The effects of policy expectations on crop supply, with an application to base updating

We develop a dynamic model to assess the effects of policy expectations on crop supply and illustrate the approach with estimates of the effects of base updating in U.S. crop programs. For corn and soybeans in the Corn Belt, the effect of base updating is relatively small because relevant crop alternatives are subject to similar policies and the alternatives are substitutes in production. Increasing acreage of one program crop to capture future payments from base updating reduces future payments from the alternative crop. We also use our model to assess the effect of base updating on acreage response to prices

Expansion, Geometry, and Gravity

In general-relativistic cosmological models, the expansion history, matter content, and geometry are closely intertwined. In this brief paper, we clarify the distinction between the effects of geometry and expansion history on the luminosity distance. We show that the cubic correction to the Hubble law, measured recently with high-redshift supernovae, is the first cosmological measurement, apart from the cosmic microwave background, that probes directly the effects of spatial curvature. We illustrate the distinction between geometry and expansion with a toy model for which the supernova results already indicate a curvature radius larger than the Hubble distance.Comment: 4 pages, 1 color figur

Sensitivity and threshold dynamics of Pinus strobus and Quercus spp. in response to experimental and naturally-occurring severe droughts

Increased drought frequency and severity are a pervasive global threat, yet the capacity of mesic temperate forests to maintain resilience in response to drought remains poorly understood. We deployed a throughfall removal experiment to simulate a once in a century drought in New Hampshire, USA, which coupled with the region-wide 2016 drought, intensified moisture stress beyond that experienced in the lifetimes of our study trees. To assess the sensitivity and threshold dynamics of two dominant northeastern tree genera (Quercus and Pinus), we monitored sap flux density (Js), leaf water potential and gas exchange, growth, and intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) for one pretreatment year (2015) and two treatment years (2016-17). Results showed that Js in pine (P. strobus) declined abruptly at a soil moisture threshold of 0.15 m3m-3 , while oak’s (Q. rubra and Q. velutina) threshold was 0.11 m3m-3 — a finding consistent with pine’s more isohydric strategy. Nevertheless, once oaks’ moisture threshold was surpassed, Js declined abruptly, suggesting that while oaks are well-adapted to moderate drought, they are highly susceptible to extreme drought. The radial growth reduction in response to the 2016 drought was more than twice as great for pine than for oaks (50% vs. 18% respectively). Despite relatively high precipitation in 2017, the oaks’ growth continued to decline (low recovery), whereas pine showed neutral (treatment) or improved (control) growth. iWUE increased in 2016 for both treatment and control pines, but only in treatment oaks. Notably, pines exhibited a significant linear relationship between iWUE and precipitation across years, whereas the oaks only showed a response during the driest conditions, further underscoring the different sensitivity thresholds for these species. Our results provide new insights into how interactions between temperate forest tree species’ contrasting physiologies and soil moisture thresholds influence their responses and resilience to extreme drought

Observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background and Implications for Cosmology and Large Scale Structure

Observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) are discussed, with particular emphasis on current ground-based experiments and on future satellite, balloon and interferometer experiments. Observational techniques and the effects of contaminating foregrounds are highlighted. Recent CMB data is used with large scale structure (LSS) data to constrain cosmological parameters and the complementary nature of CMB, LSS and supernova distance data is emphasized.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A., 1998, in pres

Cosmological dynamics of scalar fields with O(N) symmetry

In this paper, we study the cosmological dynamics of scalar fields with O(N) symmetry in general potentials. We compare the phase space of the dynamical systems of the quintessence and phantom and give the conditions for the existence of various attractors as well as their cosmological implications. We also show that the existence of tracking attractor in O(N) phantom models require the potential with $\Gamma<1/2$, which makes the models with exponential potential possess no tracking attractor.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures; Replaced with the version to be published in Classical and Quantum Gravity. Reference adde

First Estimations of Cosmological Parameters From BOOMERANG

The anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background radiation contains information about the contents and history of the universe. We report new limits on cosmological parameters derived from the angular power spectrum measured in the first Antarctic flight of the BOOMERANG experiment. Within the framework of inflation-motivated adiabatic cold dark matter models, and using only weakly restrictive prior probabilites on the age of the universe and the Hubble expansion parameter $h$, we find that the curvature is consistent with flat and that the primordial fluctuation spectrum is consistent with scale invariant, in agreement with the basic inflation paradigm. We find that the data prefer a baryon density $\Omega_b h^2$ above, though similar to, the estimates from light element abundances and big bang nucleosynthesis. When combined with large scale structure observations, the BOOMERANG data provide clear detections of both dark matter and dark energy contributions to the total energy density $\Omega_{\rm {tot}}$, independent of data from high redshift supernovae.Comment: As submitted to PRD, revised longer version with an additional figur

The Quintessential CMB, Past & Future

The past, present and future of cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy research is discussed, with emphasis on the Boomerang and Maxima balloon experiments. These data are combined with large scale structure (LSS) information and high redshift supernova (SN1) observations to explore the inflation-based cosmic structure formation paradigm. Here we primarily focus on a simplified inflation parameter set, {omega_b,omega_{cdm},Omega_{tot}, Omega_Q,w_Q, n_s,tau_C, sigma_8}. After marginalizing over the other cosmic and experimental variables, we find the current CMB+LSS+SN1 data gives Omega_{tot}=1.04\pm 0.05, consistent with (non-baroque) inflation theory. Restricting to Omega_{tot}=1, we find a nearly scale invariant spectrum, n_s =1.03 \pm 0.07. The CDM density, omega_{cdm}=0.17\pm 0.02, is in the expected range, but the baryon density, omega_b=0.030\pm 0.004, is slightly larger than the current nucleosynthesis estimate. Substantial dark energy is inferred, Omega_Q\approx 0.68\pm 0.05, and CMB+LSS Omega_Q values are compatible with the independent SN1 estimates. The dark energy equation of state, parameterized by a quintessence-field pressure-to-density ratio w_Q, is not well determined by CMB+LSS (w_Q<-0.3 at 95%CL), but when combined with SN1 the resulting w_Q<-0.7 limit is quite consistent with the w_Q=-1 cosmological constant case. Though forecasts of statistical errors on parameters for current and future experiments are rosy, rooting out systematic errors will define the true progress.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figs., in Proc. CAPP-2000 (AIP), CITA-2000-6

Cosmological models from quintessence

A generalized quintessence model is presented which corresponds to a richer vacuum structure that, besides a time-dependent, slowly varying scalar field, contains a varying cosmological term. From first principles we determine a number of scalar-field potentials that satisfy the constraints imposed by the field equations and conservations laws, both in the conventional and generalized quintessence models. Besides inverse-power law solutions, these potentials are given in terms of hyperbolic functions or the twelve Jacobian elliptic functions, and are all related to the luminosity distance by means of an integral equation. Integration of this equation for the different solutions leads to a large family of cosmological models characterized by luminosity distance-redshift relations. Out of such models, only four appear to be able to predict a required accelerating universe conforming to observations on supernova Ia, at large or moderate redshifts.Comment: 9 pages, RevTex, to appear in Phys. Rev.

CMB Analysis of Boomerang & Maxima & the Cosmic Parameters {Omega_tot,Omega_b h^2,Omega_cdm h^2,Omega_Lambda,n_s}

We show how estimates of parameters characterizing inflation-based theories of structure formation localized over the past year when large scale structure (LSS) information from galaxy and cluster surveys was combined with the rapidly developing cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, especially from the recent Boomerang and Maxima balloon experiments. All current CMB data plus a relatively weak prior probability on the Hubble constant, age and LSS points to little mean curvature (Omega_{tot} = 1.08\pm 0.06) and nearly scale invariant initial fluctuations (n_s =1.03\pm 0.08), both predictions of (non-baroque) inflation theory. We emphasize the role that degeneracy among parameters in the L_{pk} = 212\pm 7 position of the (first acoustic) peak plays in defining the $\Omega_{tot}$ range upon marginalization over other variables. Though the CDM density is in the expected range (\Omega_{cdm}h^2=0.17\pm 0.02), the baryon density Omega_bh^2=0.030\pm 0.005 is somewhat above the independent 0.019\pm 0.002 nucleosynthesis estimate. CMB+LSS gives independent evidence for dark energy (Omega_\Lambda=0.66\pm 0.06) at the same level as from supernova (SN1) observations, with a phenomenological quintessence equation of state limited by SN1+CMB+LSS to w_Q<-0.7 cf. the w_Q=-1 cosmological constant case.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figs., in Proc. IAU Symposium 201 (PASP), CITA-2000-6