Quantitative Global Model for Armed Conflict Risk Assessment

Tools for automated quantitative analysis of information are more and more required in the framework of early warning systems, to support political decision makers in making timely evaluations of the risk of severe crises. This report describes a scientifically sound approach to build a statistical model to assess quantitatively the risk of intra-state armed conflict in any country in the world. Our models are based on structural indicators, and they therefore make a static assessment of country level performance, which can then be ranked for conflict risk. The temporal trend provide additional information on the evolution of the situation. Attention is paid to operationalise this approach in early situation assessment.JRC.G.2-Support to external securit

Gender Dimensions in Geo-spatial Security Research: Disciplinary Confrontations

Several EU policy papers have called for an improved dialogue between security policymakers, social science researchers and science and technology researchers working on security (Pullinger, 2006). To increase the understanding of gender dimensions in security, the traditional technological response can be complemented by socio-political knowledge. Gender inequities in the socio-economic and political spheres can be analysed by such a comprehensive socio-political and technological approach. In the field of geo-spatial security research, Hyndman (2004) proposes to bridge a gap between gender studies and geographical analysis of security. In this paper, a workshop is used to illustrate both the potential and the difficulties of such a collaborative and interdisciplinary approach. The workshop aim was to define a geographical and spatial analysis of gender dimensions in security. This paper discusses the gender dimensions in geo-spatial analysis, as well as the pros and cons of an interdisciplinary approach. Integrating the overall complexity of gender dimensions as a spatial component in security monitoring is a promising challenge, but is still to be achieved by the technological community. This paper explains the epistemological and methodological issues and opportunities of this dialogue

Facilitating multi-stakeholder dialogue to manage natural resource competition: A synthesis of lessons from Uganda, Zambia, and Cambodia

Rural development or natural resource management program planning and implementation frequently confront challenges of environmental resource competition and conflict, particularly where common pool resources are a major component of rural livelihoods. This paper reports on an approach to multistakeholder dialogue, supported by participatory action research, to address the roots of such competition and conflict. The approach, called “Collaborating for Resilience,” includes principles and guidance on building a shared understanding of risks and opportunities, weighing alternative actions, developing action plans, and evaluating and learning from the outcomes. Working in partnership with government, community and civil society actors, the approach was developed and refined through applications in large lake systems in Uganda, Zambia, and Cambodia. This paper presents a synthesis of lessons addressing practitioners in government, nongovernmental development organizations, and international development agencies. These lessons include guidance on the context of multistakeholder dialogue processes, addressing gender equity, building stakeholder relationships and accountability across scales, and encouraging learning and innovation over time

Analyzig spatial drivers in quantitative conflict studies: the potential and challenges of geographic information systems

The objective of this literature review is to understand where GIS can be useful to address security issues and how it has been used up till now. While the geographic drivers of territorial conflicts have been extensively described by a number of political studies, the quantitative analysis of these drivers is quite new. This study traces an evolution from conceptual research to quantitative development. It then discusses the advantages and challenges of applying new geographic techniques to analyze spatial drivers of conflict. We identify (i) the main spatial components in conflict and security, (ii) the existing type of information/data and (iii) the quantitative methods used. We describe the spatial component of security by looking at: (i) the main socio-political concepts linked to territory, (ii) the kind of geographic concepts linked to territory (iii) measures used to describe such geographic concepts and (iv) the issues raised in any attempt to integrate geographic concepts into a GIS. We conclude that GIS tools can be useful in the analysis of civil disputes, particularly where sub-national level data exists. This paper shows that spatial processing tools in GIS allow one to represent some spatial components and to address new issues such as the fuzzy complexity of border permeability.JRC.G.2-Global security and crisis managemen

Armed Conflict Risk Assessment - Towards an Operational Approach

In the field of conflict studies, automated data processing for relevant information extraction is essential to process the huge amounts of data being collected on countries and political groups. Automated quantitative information analysis can support political decision makers to make timely evaluations of the risk of severe crises. Such tools are more and more required in the framework of early warning systems. This paper aims to provide a scientifically sound approach to build a statistical model to assess quantitatively the risk of intra-state armed conflict on the global level. Particular attention is paid to the operationalization of the approach in early situation assessment.JRC.G.2-Support to external securit

Local governance in disaster risk reduction in Cameroon

At the 2005 World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction held in Hyogo, Japan, 168 countries including Cameroon adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action, committing to take action to reduce human and socio-economic disaster losses. Geotechnology, Environmental Assessment and Disaster Risk Reduction was commissioned by the Global Network of Civil Society Organisations for Disaster Risk Reduction as the coordinating organisation in Cameroon to evaluate progress in implementation of the framework from the civil society perspective, particularly the role of local governance in disaster risk reduction (DRR). Seven regions of the country were identified for evaluation, where people have suffered losses from disasters during the last three decades. Three approaches were used: administration of questionnaires; consultations with local communities; and four case studies. It was found that there was significant scope for improvement on individual local governance indicators, and that effective progress depends on:1. level of achievement in the decentralisation process currently under way.2. adoption of a participatory approach to DRR.3. clear distribution of roles in the DRR process.4. adequate allocation of necessary financial and human resources.5. enhancement of capacity of local communities to prepare for and respond to all types of disasters.Creation of an independent body to carry out fundamental research, forecast new and emerging hazards and manage all disasters in the country will contribute greatly to moving things forward.https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v4i1.5