Asset Pricing in a Two-Country Discontinuous General Equilibrium Model

The aim of this paper is to develop a framework for asset pricing in a continuous time general equilibrium model for a two country Lucas type economy. The model assumes that the output in the two countries follows a jump-diffusion stochastic process characterized by constant growth rates and volatilities and by log-normal amplitude of the jumps. Using this specification we deduce the fundamental evaluation equations for financial assets as well as a formula for the price of exchange rate options in this economy.general equilibrium model, two-country Lucas economy, exchange rate, risk premium, jump-diffusion

A Two-Country Discontinuous General Equilibrium Model

The aim of this paper is to develop a continuous time general equilibrium model for a two country Lucas type economy. The model assumes that the output in the two countries follows a jump-diffusion stochastic process. We obtain the results concerning the evaluation of financial assets, the determination of the exchange rate, of the interest rate, and of the risk premium in this two-country economy.general equilibrium model, two-country Lucas economy, exchange rate, risk premium, jump-diffusion

Pricing European and Barrier Options in the Fractional Black-Scholes Market

The aim of this paper is to obtain the valuation formulas for European and barrier options if the underlying of the option contract is supposed to be driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter greater than 0.5. The paper is build upon the framework developed in Necula (2007) for the valuation of derivative products in the fractional Black-Scholes market. We also obtain a reflection principle for the fractional Brownian motion.fractional Brownian motion, fractional Black-Scholes market, the reflection principle for the fractional Brownian motion, mathematical finance, European option, barrier option

Modeling Heavy-Tailed Stock Index Returns Using the Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution

In the present study, we estimate the parameters of the Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution for a series of stock index returns including the Romanian BETC and indexes from other two Eastern European countries, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Using different econometric techniques, we investigate whether the estimated Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution is an appropriate approximation for the empirical distribution computed by non-parametric kernel econometric methods. The main finding of the analysis is that the probability density function of the estimated Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution represents a very close approximation (at least up to the 4th order term) of the empirical probability distribution function.Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution, heavy-tailed returns, non-parametric density estimation

Modeling the Dependency Structure of Stock Index Returns using a Copula Function Approach

In the present study we assess the dependency structure between stock indexes by econometrically estimating the empirical copula function and the parameters of various parametric copula functions. The main finding is that the t-copula and the Gumbel-Clayton mixture copula are the most appropriate copula functions to capture the dependency structure of two financial return series. With the dependency structure given by the estimated copula functions we quantify the efficient portfolio frontier using as a risk measure CVaR (Conditional VaR) computed by Monte Carlo simulation. We find that in the case of using normal distributions for modeling individual returns the market risk is underestimated no mater what copula function is employed to capture the dependency structure.copula functions, copula mixtures, the efficient portfolio frontier, Conditional VAR, Monte Carlo simulation

A Framework for Derivative Pricing in the Fractional Black-Scholes Market

The aim of this paper is to develop a framework for evaluating derivatives if the underlying of the derivative contract is supposed to be driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter greater than 0.5. For this purpose we first prove some results regarding the quasi-conditional expectation, especially the behavior to a Girsanov transform. We obtain the risk-neutral valuation formula and the fundamental evaluation equation in the case of the fractional Black-Scholes market.fractional Brownian motion, fractional Black-Scholes market, quasiconditional expectation, mathematical finance, contingent claim

A Robust Assessment of the Romanian Business Cycle

The paper provides potential output and output gap estimates for the Romanian economy in the period 1998 - 2008. Our approach consists in combining the structural method of the production function with several non-structural statistical detrending methods: Hodrick-Prescott, Kalman, band-pass, and wavelet transform filters. In this way, the obtained results benefit both from the economic foundations the production function method is relying on, as well as from the flexibility of the detrending techniques. The contribution of our analysis to the scarce literature dealing with the estimation of the cyclical position of the Romanian economy is twofold. First, we identify the contribution of the production factors to the potential output growth. Second, we aggregate the results obtained through filtering techniques in a consensus estimate ascribing to each method a weight inversely related to its revision stability. Our results suggest for the period 2000-2008 an average annual growth rate of the potential output equal to 5.8%, but on a descendant slope at the end of the analyzed period, due to the adverse developments in the macroeconomic context.potential GDP, output gap, NAIRU, business cycle

MODELING THE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ROMANIA. THE INFLUENCE OF FISCAL REGIMES

Taking into consideration the importance of the sustainability of public finance, in the present study we calibrate and simulate a three-sector Greiner, Semmler and Gong (2004) model for the Romanian economy. The simulations were performed considering three fiscal regimes, defined according to the way the government expenditures were financed. By calibrating the model to the Romanian economy, we determine for each fiscal regime the optimal tax rate, that is the tax that maximizes the long-run growth rate, and we forecast the evolution of the real GDP.endogenous economic growth, fiscal regime, three-sector economy, path simulation, public capital, balanced growth path

Estimating The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance For The Romanian Economy. A Robust Approach

This paper provides estimates for the structural fiscal balance for the Romanian economy over the period 1998-2008. The calculation of the structural fiscal balance is useful, since it provides a clear picture of the fiscal stance of the economy and it is essential in the context of a medium term fiscal framework. In order to ensure the robustness of the estimation, we employed two methodologies for the computation of the elasticities of various categories of government revenues and expenditures with respect to the output gap. The two approaches issued similar results, the overall average budget sensitivity being equal to 0.285 and 0.290, respectively. The amplitude of the cyclical budget balance is around 1% of GDP. After constant improvement, the structural balance worsened in 2008, due mainly to the current crisis.fiscal policy, structural fiscal balance, cyclical budget balance, business cycle, tax elasticity

MODELING THE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ROMANIA. THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL

We simulate possible growth paths assuming that the Romanian economy behaves according to the hypothesis of the Uzawa-Lucas model. By calibrating the model to the Romanian economy, we are able to forecast the evolution of the Romanian GDP and the proportion of human capital which will be used in the production of goods and services. Although the population growth rate is considered to be zero, the average real GDP growth rate is around 6% due to the human capital accumulation, which improves the quality of labor.endogenous economic growth, human capital, two-sector economy, path simulation, Uzawa-Lucas model