Bayesian spatial extreme value analysis of maximum temperatures in County Dublin, Ireland

In this study, we begin a comprehensive characterisation of temperature extremes in Ireland for the period 1981-2010. We produce return levels of anomalies of daily maximum temperature extremes for an area over Ireland, for the 30-year period 1981-2010. We employ extreme value theory (EVT) to model the data using the generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) as part of a three-level Bayesian hierarchical model. We use predictive processes in order to solve the computationally difficult problem of modelling data over a very dense spatial field. To our knowledge, this is the first study to combine predictive processes and EVT in this manner. The model is fit using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Posterior parameter estimates and return level surfaces are produced, in addition to specific site analysis at synoptic stations, including Casement Aerodrome and Dublin Airport. Observational data from the period 2011-2018 is included in this site analysis to determine if there is evidence of a change in the observed extremes. An increase in the frequency of extreme anomalies, but not the severity, is observed for this period. We found that the frequency of observed extreme anomalies from 2011-2018 at the Casement Aerodrome and Phoenix Park synoptic stations exceed the upper bounds of the credible intervals from the model by 20% and 7% respectively

Understanding and enhancing future infrastructure resiliency: a socio-ecological approach

The resilience of any system, human or natural, centres on its capacity to adapt its structure, but not necessarily its function, to a new configuration in response to long-term socio-ecological change. In the long term, therefore, enhancing resilience involves more than simply improving a system's ability to resist an immediate threat or to recover to a stable past state. However, despite the prevalence of adaptive notions of resilience in academic discourse, it is apparent that infrastructure planners and policies largely continue to struggle to comprehend longer-term system adaptation in their understanding of resilience. Instead, a short-term, stable system (STSS) perspective on resilience is prevalent. This paper seeks to identify and problematise this perspective, presenting research based on the development of a heuristic 'scenario-episode' tool to address, and challenge, it in the context of United Kingdom infrastructure resilience. The aim is to help resilience practitioners to understand better the capacities of future infrastructure systems to respond to natural, malicious threats

Perils of paradigm: Complexity, policy design, and the Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program

The Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program (EDSP), mandated by the United States Congress in the Food Quality Protection Act of 1996, attempts to protect public health from adverse endocrine effects of synthetic chemical compounds by establishing a new testing regime. But the complexities and uncertainties of endocrine disruption and its broader regulatory and social context all but ensure the failure of this policy. This article addresses the issues facing EDSP comprehensively and in detail, in order to move beyond the current regulatory paradigm and foster discourse on a positive role for scientists in support of EDSP's end goal: to protect public health

Integrative policy development for healthier people and ecosystems : a European case analysis

There is growing evidence of the inter‐relationships between ecosystems and public health. This creates opportunities for the development of cross‐sectoral policies and interventions that provide dual benefits to public health and to the natural environment. These benefits are increasingly articulated in strategy documents at national and regional level, yet implementation of integrative policies on the ground remains limited and fragmented. Here, we use a workshop approach to identify some features of this evidence–implementation gap based on policy and practice within a number of western European countries. The driving forces behind some recent moves towards more integrative policy development and implementation show important differences between countries, reflecting the non‐linear and complex nature of the policy‐making process. We use these case studies to illustrate some of the key barriers to greater integrative policy development identified in the policy analysis literature. Specific barriers we identify include: institutional barriers; differing time perspectives in public health and ecosystem management; contrasting historical development of public health and natural environment disciplinary policy agendas; an incomplete evidence base relating investment in the natural environment to benefits for public health; a lack of appropriate outcome measures including benefit–cost trade‐offs; and finally a lack of integrative policy frameworks across the health and natural environment sectors. We also identify opportunities for greater policy integration and examples of good practice from different countries. However, we note there is no single mechanism that will deliver integrative policy for healthier people and ecosystems in all countries and situations. National governments, national public agencies, local governments, research institutions, and professional bodies all share a responsibility to identify and seize opportunities for influencing policy change, whether incremental or abrupt, to ensure that ecosystems and the health of society are managed so that the interests of future generations, as well as present generations, can be protected

Carbon sequestration potential of the South Wales Coalfield

This paper presents a preliminary evaluation of the carbon dioxide (CO2) storage capacity of the unmined coal resources in the South Wales Coalfield, UK. Although a significant amount of the remaining coal may be mineable through traditional techniques, the prospects for opening new mines appear poor. Also, many of the South Wales coal seams are lying unused since they are too deep to be mined economically using conventional methods. There is instead a growing worldwide interest in the potential for releasing the energy value of such coal reserves through alternative technologies – for example through carbon dioxide sequestration with enhanced coal bed methane recovery. In this study, geographical information systems and three-dimensional interpolation are used to obtain the total unmined coal resource below 500 m deep, where the candidate seams for carbon dioxide sequestration are found. The ‘proved’, ‘probable’ and ‘possible’ carbon dioxide storage capacities of the South Wales Coalfield are then obtained using an established methodology. Input parameters are based on statistical distributions, considering a combination of laboratory coal characterisation results and literature review. The results are a proved capacity of 70·1 Mt carbon dioxide, a probable capacity of 104·9 Mt carbon dioxide and a possible capacity of 152·0 Mt carbon dioxide

Blue Ribbon Advisory Council on Climate Change, Report to Governor Jon M. Huntsman, Jr.

The final report from an advisory panel of 15 scientists and industry experts finding that humans are responsible for climate warming and that Utah is responsible for more greenhouse gas emissions per capita than the rest of the nation. It makes about 70 recommendations for fighting global warming including: developing significant amounts of renewable energy with incentives and tax credits, encouraging the capture and disposal of carbon dioxide, improving efficiency at power plants, implementing an aggressive mass-transit strategy, and preserving open space and agricultural land and protecting forests. The report, however, does not include specific policy recommendations or rules to implement action

The imperative of climate action to protect health in Europe

The pace and extent of recent environmental change, in particular climate change, poses serious challenges to global health gains made over recent decades. In previous work, the European Academies’ Science Advisory Council (EASAC) has covered several significant challenges relevant to climate change across Europe, for example in assessing the potential of negative emissions technologies in meeting emission targets, and monitoring trends in extreme weather events. In the present report, EASAC focuses on climate change and health. Although the European Union (EU) is very actively engaged in collective efforts to reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions and to identify how best to adapt, the impacts of climate on health have been relatively neglected in EU policy. This must change. Our concern is motivated by the risks to health in the near future. EASAC’s main messages are the following. • Climate change is happening on a global scale and is attributable to human activity. • Climate change is adversely affecting human health and health risks will increase over time. • Rapid and decisive action, to cut GHG emissions sufficiently to keep temperature increase below 2°C above pre-industrial level, could greatly reduce risks to health. • There are major near term health benefits arising from decarbonising the economy as a result of reduced air pollution and other co-benefits of climate change mitigation. • Climate change can have effects on health within the boundaries of the EU and also through its effects on the health of populations outside these boundaries. • Solutions are within reach and much can be done by acting on present knowledge, but this requires political will. • The scientific community has important roles in generating new knowledge and countering misinformation on the health effects of climate change, on factors increasing vulnerability, and on the effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation strategies, in close collaboration with decision makers. While recognising the uncertainties in attribution and extrapolation of data, the academies, independent and free of vested interests, are well placed to make an objective and transparent evaluation of the evidence base. The systems are complex but we emphasise that the policy actions required will bring benefits to health now and for future generations whatever the extent of the contribution made by climate change in the mix of risk factors. The focus in the present report is on the EU but climate change effects in other regions have tangible consequences for Europe, and the EU has roles and responsibilities that can help address problems in the rest of the world

Climate change and Utah: the scientific consensus: executive summary

As directed by Governor Jon Huntsman's Blue Ribbon Advisory Council on Climate Change (BRAC), this report summarizes present scientific understanding of climate change and its potential impacts on Utah and the western United States. Prepared by scientists from the University of Utah, Utah State University, Brigham Young University, and the United States Department of Agriculture, the report emphasizes the consensus view of the national and international scientific community, with discussion of confidence and uncertainty as defined by the BRAC