The Tactical and Strategic Value of Commodity Futures

Historically, commodity futures have had excess returns similar to those of equities. But what should we expect in the future? The usual risk factors are unable to explain the time-series variation in excess returns. In addition, our evidence suggests that commodity futures are an inconsistent, if not tenuous, hedge against unexpected inflation. Further, the historically high average returns to a commodity futures portfolio are largely driven by the choice of weighting schemes. Indeed, an equally weighted long-only portfolio of commodity futures returns has approximately a zero excess return over the past 25 years. Our portfolio analysis suggests that the a long-only strategic allocation to commodities as a general asset class is a bet on the future term structure of commodity prices, in general, and on specific portfolio weighting schemes, in particular. In contrast, we provide evidence that there are distinct benefits to an asset allocation overlay that tactically allocates using commodity futures exposures. We examine three trading strategies that use both momentum and the term structure of futures prices. We find that the tactical strategies provide higher average returns and lower risk than a long-only commodity futures exposure.

Ursinus College Alumni Journal, August 1967

Exposure \u2767 Ursinus • Viewpoint at commencement time: Means to an end; Toward freedom; Liberal morality; Open-minded attitude; Quality vs. quantity • From the President • What makes Suzy a language dud? • The paradox of urbia: an interview • Negro voices of the city • Springtime was alumni time • Dr. Myers wins alumni award • Dr. Wessel speaks on urbia • Alumni giving climbs in 1967 • Campus clippings: Collegeville area grows; Staigers tour world; Color film; Miss congeniality; New Board members; Placement service; Schultze promoted; Humble gift; Include Ursinus in your will • Sporting scene: Tennis; Baseball; Track • Anatomy of medical school life • Class notebook • Faculty members speak at spring regional meetings • Weddings • Births • In memoriam • Physicians Club meets •https://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/alumnijournal/1089/thumbnail.jp

The Keck Baryonic Structure Survey: using foreground/background galaxy pairs to trace the structure and kinematics of circumgalactic neutral hydrogen at z ∼ 2

We present new measurements of the spatial distribution and kinematics of neutral hydrogen in the circumgalactic and intergalactic medium surrounding star-forming galaxies at z ∼ 2. Using the spectra of ≃3000 galaxies with redshifts 〈z〉 = 2.3 ± 0.4 from the Keck Baryonic Structure Survey, we assemble a sample of more than 200 000 distinct foreground-background pairs with projected angular separations of 3–500 arcsec and spectroscopic redshifts, with 〈z_(fg)〉 = 2.23 and 〈zbg〉 = 2.57 (foreground, background redshifts, respectively.) The ensemble of sightlines and foreground galaxies is used to construct a 2D map of the mean excess HI Lyα optical depth relative to the intergalactic mean as a function of projected galactocentric distance (20 ≲ D_(tran)/pkpc ≲ 4000) and line-of-sight velocity. We obtain accurate galaxy systemic redshifts, providing significant information on the line-of-sight kinematics of HI gas as a function of projected distance D_(tran). We compare the map with cosmological zoom-in simulation, finding qualitative agreement between them. A simple two-component (accretion, outflow) analytical model generally reproduces the observed line-of-sight kinematics and projected spatial distribution of HI. The best-fitting model suggests that galaxy-scale outflows with initial velocity v_(out) ≃ 600 km s⁻¹ dominate the kinematics of circumgalactic HI out to D_(tran) ≃ 50 kpc, while HI at D_(tran) ≳ 100 kpc is dominated by infall with characteristic v_(in) ≲ circular velocity. Over the impact parameter range 80 ≲ D_(tran)/pkpc ≲ 200, the HI line-of-sight velocity range reaches a minimum, with a corresponding flattening in the rest-frame Lyα equivalent width. These observations can be naturally explained as the transition between outflow-dominated and accretion-dominated flows. Beyond D_(tran) ≃ 300 pkpc (∼1 cMpc), the line-of-sight kinematics are dominated by Hubble expansion

The Keck Baryonic Structure Survey: Using foreground/background galaxy pairs to trace the structure and kinematics of circumgalactic neutral hydrogen at z∼2z \sim 2

We present new measurements of the spatial distribution and kinematics of neutral hydrogen in the circumgalactic and intergalactic medium surrounding star-forming galaxies at z ~ 2. Using the spectra of ~ 3000 galaxies with redshifts +/- 0.4 from the Keck Baryonic Structure Survey (KBSS), we assemble a sample of more than 200,000 distinct foreground-background pairs with projected angular separations of 3 - 500 arcsec and spectroscopic redshifts, with = 2.23 and = 2.57. The ensemble of sightlines and foreground galaxies is used to construct a 2D map of the mean excess Ly$\alpha$ optical depth relative to the intergalactic mean as a function of projected galactocentric distance (20 < $D_{tran}$/pkpc < 4000) and line-of-sight velocity. We provide information on the line-of-sight kinematics of H I gas as a function of projected distance $D_{tran}$. We compare the map with cosmological zoom-in simulation, finding qualitative agreement between them. A simple two-component (accretion, outflow) analytical model generally reproduces the observed line-of-sight kinematics and projected spatial distribution of H I. The best-fitting model suggests that galaxy-scale outflows with initial velocity $v_{out}$ ~ 600 km/s dominate the kinematics of circumgalactic H I out to $D_{tran}$ ~ 50 kpc, while H I at $D_{tran}$ > 100 kpc is dominated by infall with characteristic $v_{in}$ < $v_c$, where $v_c$ is the circular velocity of the host halo ($M_h$ ~ $10^{12} M_\odot$). Over the impact parameter range 80 < $D_{tran}$/pkpc < 200, the H I line-of-sight velocity range reaches a minimum, with a corresponding flattening in the rest-frame Ly$\alpha$ equivalent width. These observations can be naturally explained as the transition between outflow-dominated and accretion-dominated flows. Beyond $D_{tran}$ ~ 300 kpc, the line of sight kinematics are dominated by Hubble expansion.Comment: 27 pages, 24 figures, 3 tables, accepted by MNRAS. Additional data at http://ramekin.caltech.edu/KBSS

Repertoire of Intensive Care Unit Pneumonia Microbiota

Despite the considerable number of studies reported to date, the causative agents of pneumonia are not completely identified. We comprehensively applied modern and traditional laboratory diagnostic techniques to identify microbiota in patients who were admitted to or developed pneumonia in intensive care units (ICUs). During a three-year period, we tested the bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) of patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia, community-acquired pneumonia, non-ventilator ICU pneumonia and aspiration pneumonia, and compared the results with those from patients without pneumonia (controls). Samples were tested by amplification of 16S rDNA, 18S rDNA genes followed by cloning and sequencing and by PCR to target specific pathogens. We also included culture, amoeba co-culture, detection of antibodies to selected agents and urinary antigen tests. Based on molecular testing, we identified a wide repertoire of 160 bacterial species of which 73 have not been previously reported in pneumonia. Moreover, we found 37 putative new bacterial phylotypes with a 16S rDNA gene divergence ≥98% from known phylotypes. We also identified 24 fungal species of which 6 have not been previously reported in pneumonia and 7 viruses. Patients can present up to 16 different microorganisms in a single BAL (mean ± SD; 3.77±2.93). Some pathogens considered to be typical for ICU pneumonia such as Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Streptococcus species can be detected as commonly in controls as in pneumonia patients which strikingly highlights the existence of a core pulmonary microbiota. Differences in the microbiota of different forms of pneumonia were documented

Temporal dynamics of microbiota before and after host death

The habitats that animals, humans and plants provide for microbial communities are inevitably transient, changing drastically when these hosts die. Because microbes associated with living hosts are ensured prime access to the deceased host's organic matter, it is feasible that opportunistic, adaptable lifestyles are widespread among host-associated microbes. Here we investigate the temporal dynamics of microbiota by starving to death a host-the planktonic Crustacean Daphnia magna-and tracking the changes in its microbial community as it approaches death, dies and decomposes. Along with obligate host-associated microbes that vanished after the host's death and decomposers that appeared after the host's death, we also detected microbes with opportunistic lifestyles, seemingly capable of exploiting the host even before its death. We suggest that the period around host death plays an important role for host-microbiota ecology and for the evolution of hosts and their microbes