Observation of Single Transits in Supercooled Monatomic Liquids

A transit is the motion of a system from one many-particle potential energy valley to another. We report the observation of transits in molecular dynamics (MD) calculations of supercooled liquid argon and sodium. Each transit is a correlated simultaneous shift in the equilibrium positions of a small local group of particles, as revealed in the fluctuating graphs of the particle coordinates versus time. This is the first reported direct observation of transit motion in a monatomic liquid in thermal equilibrium. We found transits involving 2 to 11 particles, having mean shift in equilibrium position on the order of 0.4 R_1 in argon and 0.25 R_1 in sodium, where R_1 is the nearest neighbor distance. The time it takes for a transit to occur is approximately one mean vibrational period, confirming that transits are fast.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figure

Quantum sticking, scattering and transmission of 4He atoms from superfluid 4He surfaces

We develop a microscopic theory of the scattering, transmission, and sticking of 4He atoms impinging on a superfluid 4He slab at near normal incidence, and inelastic neutron scattering from the slab. The theory includes coupling between different modes and allows for inelastic processes. We find a number of essential aspects that must be observed in a physically meaningful and reliable theory of atom transmission and scattering; all are connected with multiparticle scattering, particularly the possibility of energy loss. These processes are (a) the coupling to low-lying (surface) excitations (ripplons/third sound) which is manifested in a finite imaginary part of the self energy, and (b) the reduction of the strength of the excitation in the maxon/roton region

Effect of time series length and resolution on abundance‐ and trait‐based early warning signals of population declines

Seasonal environmental conditions shape the behavior and life history of virtually all organisms. Climate change is modifying these seasonal environmental conditions, which threatens to disrupt population dynamics. It is conceivable that climatic changes may be beneficial in one season but result in detrimental conditions in another because life-history strategies vary between these time periods. We analyzed the temporal trends in seasonal survival of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) and explored the environmental drivers using a 40-y dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA). Trends in survival revealed divergent seasonal patterns, which were similar across age-classes. Marmot survival declined during winter but generally increased during summer. Interestingly, different environmental factors appeared to drive survival trends across age-classes. Winter survival was largely driven by conditions during the preceding summer and the effect of continued climate change was likely to be mainly negative, whereas the likely outcome of continued climate change on summer survival was generally positive. This study illustrates that seasonal demographic responses need disentangling to accurately forecast the impacts of climate change on animal population dynamics

Recent Decisions

Comments on recent decisions by Carl F. Eiberger, Donald W. Bebenek, Walter C. Clements, Robert J. Hepler, Norman H. McNeil, John P. Coyne, Mark S. Tolle, Robert D. LeMense, Michael C. Dionise, and John W. Houck

Submillimeter Observations of the Ultraluminous BAL Quasar APM 08279+5255

With an inferred bolometric luminosity of 5\times10^{15}{\rm \lsun}, the recently identified z=3.87, broad absorption line quasar APM 08279+5255 is apparently the most luminous object currently known. As half of its prodigious emission occurs in the infrared, APM 08279+5255 also represents the most extreme example of an Ultraluminous Infrared Galaxy. Here, we present new submillimeter observations of this phenomenal object; while indicating that a vast quantity of dust is present, these data prove to be incompatible with current models of emission mechanisms and reprocessing in ultraluminous systems. The influence of gravitational lensing upon these models is considered and we find that while the emission from the central continuum emitting region may be significantly enhanced, lensing induced magnification cannot easily reconcile the models with observations. We conclude that further modeling, including the effects of any differential magnification is required to explain the observed emission from APM 08279+5255.Comment: 12 Pages with Two figures. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letter

Machine learning methods trained on simple models can predict critical transitions in complex natural systems

Forecasting sudden changes in complex systems is a critical but challenging task, with previously developed methods varying widely in their reliability. Here we develop a novel detection method, using simple theoretical models to train a deep neural network to detect critical transitions—the Early Warning Signal Network (EWSNet). We then demonstrate that this network, trained on simulated data, can reliably predict observed real-world transitions in systems ranging from rapid climatic change to the collapse of ecological populations. Importantly, our model appears to capture latent properties in time series missed by previous warning signals approaches, allowing us to not only detect if a transition is approaching, but critically whether the collapse will be catastrophic or non-catastrophic. These novel properties mean EWSNet has the potential to serve as an indicator of transitions across a broad spectrum of complex systems, without requiring information on the structure of the system being monitored. Our work highlights the practicality of deep learning for addressing further questions pertaining to ecosystem collapse and has much broader management implications