810 research outputs found
The effects of policy expectations on crop supply, with an application to base updating
We develop a dynamic model to assess the effects of policy expectations on crop supply and illustrate the approach with estimates of the effects of base updating in U.S. crop programs. For corn and soybeans in the Corn Belt, the effect of base updating is relatively small because relevant crop alternatives are subject to similar policies and the alternatives are substitutes in production. Increasing acreage of one program crop to capture future payments from base updating reduces future payments from the alternative crop. We also use our model to assess the effect of base updating on acreage response to prices
Expansion, Geometry, and Gravity
In general-relativistic cosmological models, the expansion history, matter
content, and geometry are closely intertwined. In this brief paper, we clarify
the distinction between the effects of geometry and expansion history on the
luminosity distance. We show that the cubic correction to the Hubble law,
measured recently with high-redshift supernovae, is the first cosmological
measurement, apart from the cosmic microwave background, that probes directly
the effects of spatial curvature. We illustrate the distinction between
geometry and expansion with a toy model for which the supernova results already
indicate a curvature radius larger than the Hubble distance.Comment: 4 pages, 1 color figur
Sensitivity and threshold dynamics of Pinus strobus and Quercus spp. in response to experimental and naturally-occurring severe droughts
Increased drought frequency and severity are a pervasive global threat, yet the capacity of mesic temperate forests to maintain resilience in response to drought remains poorly understood. We deployed a throughfall removal experiment to simulate a once in a century drought in New Hampshire, USA, which coupled with the region-wide 2016 drought, intensified moisture stress beyond that experienced in the lifetimes of our study trees. To assess the sensitivity and threshold dynamics of two dominant northeastern tree genera (Quercus and Pinus), we monitored sap flux density (Js), leaf water potential and gas exchange, growth, and intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) for one pretreatment year (2015) and two treatment years (2016-17). Results showed that Js in pine (P. strobus) declined abruptly at a soil moisture threshold of 0.15 m3m-3 , while oak’s (Q. rubra and Q. velutina) threshold was 0.11 m3m-3 — a finding consistent with pine’s more isohydric strategy. Nevertheless, once oaks’ moisture threshold was surpassed, Js declined abruptly, suggesting that while oaks are well-adapted to moderate drought, they are highly susceptible to extreme drought. The radial growth reduction in response to the 2016 drought was more than twice as great for pine than for oaks (50% vs. 18% respectively). Despite relatively high precipitation in 2017, the oaks’ growth continued to decline (low recovery), whereas pine showed neutral (treatment) or improved (control) growth. iWUE increased in 2016 for both treatment and control pines, but only in treatment oaks. Notably, pines exhibited a significant linear relationship between iWUE and precipitation across years, whereas the oaks only showed a response during the driest conditions, further underscoring the different sensitivity thresholds for these species. Our results provide new insights into how interactions between temperate forest tree species’ contrasting physiologies and soil moisture thresholds influence their responses and resilience to extreme drought
Observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background and Implications for Cosmology and Large Scale Structure
Observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) are discussed, with
particular emphasis on current ground-based experiments and on future
satellite, balloon and interferometer experiments. Observational techniques and
the effects of contaminating foregrounds are highlighted. Recent CMB data is
used with large scale structure (LSS) data to constrain cosmological parameters
and the complementary nature of CMB, LSS and supernova distance data is
emphasized.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A., 1998, in pres
Cosmological dynamics of scalar fields with O(N) symmetry
In this paper, we study the cosmological dynamics of scalar fields with O(N)
symmetry in general potentials. We compare the phase space of the dynamical
systems of the quintessence and phantom and give the conditions for the
existence of various attractors as well as their cosmological implications. We
also show that the existence of tracking attractor in O(N) phantom models
require the potential with , which makes the models with
exponential potential possess no tracking attractor.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures; Replaced with the version to be published in
Classical and Quantum Gravity. Reference adde
First Estimations of Cosmological Parameters From BOOMERANG
The anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background radiation contains
information about the contents and history of the universe. We report new
limits on cosmological parameters derived from the angular power spectrum
measured in the first Antarctic flight of the BOOMERANG experiment. Within the
framework of inflation-motivated adiabatic cold dark matter models, and using
only weakly restrictive prior probabilites on the age of the universe and the
Hubble expansion parameter , we find that the curvature is consistent with
flat and that the primordial fluctuation spectrum is consistent with scale
invariant, in agreement with the basic inflation paradigm. We find that the
data prefer a baryon density above, though similar to, the
estimates from light element abundances and big bang nucleosynthesis. When
combined with large scale structure observations, the BOOMERANG data provide
clear detections of both dark matter and dark energy contributions to the total
energy density , independent of data from high redshift
supernovae.Comment: As submitted to PRD, revised longer version with an additional figur
The Quintessential CMB, Past & Future
The past, present and future of cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy
research is discussed, with emphasis on the Boomerang and Maxima balloon
experiments. These data are combined with large scale structure (LSS)
information and high redshift supernova (SN1) observations to explore the
inflation-based cosmic structure formation paradigm. Here we primarily focus on
a simplified inflation parameter set, {omega_b,omega_{cdm},Omega_{tot},
Omega_Q,w_Q, n_s,tau_C, sigma_8}. After marginalizing over the other cosmic and
experimental variables, we find the current CMB+LSS+SN1 data gives
Omega_{tot}=1.04\pm 0.05, consistent with (non-baroque) inflation theory.
Restricting to Omega_{tot}=1, we find a nearly scale invariant spectrum, n_s
=1.03 \pm 0.07. The CDM density, omega_{cdm}=0.17\pm 0.02, is in the expected
range, but the baryon density, omega_b=0.030\pm 0.004, is slightly larger than
the current nucleosynthesis estimate. Substantial dark energy is inferred,
Omega_Q\approx 0.68\pm 0.05, and CMB+LSS Omega_Q values are compatible with the
independent SN1 estimates. The dark energy equation of state, parameterized by
a quintessence-field pressure-to-density ratio w_Q, is not well determined by
CMB+LSS (w_Q<-0.3 at 95%CL), but when combined with SN1 the resulting w_Q<-0.7
limit is quite consistent with the w_Q=-1 cosmological constant case. Though
forecasts of statistical errors on parameters for current and future
experiments are rosy, rooting out systematic errors will define the true
progress.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figs., in Proc. CAPP-2000 (AIP), CITA-2000-6
Cosmological models from quintessence
A generalized quintessence model is presented which corresponds to a richer
vacuum structure that, besides a time-dependent, slowly varying scalar field,
contains a varying cosmological term. From first principles we determine a
number of scalar-field potentials that satisfy the constraints imposed by the
field equations and conservations laws, both in the conventional and
generalized quintessence models. Besides inverse-power law solutions, these
potentials are given in terms of hyperbolic functions or the twelve Jacobian
elliptic functions, and are all related to the luminosity distance by means of
an integral equation. Integration of this equation for the different solutions
leads to a large family of cosmological models characterized by luminosity
distance-redshift relations. Out of such models, only four appear to be able to
predict a required accelerating universe conforming to observations on
supernova Ia, at large or moderate redshifts.Comment: 9 pages, RevTex, to appear in Phys. Rev.
CMB Analysis of Boomerang & Maxima & the Cosmic Parameters {Omega_tot,Omega_b h^2,Omega_cdm h^2,Omega_Lambda,n_s}
We show how estimates of parameters characterizing inflation-based theories
of structure formation localized over the past year when large scale structure
(LSS) information from galaxy and cluster surveys was combined with the rapidly
developing cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, especially from the recent
Boomerang and Maxima balloon experiments. All current CMB data plus a
relatively weak prior probability on the Hubble constant, age and LSS points to
little mean curvature (Omega_{tot} = 1.08\pm 0.06) and nearly scale invariant
initial fluctuations (n_s =1.03\pm 0.08), both predictions of (non-baroque)
inflation theory. We emphasize the role that degeneracy among parameters in the
L_{pk} = 212\pm 7 position of the (first acoustic) peak plays in defining the
range upon marginalization over other variables. Though the CDM
density is in the expected range (\Omega_{cdm}h^2=0.17\pm 0.02), the baryon
density Omega_bh^2=0.030\pm 0.005 is somewhat above the independent 0.019\pm
0.002 nucleosynthesis estimate. CMB+LSS gives independent evidence for dark
energy (Omega_\Lambda=0.66\pm 0.06) at the same level as from supernova (SN1)
observations, with a phenomenological quintessence equation of state limited by
SN1+CMB+LSS to w_Q<-0.7 cf. the w_Q=-1 cosmological constant case.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figs., in Proc. IAU Symposium 201 (PASP), CITA-2000-6
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