Evaluation of survey effects in pre-election polls

Pre-election polls can suffer from survey effects. For instance, individuals taking part in the poll may become more aware of the upcoming election so that they become more inclined to vote. Such effects cause biases in forecasted outcomes of elections. We propose a simple methodology that takes such survey effects explicitly into account when translating poll results into election outcomes. By collecting data both before and after the election, the survey effects can be estimated and used as correction factors in later polls. We illustrate our method by means of a field study with data collected before and after the2007 regional elections (for `Provincial States') in the Netherlands. Our study provides empirical evidence of significant positive survey effects with respect to voter participation, and this effect is the largest for left-wing voters. That is, surveys seem to motivate left-wing people who otherwise would not have participated in the elections. This means that both the voter turnout and the number of seats going to left-wing parties may be overestimated by pre-election polls that do not correct for survey effects.data collection;bias correction;survey effects;intention modification;pre-election polls;turnout forecast

Evaluation of survey effects in pre-election polls

Pre-election polls can suffer from survey effects. For instance, individuals taking part in the poll may become more aware of the upcoming election so that they become more inclined to vote. Such effects cause biases in forecasted outcomes of elections. We propose a simple methodology that takes such survey effects explicitly into account when translating poll results into election outcomes. By collecting data both before and after the election, the survey effects can be estimated and used as correction factors in later polls. We illustrate our method by means of a field study with data collected before and after the 2007 regional elections (for `Provincial States') in the Netherlands. Our study provides empirical evidence of significant positive survey effects with respect to voter participation, and this effect is the largest for left-wing voters. That is, surveys seem to motivate left-wing people who otherwise would not have participated in the elections. This means that both the voter turnout and the number of seats going to left-wing parties may be overestimated by pre-election polls that do not correct for survey effects

De kamer van een koopvrouw: Achttiende-eeuwse interieurschilderingen in een Rotterdams huis

In the middle of the eighteenth century, the so-called Koopmanshuis (Merchant’s House) at Rechter Rottekade 405-407 in Rotterdam underwent a substantial renovation that resulted in the present facade, staircase, and first-floor reception room with decorative paintings. The iconography of the paintings raises questions about their meaning, maker and client. In order to elucidate the artistic programme this article investigates the house, the painter, the client and the political-economic context. The research provides insight into the deeper meaning of the paintings while also increasing our knowledge of Rotterdam’s middle-class architectural and domestic culture in this period. Built largely in the period 1718-1735, the house has the typical layout of Rotterdam merchant houses, with business operations at street level and living spaces on the floors above. In 1756 the front elevation was rebuilt. The same period saw the installation of a rococo staircase and the creation of an elegant reception room, also in rococo style. It is here that the artworks – an overmantel painting and a ceiling painting – are to be found. The overmantel painting is an allegory on the virtues of Fidelity and Prudence. The ceiling painting consists of four corner tableaus depicting personifications of the four continents and a central  tableau featuring personifications of Trade and Freedom and a composite personification of Victory, Plenty, Peace and Munificence. The iconography is derived in part from the emblem books of Cesare Ripa and Hubert Poot. They are neither signed nor dated. Stylistic and iconographic similarities with two paintings by Dirk Anthony Bisschop (1708-1785) suggest that this artist was also responsible for the paintings in the Koopmanshuis. Bisschop made decorative artworks, paintings, topographical drawings, armorials and family trees, and decorated carriages and jewellery. Several of his works display the same idiosyncratic kind of iconography as found in the Koopmanshuis. Bisschop was a highly regarded painter whose clients included many prominent families. The paintings and the rococo interior were done at the behest of the Remonstrant merchant Antonetta Verkanten (1702-1774). She traded in tea, coffee, wool and furs, products sourced in part from the Dutch colonies. The new interior was a reflection of her growing affluence and social ambitions. The subject matter of the paintings refers not just to Verkanten’s commercial activities, but was also influenced by contemporary international, political and economic threats to commerce, such as the Seven Years’ War and international competition in overseas trade. Based on this, the ceiling painting can be interpreted as an allegory of intercontinental free trade,  and an appeal for peace in order that trade might flourish and generate prosperity. It also encourages the sharing of the resulting abundance. The virtues depicted in the overmantel work are crucial to successful commerce. The paintings and the interior demonstrate that it was not just the elite, but also the well-to-do middle class who commissioned elegant salons furnished in accordance with the latest fashion and decorated with allegorical figurations. The totality expressed the economic position, ambitions and ideas of the client. The painter, Bisschop, possessed the intellectual capacity to render the message in a unique iconography. Paintings like those in the Koopmanshuis, which can be difficult to interpret without knowing their background, are both interesting and relevant to the history of Dutch decorative painting.Het zogenoemde Koopmanshuis aan de Rechter Rottekade 405-407 in Rotterdam onderging in het midden van de achttiende eeuw een verbouwing, waarbij de huidige gevel, trap en ontvangstkamer met interieurschilderingen op de verdieping tot stand kwamen. De iconografie van de schilderingen roept vragen op over betekenis, maker en opdrachtgever. In dit artikel worden het huis, de schilder, de opdrachtgever en de politiek-economische context onderzocht om tot een duiding van het schilderkunstige programma te komen. Het onderzoek geeft inzicht in de diepere betekenis van de schilderstukken en vergroot daarnaast ook onze kennis van de Rotterdamse burgerlijke bouw- en wooncultuur in deze periode. Het huis kwam grotendeels tot stand in de periode 1718-1735 en heeft de kenmerkende opzet van het Rotterdamse koopmanshuistype met bedrijfsfuncties beneden en woonfuncties op de verdiepingen. In 1756 werd de voorgevel vernieuwd. In diezelfde periode werd een rococo-trap geplaatst en kreeg de eerste verdieping een representatief ontvangstvertrek in rococostijl. Hier bevinden zich de schilderingen: een schoorsteenstuk en een plafondschildering. Het schoorsteenstuk is een allegorie op de deugden Trouw en Voorzichtigheid. De plafondschildering bestaat uit vier hoekstukken met personificaties van de vier continenten en een middenstuk met personificaties van de Handel en Vrijheid en een gecombineerde personificatie van de Overwinning, Overvloed, Vrede en Milddadigheid (vrijgevigheid). De iconografie is gedeeltelijk ontleend aan de handboeken van Cesare Ripa en Hubert Poot. Een signatuur of datering ontbreekt. Op basis van stilistische en iconografische overeenkomsten met twee schilderstukken van Dirk Anthony Bisschop (1708-1785) kunnen de schilderingen in het Koopmanshuis aan hem worden toegeschreven. Bisschop vervaardigde interieurschilderstukken, schilderijen, topografische tekeningenn, wapenboeken en stambomen en beschilderde rijtuigen en sieraden. Enkele werken tonen net zo’n eigenzinnige iconografie als in het Koopmanshuis. Bisschop was een gewaardeerd schilder met vooraanstaande families als opdrachtgevers. De schilderingen en het rococo-interieur zijn aangebracht in opdracht van de remonstrantse Antonetta Verkanten (1702-1774). Zij dreef een handel in thee, koffie, wol en bont, producten die onder meer uit de koloniën werden betrokken. Het nieuwe interieur weerspiegelde haar toegenomen welvaart en sociale ambitie. De thematiek van de schilderingen refereert niet alleen aan de zakelijke activiteiten van Verkanten, maar is ook beïnvloed door de toenmalige internationale, politieke en economische bedreigingen voor de handel, zoals de Zevenjarige Oorlog en internationale concurrentie in de overzeese handel. Op basis hiervan is het plafondstuk te interpreteren als een allegorie op de intercontinentale handelsvrijheid en een oproep tot vrede, opdat de handel kan gedijen en zorgen voor welvaart. Ook spoort het aan de verworven overvloed te delen. De deugden op het schoorsteenstuk zijn noodzakelijke eigenschappen voor een succesvolle handel. De schilderingen en het interieur tonen dat niet alleen de elite, maar ook de gegoede burgerklasse representatieve vertrekken liet bouwen volgens de laatste mode en deze liet decoreren met betekenisvolle voorstellingen. Het geheel gaf uitdrukking aan de economische positie, ambities en denkbeelden van de opdrachtgeefster. De schilder Bisschop bezat de intellectuele capaciteit om de boodschap in een bijzondere iconografie uit te werken. Schilderingen als in het Koopmanshuis – zonder kennis van deze achtergrond niet eenvoudig te begrijpen – zijn interessant en relevant voor de geschiedenis van de Nederlandse decoratieschilderkunst.

One-Year Follow-Up: Schema Therapy for Patients With Borderline Personality Disorder and Comorbid Alcohol Use Disorder

This article describes the 1-year follow-up of a study into the effectiveness of Schema Therapy (ST) for borderline personality disorder (BPD) and comorbid alcohol use disorder (AUD). In the original study, 20 of these patients participated in a multiple baseline case series design study. The results of the original study were promising (a significant decrease of BPD and AUD symptoms). The present study is aimed at examining the longer term benefits of ST for BPD and comorbid AUD. One year after the cessation of the investigational therapy, 17 of the original participants agreed to participate in this follow-up study. T- or Wilcoxon signed rank tests were performed to compare 1-year follow-up to start of therapy (baseline). The results suggest that the main therapeutic improvements were generally preserved at 1-year follow-up. These findings add to the idea that integrated ST for BPD and comorbid AUD might be effective, also in the long term. A randomized clinical trial is indicated to substantiate this idea.</p

THREE DIMENSIONAL ARTHROKINEMATIC ANALYSIS OF THE LATE PREPARATORY PHASE OF HANDBALL THROWING

INTRODUCTION: At full cocking, functional instability of the glenohumeral (GH) joint is commonly found in handball players. In the past, 2D radiography was used to examine the in vivo translation of the humeral head (HH) on the glenoid cavity (GC). Considering the restraint validity of 2D methods to estimate 3D motion, 3D intra-articular GH kinematical data were obtained on the late cocking phase of handball throwing, using fast helical CT scanning. METHODS: Based on the CT data, 3D bone reconstructions of 3 asymptomatic and 3 functionally unstable GH joints (1 internal impingement, 2 with minor anterior GH instability) in handball players were acquired from a position with the shoulder in 90° abduction and 90° external rotation, and from a position of full cocking assessed on an individual basis. Kinematic analysis was based on a least squares method and linked to the finite helical axis (FHA) concept. After virtual disarticulation, a local frame was embedded on the GC. Subsequently, the GH FHA parameters of direction, rotation and shift were decomposed on this local frame. The displacement of the center of curvature of the HH was related to the GC. Based on an analytic error propagation model, the estimates of the rotation angle, the direction vector and the shift showed highly accurate results. The estimate of the position vector was insufficient for a mathematical analysis and therefore obtained graphically in the finite plane of motion, perpendicularly situated on the FHA. Subsequently, GH contact areal displacement of the mating articular surfaces was analyzed in this finite plane of motion. RESULTS: Towards full cocking, the HH of the asymptomatic shoulders practically did not externally/internally rotate on the local GC frame. The internal impingement demonstrated an accentuated GH external rotation, attended by a dysfunction in scapular setting, with a normal posterior translation of the HH on the GC. Minor anterior GH instability showed a diminished posterior translation of the center of the HH on the GC, as well as an accentuated external rotation. GH contact areal displacement in the normal throwing shoulders and the test case with internal impingement revealed roll behavior. The test cases with minor anterior GH instability featured a pivot. CONCLUSIONS: This research demonstrated the use of helical CT data reconstruction of joint structures with the implementation of an FHA approach to study the 6 degrees of freedom of intra-articular motion assessing a local articular embedded frame and contact areal displacements. The study provided insight in the arthrokinematics of functional instability of the GH joint at late cocking

One-Year Follow-Up:Schema Therapy for Patients With Borderline Personality Disorder and Comorbid Alcohol Use Disorder

This article describes the 1-year follow-up of a study into the effectiveness of Schema Therapy (ST) for borderline personality disorder (BPD) and comorbid alcohol use disorder (AUD). In the original study, 20 of these patients participated in a multiple baseline case series design study. The results of the original study were promising (a significant decrease of BPD and AUD symptoms). The present study is aimed at examining the longer term benefits of ST for BPD and comorbid AUD. One year after the cessation of the investigational therapy, 17 of the original participants agreed to participate in this follow-up study. T- or Wilcoxon signed rank tests were performed to compare 1-year follow-up to start of therapy (baseline). The results suggest that the main therapeutic improvements were generally preserved at 1-year follow-up. These findings add to the idea that integrated ST for BPD and comorbid AUD might be effective, also in the long term. A randomized clinical trial is indicated to substantiate this idea.</p

Leading the way: The EFRS’ efforts to improve patient safety across Europe through radiographers.

The European Federation of Radiographer Societies (EFRS) represents, promotes and develops the radiography profession within Europe and across all radiography specialisations. With 45 national professional bodies as members and 66 academic institutions that deliver radiography education also as members the EFRS actively supports over 105,000 radiographers and 8,500 radiography students. Radiographers play a crucial role within medical imaging, nuclear medicine and radiotherapy. Radiographers combine their interpersonal and technical skills to work together with patients and (ever evolving) medical technology. Central to the role is effective communication skills and an understanding of the importance of patient care and safety aspects. The EFRS publishes a number of statements, research publications and delivers webinars to further develop the profession and to build a stronger culture surrounding patient safety within the radiographers’ practice all across Europe