Estimation of time delay by coherence analysis

Using coherence analysis (which is an extensively used method to study the correlations in frequency domain, between two simultaneously measured signals) we estimate the time delay between two signals. This method is suitable for time delay estimation of narrow band coherence signals for which the conventional methods cannot be reliably applied. We show by analysing coupled R\"ossler attractors with a known delay, that the method yields satisfactory results. Then, we apply this method to human pathologic tremor. The delay between simultaneously measured traces of Electroencephalogram (EEG) and Electromyogram (EMG) data of subjects with essential hand tremor is calculated. We find that there is a delay of 11-27 milli-seconds ($ms$) between the tremor correlated parts (cortex) of the brain (EEG) and the trembling hand (EMG) which is in agreement with the experimentally observed delay value of 15 $ms$ for the cortico-muscular conduction time. By surrogate analysis we calculate error-bars of the estimated delay.Comment: 21 pages, 8 figures, elstart.cls file included. Accepted for publication in Physica

Astrometric Positions and Proper Motions of 19 Radio Stars

We have used the Very Large Array, linked with the Pie Town Very Long Baseline Array antenna, to determine astrometric positions of 19 radio stars in the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF). The positions of these stars were directly linked to the positions of distant quasars through phase referencing observations. The positions of the ICRF quasars are known to 0.25 mas, thus providing an absolute reference at the angular resolution of our radio observations. Average values for the errors in our derived positions for all sources were 13 mas and 16 mas in R.A. and declination respectively, with accuracies approaching 1-2 mas for some of the stars observed. Differences between the ICRF positions of the 38 quasars, and those measured from our observations showed no systematic offsets, with mean values of -0.3 mas in R.A. and -1.0 mas in declination. Standard deviations of the quasar position differences of 17 mas and 11 mas in R.A. and declination respectively, are consistent with the mean position errors determined for the stars. Our measured positions were combined with previous Very Large Array measurements taken from 1978-1995 to determine the proper motions of 15 of the stars in our list. With mean errors of approximately 1.6 mas/yr, the accuracies of our proper motions approach those derived from Hipparcos, and for a few of the stars in our program, are better than the Hipparcos values. Comparing the positions of our radio stars with the Hipparcos catalog, we find that at the epoch of our observations, the two frames are aligned to within formal errors of approximately 3 mas. This result confirms that the Hipparcos frame is inertial at the expected level.Comment: 20 pages, 9 figures Accepted by the Astronomical Journal, 2003 March 1

Contribution of anthropogenic land cover change emissions to preindustrial atmospheric CO2

Based on a recent reconstruction of anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC), we derive the associated CO2 emissions since 800 AD by two independent methods: a bookkeeping approach and a process model. The results are compared with the pre-industrial development of atmospheric CO2 known from antarctic ice cores. Our results show that pre-industrial CO2 emissions from ALCC have been relevant for the pre-industrial carbon cycle, although before 1750 AD their trace in atmospheric CO2 is obscured by other processes of similar magnitude. After 1750 AD, the situation is different: the steep increase in atmospheric CO2 until 1850 AD-this is before fossil fuel emissions rose to significant values-is to a substantial part explained by growing emissions from ALCC. © 2010 The Authors Tellus B © 2010 International Meteorological Institute in Stockholm

Past land use decisions have increased mitigation potential of reforestation

Anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) influences global mean temperatures via counteracting effects: CO2 emissions contribute to global warming, while biogeophysical effects, in particular the increase in surface albedo, often impose a cooling influence. Previous studies of idealized, large-scale deforestation found that albedo cooling dominates over CO 2 warming in boreal regions, indicating that boreal reforestation is not an effective mitigation tool. Here we show the importance of past land use decisions in influencing the mitigation potential of reforestation on these lands. In our simulations, CO2 warming dominates over albedo cooling because past land use decisions resulted in the use of the most productive land with larger carbon stocks and less snow than on average. As a result past land use decisions extended CO2 dominance to most agriculturally important regions in the world, suggesting that in most places reversion of past land cover change could contribute to climate change mitigation. While the relative magnitude of CO2 and albedo effects remains uncertain, the historical land use pattern is found to be biased towards stronger CO2 and weaker albedo effects as compared to idealized large-scale deforestation. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union

Biogeophysical versus biogeochemical climate response to historical anthropogenic land cover change

Anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) is one of the few climate forcings with still unknown sign of their climate response. Major uncertainty results from the often counteracting temperature responses to biogeochemical as compared to biogeophysical effects. Here, we separate the strength of these two effects for ALCC during the last millennium. We add unprecedented detail by (i) using a coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model (GCM), and (ii) applying a high-detail reconstruction of historical ALCC. We find that biogeophysical effects have a slight cooling influence on global mean temperature (-0.03 K in the 20th century), while biogeochemical effects lead to strong warming (0.16-0.18 K). During the industrial era, both effects cause significant changes in certain regions; only few regions, however, experience biogeophysical cooling strong enough to dominate the overall temperature response. This study therefore suggests that the climate response to historical ALCC, both globally and in most regions, is dominated by the rise in CO2 caused by ALCC emissions

OH (1720 MHz) Masers: A Multiwavelength Study of the Interaction between the W51C Supernova Remnant and the W51B Star Forming Region

We present a comprehensive view of the W51B HII region complex and the W51C supernova remnant (SNR) using new radio observations from the VLA, VLBA, MERLIN, JCMT, and CSO along with archival data from Spitzer, ROSAT, ASCA, and Chandra. Our VLA data include the first 400 cm (74 MHz) continuum image of W51 at high resolution (88 arcsec). The 400 cm image shows non-thermal emission surrounding the G49.2-0.3 HII region, and a compact source of non-thermal emission (W51B_NT) coincident with the previously-identified OH (1720 MHz) maser spots, non-thermal 21 and 90 cm emission, and a hard X-ray source. W51B_NT falls within the region of high likelihood for the position of TeV gamma-ray emission. Using the VLBA three OH (1720 MHz) maser spots are detected in the vicinity of W51B_NT with sizes of 60 to 300 AU and Zeeman effect magnetic field strengths of 1.5 to 2.2 mG. The multiwavelength data demonstrate that the northern end of the W51B HII region complex has been partly enveloped by the advancing W51C SNR and this interaction explains the presence of W51B_NT and the OH masers. This interaction also appears in the thermal molecular gas which partially encircles W51B_NT and exhibits narrow pre-shock (DeltaV 5 km/s) and broad post-shock (DeltaV 20 km/s) velocity components. RADEX radiative transfer modeling of these two components yield physical conditions consistent with the passage of a non-dissociative C-type shock. Confirmation of the W51B/W51C interaction provides additional evidence in favor of this region being one of the best candidates for hadronic particle acceleration known thus far.Comment: Accepted to Ap

Stochastic differential equations for evolutionary dynamics with demographic noise and mutations

We present a general framework to describe the evolutionary dynamics of an arbitrary number of types in finite populations based on stochastic differential equations (SDE). For large, but finite populations this allows to include demographic noise without requiring explicit simulations. Instead, the population size only rescales the amplitude of the noise. Moreover, this framework admits the inclusion of mutations between different types, provided that mutation rates, $\mu$, are not too small compared to the inverse population size 1/N. This ensures that all types are almost always represented in the population and that the occasional extinction of one type does not result in an extended absence of that type. For $\mu N\ll1$ this limits the use of SDE's, but in this case there are well established alternative approximations based on time scale separation. We illustrate our approach by a Rock-Scissors-Paper game with mutations, where we demonstrate excellent agreement with simulation based results for sufficiently large populations. In the absence of mutations the excellent agreement extends to small population sizes.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in Physical Review