Revisiting the Sunspot Number

Our knowledge of the long-term evolution of solar activity and of its primary modulation, the 11-year cycle, largely depends on a single direct observational record: the visual sunspot counts that retrace the last 4 centuries, since the invention of the astronomical telescope. Currently, this activity index is available in two main forms: the International Sunspot Number initiated by R. Wolf in 1849 and the Group Number constructed more recently by Hoyt and Schatten (1998a,b). Unfortunately, those two series do not match by various aspects, inducing confusions and contradictions when used in crucial contemporary studies of the solar dynamo or of the solar forcing on the Earth climate. Recently, new efforts have been undertaken to diagnose and correct flaws and biases affecting both sunspot series, in the framework of a series of dedicated Sunspot Number Workshops. Here, we present a global overview of our current understanding of the sunspot number calibration. While the early part of the sunspot record before 1800 is still characterized by large uncertainties due to poorly observed periods, the more recent sunspot numbers are mainly affected by three main inhomogeneities: in 1880-1915 for the Group Number and in 1947 and 1980-2014 for the Sunspot Number. The newly corrected series clearly indicates a progressive decline of solar activity before the onset of the Maunder Minimum, while the slowly rising trend of the activity after the Maunder Minimum is strongly reduced, suggesting that by the mid 18th century, solar activity had already returned to the level of those observed in recent solar cycles in the 20th century. We finally conclude with future prospects opened by this epochal revision of the Sunspot Number, the first one since Wolf himself, and its reconciliation with the Group Number, a long-awaited modernization that will feed solar cycle research into the 21st century

ON THE ORIGINS OF SOLAR EIT WAVES

Abstract : Approximately half of the large-scale coronal waves identified in images obtained by the Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory from 1997 March to 1998 June were associated with small solar flares with soft X-ray intensities below C class. The probability of a given flare of this intensity having an associated EIT wave is low. For example, of ~8,000 B-class flares occurring during this 15 month period, only 1% were linked to EIT waves. These results indicate the need for a special condition that distinguishes flares with EIT waves from the vast majority of flares that lack wave association. Various lines of evidence, including the fact that EIT waves have recently been shown to be highly associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), suggest that this special condition is a CME. A CME is not a sufficient condition for a detectable EIT wave, however, because we calculate that 5 times as many front-side CMEs as EIT waves occurred during this period, after taking the various visibility factors for both phenomena into account. In general, EIT wave association increases with CME speed and width

A Short-term ESPERTA-based Forecast Tool for Moderate-to-extreme Solar Proton Events

The ESPERTA (Empirical model for Solar Proton Event Real Time Alert) forecast tool has a Probability of Detection (POD) of 63% for all >10 MeV events with proton peak intensity ≥10 pfu (i.e., ≥S1 events, S1 referring to minor storms on the NOAA Solar Radiation Storms scale), from 1995 to 2014 with a false alarm rate (FAR) of 38% and a median (minimum) warning time (WT) of ∼4.8 (0.4) hr. The NOAA space weather scale includes four additional categories: moderate (S2), strong (S3), severe (S4), and extreme (S5). As S1 events have only minor impacts on HF radio propagation in the polar regions, the effective threshold for significant space radiation effects appears to be the S2 level (100 pfu), above which both biological and space operation impacts are observed along with increased effects on HF propagation in the polar regions. We modified the ESPERTA model to predict ≥S2 events and obtained a POD of 75% (41/55) and an FAR of 24% (13/54) for the 1995-2014 interval with a median (minimum) WT of ∼1.7 (0.2) hr based on predictions made at the time of the S1 threshold crossing. The improved performance of ESPERTA for ≥S2 events is a reflection of the big flare syndrome, which postulates that the measures of the various manifestations of eruptive solar flares increase as one considers increasingly larger events

Revisiting Empirical Solar Energetic Particle Scaling Relations I. Solar flares

Aims The possible influence of solar superflares on the near-Earth space radiation environment are assessed through the investigation of scaling laws between the peak proton flux and fluence of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with the solar flare soft X-ray peak photon flux. Methods We compiled a catalog of 65 well-connected (W20-90) SEP events during the last three solar cycles covering a period of $\sim$34 years (1984-2020) that were associated with flares of class $\geq$C6.0 and investigated the statistical relations between the recorded peak proton fluxes ($I_{P}$) and the fluences ($F_{P}$) at a set of integral energies from E $>$10; $>$30; $>$60; to $>$100 MeV versus the associated solar flare peak soft X-ray flux in the 1$-$8 A band ($F_{SXR}$). Based on the inferred relations, we calculate the integrated energy dependence of the peak proton flux ($I_{P}$) and fluence ($F_{P}$) of the SEP events, assuming that they follow an inverse power-law with respect to energy. Finally, we make use of simple physical assumptions, combining our derived scaling laws, and estimate the upper limits for $I_{P}$ and $F_{P}$ focusing on the flare associated with the strongest GLE yet directly observed (GLE 05 on 23 February 1956), and that inferred for the cosmogenic radionuclide based SEP event of AD774/775. Results We show that $I_{P}$ and $F_{P}$ scale with the solar flare SXR flux as $\propto$~$F_{SXR}^{5/6}$. For the AD774/775 event (with a re-scaled upper limit $F_{SXR}$ = X600) these scaling laws yield values of $F_{P}$ at E$>$200 MeV of $\sim$10$^{10}$ cm$^{-2}$ and $\sim$1.5 $\times$ 10$^{9}$ cm$^{-2}$ at E$>$430 MeV that are consistent with values inferred from the measurements of $^{14}$C and $^{10}$Be

The InterHourly-Variability (IHV) Index of Geomagnetic Activity and its Use in Deriving the Long-term Variation of Solar Wind Speed

We describe the derivation of the InterHourly Variability (IHV) index of geomagnetic activity. The IHV-index for a geomagnetic element is mechanically derived from hourly values as the sum of the unsigned differences between adjacent hours over a seven-hour interval centered on local midnight. The index is derived separately for stations in both hemispheres within six longitude sectors using only local night hours. It is intended as a long-term index. Available data allows derivation of the index back well into the 19th century. On a time scale of a 27-day Bartels rotation, IHV averages for stations with corrected geomagnetic latitude less than 55 degrees are strongly correlated with midlatitude range indices. Assuming a constant calibration of the aa-index we find that observed yearly values of aa before the year 1957 are 2.9 nT too small compared to values calculated from IHV using the regression constants based on 1980-2004. We interpret this discrepancy as an indication that the calibration of the aa index is in error before 1957. There is no such problem with the ap index. Rotation averages of IHV are also strongly correlated with solar wind parameters (BV^2). On a time scale of a year combining the IHV-index and the recently-developed Inter-Diurnal Variability (IDV) index (giving B) allows determination of solar wind speed, V, from 1890-present. Over the ~120-year series, the yearly mean solar wind speed varied from a low of 303 km/s in 1902 to a high value of 545 km/s in 2003. The calculated yearly values of the product BV using B and V separately derived from IDV and IHV agree quantitatively with (completely independent) BV derived from the amplitude of the diurnal variation of the H component in the polar caps since 1926 and sporadically beyond

Heliospheric Magnetic Field 1835-2009

We use recently acquired geomagnetic archival data to extend our long-term reconstruction of the HMF strength. The 1835-2009 HMF series is based on an updated and substantiated IDV series from 1872-onwards and on Bartels' extension, by proxy, of his u-series from 1835-1871. The new IDV series, termed IDV09, has excellent agreement (R^2 = 0.98; RMS = 0.3 nT) with the earlier IDV05 series, and also with the negative component of Love's extended (to 1905) Dst series (R^2 = 0.91). Of greatest importance to the community, in an area of research that has been contentious, comparison of the extended HMF series with other recent reconstructions of solar wind B for the last ~100 years yields a strong consensus between series based on geomagnetic data. Differences exist from ~1900-1910 but they are far smaller than the previous disagreement for this key interval of low solar wind B values which closely resembles current solar activity. Equally encouraging, a discrepancy with an HMF reconstruction based on 10Be data for the first half of the 20th century has largely been removed by a revised 10Be-based reconstruction published after we submitted this paper, although a remaining discrepancy for the years ~1885-1905 will need to be resolved

An impulsive geomagnetic effect from an early-impulsive flare

The geomagnetic “solar flare effect” (SFE) results from excess ionization in the Earth’s ionosphere, famously first detected at the time of the Carrington flare in 1859. This indirect detection of a flare constituted one of the first cases of “multimessenger astronomy,” whereby solar ionizing radiation stimulates ionospheric currents. Well-observed SFEs have few-minute time scales and perturbations of >10 nT, with the greatest events reaching above 100 nT. In previously reported cases the SFE time profiles tend to resemble those of solar soft X-ray emission, which ionizes the D-region; there is also a less-well-studied contribution from Lyman α. We report here a specific case, from flare SOL2024-03-10 (M7.4), in which an impulsive SFE deviated from this pattern. This flare contained an “early impulsive” component of exceptionally hard radiation, extending up to γ-ray energies above 1 MeV, distinctly before the bulk of the flare soft X-ray emission. We can characterize the spectral distribution of this early-impulsive component in detail, thanks to the modern extensive wavelength coverage. A more typical gradual SFE occurred during the flare’s main phase. We suggest that events of this type warrant exploration of the solar physics in the “impulse response” limit of very short time scales