foram geocodificados pelo endereço de residência dos pacientes e, os cães, pelo endereço de residências dos respectivos tutores. Foram calculadas as coberturas do inquérito sorológico, da eutanásia e de borrifação de inseticida, as soroprevalências caninas e as taxas de incidência de leishmaniose visceral em humanos. A relação entre a leishmaniose visceral em humanos e as medidas de controle, bem como a soroprevalência foram avaliadas por comparação de mapas e por meio de regressão linear. A relação entre a doença canina e a humana também foi avaliada por meio da função K de Ripley. RESULTADOS: As taxas de incidência de leishmaniose visceral em humanos apresentaram um período de declínio (2007 a 2009) e um período de estabilidade (2010 a 2015), comportamento semelhante ao das soroprevalências caninas. Em geral, a cobertura das medidas de controle foi baixa e a não associação com a incidência de leishmaniose visceral em humanos pode ser consequência do período analisado e do número pequeno de unidades analisadas (setores da Superintendência de Controle de Endemias). A distribuição dos casos humanos apresentou dependência espacial com a distribuição dos cães soropositivos de 2007 a 2009. CONCLUSÕES: Este trabalho reafirmou a relação entre a ocorrência da doença no homem e no cão, verificou a diminuição das taxas de leishmaniose visceral em humanos e em cães em Araçatuba ao longo do tempo, mesmo em baixa cobertura das atividades de controle. Entretanto, novos estudos são necessários para averiguar se fatores além das atividades de vigilância e controle estariam envolvidos na diminuição das incidências

Development, environmental degradation, and disease spread in the Brazilian Amazon.

The Amazon is Brazil's greatest natural resource and invaluable to the rest of the world as a buffer against climate change. The recent election of Brazil's president brought disputes over development plans for the region back into the spotlight. Historically, the development model for the Amazon has focused on exploitation of natural resources, resulting in environmental degradation, particularly deforestation. Although considerable attention has focused on the long-term global cost of "losing the Amazon," too little attention has focused on the emergence and reemergence of vector-borne diseases that directly impact the local population, with spillover effects to other neighboring areas. We discuss the impact of Amazon development models on human health, with a focus on vector-borne disease risk. We outline policy actions that could mitigate these negative impacts while creating opportunities for environmentally sensitive economic activities

Endemic and epidemic dynamics of cholera: the role of the aquatic reservoir

BACKGROUND: In the last decades, attention to cholera epidemiology increased, as cholera epidemics became a worldwide health problem. Detailed investigation of V. cholerae interactions with its host and with other organisms in the environment suggests that cholera dynamics is much more complex than previously thought. Here, I formulate a mathematical model of cholera epidemiology that incorporates an environmental reservoir of V. cholerae. The objective is to explore the role of the aquatic reservoir on the persistence of endemic cholera as well as to define minimum conditions for the development of epidemic and endemic cholera. RESULTS: The reproduction rate of cholera in a community is defined by the product of social and environmental factors. The importance of the aquatic reservoir depends on the sanitary conditions of the community. Seasonal variations of contact rates force a cyclical pattern of cholera outbreaks, as observed in some cholera-endemic communities. CONCLUSIONS: Further development on cholera modeling requires a better understanding of V. cholerae ecology and epidemiology. We need estimates of the prevalence of V. cholerae infection in endemic populations as well as a better description of the relationship between dose and virulence