Are macroeconomic density forecasts informative?

We consider whether survey density forecasts (such as the inflation and output growth histograms of the US Survey of Professional Forecasters) are superior to unconditional density forecasts. The unconditional forecasts assume that the average level of uncertainty experienced in the past will prevail in the future, whereas the SPF projections ought to be adapted to current conditions and the outlook at each forecast origin. The SPF forecasts might be expected to outperform the unconditional densities at the shortest horizons, but this does not transpire to be the case for the aggregate forecasts of either variable, or for the majority of the individual respondents for forecasting inflation

Assessing macro uncertainty in real-time when data are subject to revision

Model-based estimates of future uncertainty are generally based on the in-sample fit of the model, as when Box-Jenkins prediction intervals are calculated. However, this approach will generate biased uncertainty estimates in real time when there are data revisions. A simple remedy is suggested, and used to generate more accurate prediction intervals for 25 macroeconomic variables, in line with the theory. A simulation study based on an empirically-estimated model of data revisions for US output growth is used to investigate small-sample properties

NASA Ground and Launch Systems Processing Technology Area Roadmap

In 2010, NASA developed a set of 14 draft roadmaps to guide the development of space technologies under the leadership of the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist. Each of these roadmaps focused on a particular technology area. The roadmaps are intended to foster the development of advanced technologies and concepts that address NASA’s needs and contribute to other aerospace and national needs. NASA contracted with the National Research Council (NRC) to perform an independent critique of the draft roadmaps. NASA assessed the NRC’s prioritizations and recommendations and developed the Strategic Space Technology Investment Plan (SSTIP) to outline the future investment strategy. The Ground and Launch Systems Processing (GLSP) Technology Area Roadmap was developed to identify ground, launch and mission technologies that would dramatically transform future space operations, with significant improvement in life-cycle costs and the quality of life on earth, increasing reliability and mission availability, and enhancing methods to assess safety and mission risk posture. Since operations costs can constitute roughly 40% of the total mission costs, by realizing savings in this technology area, NASA could redirect significant investments toward supporting a broader customer base with robust exploration missions

Incidence and All-Cause Mortality Rates in Neonates Infected With Carbapenem Resistant Organisms

INTRODUCTION: Multidrug-resistant, Gram-negative infections, particularly due to carbapenem resistant organisms (CRO), have increased globally. Few studies have reported on the burden of CRO in neonates from low-middle income countries (LMIC). This study aimed to determine the incidence and mortality rates of culture-confirmed Gram-negative infections, with a special focus on CRO in a neonatal unit from a LMIC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Positive bacterial cultures from sterile sites of infants admitted in the neonatal unit from the 1st January 2018 to 31st December 2019, were reviewed retrospectively. Type of organism, susceptibility and outcomes were recorded. Data on Gram-negative isolates, including the CRO, were extracted. Rates and outcomes were analysed. RESULTS: There were 2219 neonates with organisms isolated from sterile sites (blood and cerebrospinal fluid), accounting for 30% of all admissions, giving a neonatal sepsis incidence of 17.9/1000 patient-days. There was a total of 1746 positive isolates (excluding coagulase negative Staphyloccocus). Of these, 1706 (98%) were isolated from blood, and 40 (2%) from cerebrospinal fluid. Overall, 1188 (68%) were Gram-negative, 371 (21%) Gram-positive and 187 (10.7%) fungal isolates. The common Gram-negatives were Acinetobacter baumannii (526/1188;44%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (469/1188;40%). Carbapenem resistance was observed in 359 (68%) of the Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) and in 103 (18%) of the Enterobacterales (CRE) isolates, with 98% of CRE being Klebsiella pneumoniae (CR-Klebs). Twenty-four (41%) of Pseudomonas species were carbapenem resistant. Overall, carbapenem resistance was seen in 42% of all Gram-negative organisms. The rate of CRAB and CRE were 2.9 and 0.8/1000 patient-days respectively. The overall, all-cause in-hospital mortality rate in infants with Gram-negative isolates was 22%, with higher mortality rate in those infected with CRO compared to non-CRO (34% vs 13%; OR 3.44; 95% CI 2.58–4.60; p < 0.001). The mortality rate in infants with CRE was higher than those with CRAB (48% vs 33%; OR 1.85; 95% CI 1.18–2.89; p = 0.007). CONCLUSION: We observed a high incidence of positive cultures from sterile sites. The common organisms isolated were Gram-negatives, and among these carbapenem resistance was high and was associated with high mortality. Mortality was higher in infants with CRE compared to those with CRAB

Comprehensive in vitro Proarrhythmia Assay (CiPA): Pending issues for successful validation and implementation

International audienceIntroduction: The Comprehensive in vitro Proarrhythmia Assay (CiPA) is a nonclinical Safety Pharmacology paradigm for discovering electrophysiological mechanisms that are likely to confer proarrhythmic liability to drug candidates intended for human use.Topics covered: Key talks delivered at the ‘CiPA on my mind’ session, held during the 2015 Annual Meeting of the Safety Pharmacology Society (SPS), are summarized. Issues and potential solutions relating to crucial constituents [e.g., biological materials (ion channels and pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes), study platforms, drug solutions, and data analysis] of CiPA core assays are critically examined.Discussion: In order to advance the CiPA paradigm from the current testing and validation stages to a research and regulatory drug development strategy, systematic guidance by CiPA stakeholders is necessary to expedite solutions to pending and newly arising issues. Once a study protocol is proved to yield robust and reproducible results within and across laboratories, it can be implemented as qualified regulatory procedure

Prospectus, October 28, 1974

NO TUITION HIKE, CANTEEN DISCUSSED AT BOARD MEETING; New Legislation On Students\u27 Rights and Privacy; Pre-registration Continues; Prospectus Gets Feedback On It\u27s Campus Coverage; giving up the franchise; make us a lab paper; The Short Circuit; The Kaleidoscope; Conscious Matter; A Column By And For Women; The Hocus Pocus Focus; Who Killed President Kennedy; P/C Debators Defeat U of I, Do Well At Bradley; Preparedness Program Gives Students A Chance; Child Rearing Course Here Winter Quarter; Spanish Visitors Entertain, Have Slide Show Here; Americaa\u27s \u27Holiday\u27 Really A Bad Time; Gimme That OId Time Religion; McGuinn Yawns Through Show At Ruby Gulch; Two-legged Amphibians Invade Parkland; Classified Ads; Fast Freddy\u27s Football Forecast; The History Of The Controversial Film - Salt Of The Earth ; Ski Club; S.W.A.M.P.https://spark.parkland.edu/prospectus_1974/1005/thumbnail.jp

Prospectus, September 16, 1974

STUGO ELECTIONS SEPT. 25, 26; Student Senate Positions To Be Filled; Meet The New Prospectus Staff; 29 Added To Parkland Staff; BSA Sponsors Black Queen Contest; Lit. Page To Take Place of \u27Quill\u27; The $150,000 Gift; Letters To the Editor; The Short Circuit; Crime Pays . . . Well; The Kaleidoscope; This Is Your Newspaper; Opinion; Essay: Eulogy for Simple Justice; In The Dark With Craig Hoff; Parkland Debate Is Now Forming; International Meditation Society; Art Association; Stevie Wonder\u27s Latest \u27Beautiful, Creative\u27; Fewer And Fewer Fabulous Fashions; Right To Life To Reorganize; Really Raunchy Record Review; Heartsfield Rocks Gulch; Alpha Phi Omega; Health Insurance; Newman Club; Activities Budget Figures Released; Young Republicans To Reconvene; Republicans Plan Candidate Debate; Postage Machine; Classified Ads; Security Guard Enjoys His Job; A Column By And For Women: Continuing Education For Women; Rape Hotline System Available To Victims; Road Rally; Christian Fellowship; Jock Talk; PC Faculty Routs Maynards. Grabs Seecond; Fast Freddy\u27s Football Forecast: Rules Of The Game; Brock Expresses Relief After Breaking Record; Baseball Tryouts; Golfer At Bradley; Ski Club; Cross Country; Golf Schedule; Parkland Basketball Meeting; Callboard; Newman Club Welcomes Students; Bake Sale; TB Skin Tests; ID Cards; Bridge Clubhttps://spark.parkland.edu/prospectus_1974/1010/thumbnail.jp

Prospectus, October 14, 1974

PISCIOTTE, WEAVER, OTHERS DEBATE TODAY; Business Division Offers Two New Programs; Sangamon St. Rep On Campus; Will The Real Bobbie Reid....?; Newman Club Sponsors Mass; Blood Drive; get day-care together; bookstore follies; The Short Circuit; The Kaleidoscope; Conscious Matter; essay: The Illusion of money; Letters; In Retrospect...; Strawberry Fields Supermarket Alternative; Who Killed J.F.K.?; P.C. Science Classes Visit Rockies In Summer; PC\u27s Kater Is FM Disc Jockey; P.C. Offers Transcendental Meditation Classes; Local Jazz Bands Offer Entertainment; Lit One: A Bag Of Jamaican Weed, Time, Whispe....., Limbo, Child, The wind is shifting..., A Short Story; \u27Piano Man\u27 Not Much Else; The Gifts Of Jackson Browne; Your Health, books: Jaws; In The Dark; A Column By And For Women: Abortion Facts, The Female Focus; Tau Epsilon; Classified Ads; Spoon Returns To Champaign; Fast Freddy\u27s Football Forecast; Horseshoe Results?; Bart Wills Is Fast Freddy Winner; P.C. Wrestling Team To Meet; Callboard; Parkland Events; Library To Be Closed; Does P.C. Architecture Promote Learning?https://spark.parkland.edu/prospectus_1974/1006/thumbnail.jp

Crop Updates 2002 - Lupins

This session covers twenty four papers from different authors: LUPIN INDUSTRY ISSUES AND RESEARCH DIRECTIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Amelia McLarty LUPIN CONVENOR DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE VARIETIES 1. Evaluation of lupinus mutabilis in Western Australia, Bob French, Laurie Wahlsten and Martin Harries, Department of Agriculture 2. Adaption of restricted-branching lupins in short-growing season environments, Bob French, Laurie Wahlsten, Department of Agriculture ESTABLISHMENT 3. Moisture delving for better lupin establishment, Dr Paul Blackwell, Department of Agriculture 4. Lupins, tramlines, 600mm rows, rolling and shield spraying … a good result in a dry season! Paul Blackwell and Mike Collins, Department of Agriculture 5. Lupin wider row spacing data and observations, Bill CrabtreeA, Geoff FosberyB, Angie RoeB, Mike CollinsCand Matt BeckettA,AWANTFA, BFarm Focus Consultants and CDepartment of Agriculture NUTRITION 6. Lupin genotypes respond differently to potash, Bob French and Laurie Wahlsten, Department of Agriculture 7. Consequence of radish competition on lupin nutrients in a wheat-lupin rotation, Abul Hashem and Nerys Wilkins, Department of Agriculture 8. Consequence of ryegrass competition on lupin nutrients in a wheat-lupin rotation, Abul Hashem and Nerys Wilkins, Department of Agriculture PESTS AND DISEASES 9. Fungicide sprays for control of lupin anthracnose, Geoff Thomas and Ken Adcock, Department of Agriculture 10. Estimated yield losses in lupin varieties from sowing anthracnose infected seed, Geoff Thomas, Department of Agriculture 11. Effect of variety and environment (northern and southern wheatbelt) on yield losses in lupins due to anthracnose, Geoff Thomas and Ken Adcock, Department of Agriculture, 12. A decision support system for the control of aphids and CMV in lupin crops, Debbie Thackray, Jenny Hawkes and Roger Jones, Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture and Department of Agriculture 13. Integrated management strategies for virus diseases of lupin, Roger Jones, Crop Improvement Institute, Department of Agriculture, and Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture, University of WA 14. Quantifying yield losses caused by the non-necrotic strain of BYMV in lupin, Roger Jones and Brenda Coutts, Department of Agriculture, and Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture 15. Screening for pod resistance to phomopsis in various lupin species, Manisha Shankar1, Mark Sweetingham1&2and Bevan Buirchell2 1Co-operative Research Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture, The University of Western Australia, 2 Department of Agriculture 16. Lupin disease diagnostics, Nichole Burges and Dominie Wright, Department of Agriculture QUALITY AND MARKET DEVELOPMENT 17. To GM or not to GM pulses – that is the question, Dr Susan J. Barker, The University of Western Australia 18. Towards a management package for grain protein in lupins, Bob French, Senior Research Officer, Department of Agriculture 19. Yield and seed protein response to foliar application of N among lupin genotypes, Jairo A Palta1&2, Bob French2&3and Neil C Turner1&2 , 1 CSIRO Plant Industry, Floreat Park, 2 CLIMA, University of Western Australia,3Department of Agriculture 20. Foliar nitrogen application to improve protein content in narrow-leafed lupin, Martin Harries, Bob French, Laurie Wahlsten, Department of Agriculture, Matt Evans, CSBP 21. Effect of time of swathing of lupins on grain protein content, Martin Harries, Department of Agriculture 22. Putting a value on protein premiums for the animal feed industries: Aquaculture, Brett Glencross and John Curnow, Department of Fisheries, Wayne Hawkins, Department of Agriculture 23. Progress in selecting for reduced seed hull and pod wall in lupin, Jon C. Clements, CLIMA, University of Western Australia 24. Contact details for principal author