Modeling Amazon Deforestation for Policy Purposes

Brazil has long ago removed most of the perverse government incentives that stimulated massive deforestation in the Amazon in the 70s and 80s, but one highly controversial policy remains: Road building. While data is now abundantly available due to the constant satellite surveillance of the Amazon, the analytical methods typically used to analyze the impact of roads on natural vegetation cover are methodologically weak and not very helpful to guide public policy. This paper discusses the respective weaknesses of typical GIS analysis and typical municipality level regression analysis, and shows what would be needed to construct an ideal model of deforestation processes. It also presents an alternative approach that is much less demanding in terms of modeling and estimation and more useful for policy makers as well.Deforestation, Amazon, Brazil, econometric modeling

Crisis intervention for people with severe mental illnesses

Background A particularly difficult challenge for community treatment of people with serious mental illnesses is the delivery of an acceptable level of care during the acute phases of severe mental illness. Crisis-intervention models of care were developed as a possible solution. Objectives To review the effects of crisis-intervention models for anyone with serious mental illness experiencing an acute episode compared to the standard care they would normally receive. If possible, to compare the effects of mobile crisis teams visiting patients' homes with crisis units based in home-like residential houses. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Schizophrenia Group’s Study-Based Register of Trials. There is no language, time, document type, or publication status limitations for inclusion of records in the register. This search was undertaken in 1998 and then updated 2003, 2006, 2010 and September 29, 2014. Selection criteria We included all randomised controlled trials of crisis-intervention models versus standard care for people with severe mental illnesses that met our inclusion criteria. Data collection and analysis We independently extracted data from these trials and we estimated risk ratios (RR) or mean differences (MD), with 95% confidence intervals (CI). We assessed risk of bias for included studies and used GRADE to create a 'Summary of findings' table. Main results The update search September 2014 found no further new studies for inclusion, the number of studies included in this review remains eight with a total of 1144 participants. Our main outcomes of interest are hospital use, global state, mental state, quality of life, participant satisfaction and family burden. With the exception of mental state, it was not possible to pool data for these outcomes. Crisis intervention may reduce repeat admissions to hospital (excluding index admissions) at six months (1 RCT, n = 369, RR 0.75 CI 0.50 to 1.13, high quality evidence), but does appear to reduce family burden (at six months: 1 RCT, n = 120, RR 0.34 CI 0.20 to 0.59, low quality evidence), improve mental state (Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) three months: 2 RCTs, n = 248, MD -4.03 CI -8.18 to 0.12, low quality evidence), and improve global state (Global Assessment Scale (GAS) 20 months; 1 RCT, n = 142, MD 5.70, -0.26 to 11.66, moderate quality evidence). Participants in the crisis-intervention group were more satisfied with their care 20 months after crisis (Client Satisfaction Questionnaire (CSQ-8): 1 RCT, n = 137, MD 5.40 CI 3.91 to 6.89, moderate quality evidence). However, quality of life scores at six months were similar between treatment groups (Manchester Short Assessment of quality of life (MANSA); 1 RCT, n = 226, MD -1.50 CI -5.15 to 2.15, low quality evidence). Favourable results for crisis intervention were also found for leaving the study early and family satisfaction. No differences in death rates were found. Some studies suggested crisis intervention to be more cost-effective than hospital care but all numerical data were either skewed or unusable. We identified no data on staff satisfaction, carer input, complications with medication or number of relapses. Authors' conclusions Care based on crisis-intervention principles, with or without an ongoing homecare package, appears to be a viable and acceptable way of treating people with serious mental illnesses. However only eight small studies with unclear blinding, reporting and attrition bias could be included and evidence for the main outcomes of interest is low to moderate quality. If this approach is to be widely implemented it would seem that more evaluative studies are still neede

Mitochondrial and chloroplast DNA-based phylogeny of Pelargonium (Geraniaceae)

Overall phylogenetic relationships within the genus Pelargonium (Geraniaceae) were inferred based on DNA sequences from mitochondrial(mt)-encoded nad1 b/c exons and from chloroplast(cp)-encoded trnL (UAA) 5' exon-trnF (GAA) exon regions using two species of Geranium and Sarcocaulon vanderetiae as outgroups. The group II intron between nad1 exons b and c was found to be absent from the Pelargonium, Geranium, and Sarcocaulon sequences presented here as well as from Erodium, which is the first recorded loss of this intron in angiosperms. Separate phylogenetic analyses of the mtDNA and cpDNA data sets produced largely congruent topologies, indicating linkage between mitochondrial and chloroplast genome inheritance. Simultaneous analysis of the combined data sets yielded a well-resolved topology with high clade support exhibiting a basic split into small and large chromosome species, the first group containing two lineages and the latter three. One large chromosome lineage (x = 11) comprises species from sections Myrrhidium and Chorisma and is sister to a lineage comprising P. mutans (x = 11) and species from section Jenkinsonia (x = 9). Sister to these two lineages is a lineage comprising species from sections Ciconium (x = 9) and Subsucculentia (x = 10). Cladistic evaluation of this pattern suggests that x = 11 is the ancestral basic chromosome number for the genus

The relative importance of local and landscape scale factors to chalk grassland butterflies

The relative importance of habitat and landscape for chalk grassland butterflies was investigated among a network of chalk grassland habitat patches. Local scale habitat selection models were derived from analyses on a single large chalk grassland site (Porton Down). Landscape scale models were . then derived from species-specific local scale variables added to variables measured in the patch network, which included Porton Down as a major source site. An investigation was also carried out as to whether landscapes cale processes were acting within Porton Down. Models showed that landscapes cale processes may be acting within the single, large site for some species. However, lack of patch definition and natural variations in local population densities may give rise to apparent landscapes cale processes within this site which fundamentally differ from true landscape scale processes. At the true landscape scale across the patch network, patch area was the most commonly included landscape scale variable in models, although only for five species. For one species, dark green fritillary Argynnis aglaja, distance from the major source site and average distance from other sites were of over-riding importance. For most species, local scale habitat and environment variables were sufficient to describe their presence or density among the patch network. Incidence Function Models were used to estimate metapopulation dynamic parameters for seven species, Both sensitivity to environmental stochasticity and colonisation ability were correlated with species' scores on canonical community analysis axes (related to local habitat, patch area, distance from source site and inter-patch'distance measures). This suggests that species conforming to conventional metapopulation models form an ecological continuum with those responding to local scale habitat and landscape scale processes in a less prescriptive fashion. Species groups with either restricted or widespread distributions appear to conform to a landscape connectivity model. Five ecologically similar species appear to be moving from the former to latter group across a 'connectivity threshold', possibly due to recent increases in larval food-plant availability in the wider landscape

The majority text debate: A study in New Testament text-critical method

The aim of textual criticism is to recover the original text of the New Testament. By studying and comparing the many extant manuscripts it is hoped to discover which of them, or the variants they contain, arc closest to the original Text In choosing between the many variant readings, New Testament scholars developed the method of grouping manuscripts into different fom1s of text which fit the pattern of their variants. In contrast to this approach, J. W. Burgan propounded a method later identified as The Majority Text approach. This focuses on the Byzantine textual tradition, and assumes that its numerical preponderance is prima facie evidence of a superior text. With the lapse of time, and due to the results of the many studies made of newly discovered papyri, there is growing uncertainty as to the value of the traditional groupings of manuscripts. Both current research and contemporary methods of criticism may indicate that F. J. A. Hort\u27s description of the Byzantine text (Majority text), as late, inferior, and recensional, needs to be reevaluated. There is a loss of methodological consensus; differing ways have emerged of estimating the many variant readings of the New Testament. This depends on whether the critic relies on the supposed history of the text, or prefers to focus on stylistic and philological issues. The need is to find a text-critical method acceptable to all. Recent debate between scholars advocating different approaches to textual criticism has addressed several key theoretical issues, whose outcome determines whether the Majority text method is a viable alternative to other approaches. This study responds to the recommendation of Kurt Aland (1987) that interested students should test the Majority text method, by considering several texts from the Gospels which arc relegated to the critical apparatus of the Greek New Testament (UBS4). This is done by employing Burgan\u27s Seven Notes of Truth , and the results are compared with Aland\u27s conclusions, as well as with the conclusions of other critics who follow similar or varying methods. Not surprisingly it was found that, of all the verses examined on the basis of the Majority text method, the textual decisions were markedly different from those made by Aland and the UBS editors. In contrast, the Majority text conclusions for half of the verses considered were in agreement with those reached by the more radical approach of G. D. Kilpatrick who was willing to evaluate some Byzantine variants as good readings. The differing approaches indicate that New Testament textual criticism is at a methodological impasse. II is hoped that a clearer understanding of the history of the text will provide an objective basis for making sound textual choices. This quest must include a more exact method of patristic studies to enable the critic to place the Text more accurately in the context of its time and location. If a consensus emerged which accepted that Hart\u27s views of the origins of the Byzantine text are no longer tenable, this may encourage scholars to study Burgon\u27s work more closely, and thereby assess the value of the Majority text method