The potential for domestic thermal insulation retrofits on the South African Highveld

The South African Highveld is a portion on the inland plateau characterized by low winter ambient temperatures. Studies done in several climatic regions around the world have found a positive relationship between inadequate housing and low indoor temperatures during the winter season. Prolonged exposure to low indoor temperature is a threat to human physical health. This study characterizes indoor human thermal comfort conditions in typical low-income residential dwellings during the winter season. Mapping indoor human thermal comfort can assist in exploring the potential for domestic thermal insulation retrofits interventions. In-situ temperature measurements were done in 2014, 2016 and 2017 across three Highveld settlements of kwaZamokuhle, kwaDela, and Jouberton. The sample included a mixture of old (pre-1994), post 1994 Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) as well as non-RDP structures. Findings were that 88% of sampled dwellings in Jouberton 2016, 86% in Jouberton 2017, 62% in kwaDela and 58% in kwaZamokuhle had daily mean temperatures below the WHO guideline of 18°C. These low indoor temperatures indicate poor insulation in these sampled dwellings. Across all settlements, insulated dwellings had higher daily mean indoor temperatures than non-insulated dwellings. These findings indicate the potential to use thermal insulation retrofits in improving indoor thermal conditions as the majority of dwellings are non-insulated thereby exposing occupants to low indoor temperatures

Considering flood risk in spatial development planning: a land use conflict analysis approach

Flooding is the predominant natural hazard observed in Africa, and it often leads to damage to property and losses in human lives. To ensure that the detrimental effects of flooding are kept to a minimum, flood-prone areas should best be left undeveloped. Spatial development planning is a tool that can assist disaster risk managers in ensuring the aforementioned. This article proposes the use of a land use conflict analysis approach through which flood risk can be considered in spatial development planning in a proactive manner, specifically contributing to the flood risk management effort. A land use conflict analysis approach, relying on a variety of spatial analysis techniques, was used to identify areas that were both suitable for residential development and free from flood risk in the Batlhaping Ba-Ga-Phuduhucwana tribal area in South Africa. It was found that only 8% of the study area met these criteria. A comparison between the identified 8% and the existing spatial development plan for the study area revealed that some of the areas portrayed as suitable for development in the current spatial development plan are in fact flood risk areas. The article illustrates the value that a land use conflict analysis approach might have for flood risk management when integrated with spatial development planning

Plant endemism in Griqualand West, South Africa

Griqualand West, a region in the semi-arid Northern Cape and North-West provinces of South Africa, has been variously suggested to contain a number of range-restricted plant species, and was proposed to be a local centre of plant endemism. The Griqualand West Centre (GWC), hitherto demarcated by geological features and limited floristic data, is hereby investigated to determine the true levels of endemism and its extent of occurrence. Findings suggest that at least 23 plant species have their natural distribution ranges restricted to the Griqualand West region. These endemics represent 1.4% of the region's flora. Although this is a lower than the predicted level of endemism, it matches the trends of endemicity found in other centres in semi-arid savanna of southern Africa. Many of the GWC endemics show indications of holo-endemism owing to their apparent preference for the Ca- and Mg-rich substrates of the Ghaap Plateau. When the total distributions of all GWC endemic species are considered, then the resulting boundary of the GWC is more extensive than the substantial area already proposed previously (> 40,000 km2). This study therefore proposes the concept of ‘core area’ in which distant outlier populations of endemic species (> 100 km outside the main distribution range with no suitable habitat in between) are discarded during the demarcation of the centre's boundary. It is proposed that this concept is best applied when assessing extensive areas with few endemic species. A more refined GWC core area will allow for more effective conservation and future research efforts by focussing attention on those areas where high numbers of endemic plant species co-occur. Within the GWC core area, specific regions, such as the increasingly densely populated Kimberley region, the banded ironstone hill ranges, and the unique environment that is the Ghaap Plateau, are highlighted as areas of conservation importance.The National Research Foundation (Grant UID: 103370), South Africahttp://www.elsevier.com/locate/sajb2020-08-01hj2020Plant Production and Soil Scienc

An administrative justice perspective on improving EIA effectiveness

The aim of this letter is to provide an administrative justice perspective on EIA effectiveness. EIA is described as essentially an administrative instrument, reflecting a number of principles that revolve around an assessment process which should reflect administrative justice. This includes lawfulness, procedural fairness and reasonableness. Consciously and explicitly incorporating these principles into EIA decision-making has significant potential to strengthen EIA effectiveness and making it fit for the twenty-first centur

Gaining a deeper understanding of the psychology underpinning significance judgements in environmental impact assessment (EIA)

Significance judgements lie at the heart of EIA and provide the basis and justification for overall decision making. Although the subjective nature of significance judgements is widely recognized there has been limited research aimed at gaining a deeper understanding of its implications. This paper builds on the growing tradition of exploring learning from psychology in dealing with challenges in EIA practice, in this case significance judgements. The aim of the research is therefore, to gain a deeper understanding of the psychology underpinning significance judgements. This is achieved by applying 10 concepts from psychology to the four steps in the ‘significance spectrum model’ namely: decide thresholds, make predictions, judge acceptability and consider mitigation. The results suggest that significance judgements should (with underpinning concepts from psychology provided in parentheses) aim for a limited number of key thresholds (paradox of choice); design thresholds with future gains in mind (loss aversion), reconsider probability scoring (possibility and certainty effect); avoid judgements based on limited information (What You See Is All There Is, WHYSIATI); utilise statistical prediction over expert opinion (expert fallacy); communicate carefully (priming, framing and cognitive ease); and consider personal attitudes and biases (affect heuristic)

Modelling the historical distribution of schistosomiasis-transmitting snails in South Africa using ecological niche models.

Schistosomiasis is a vector-borne disease transmitted by freshwater snails and is prevalent in rural areas with poor sanitation and no access to tap water. Three snail species are known to transmit schistosomiasis in South Africa (SA), namely Biomphalaria pfeifferi, Bulinus globosus and Bulinus africanus. In 2003, a predicted prevalence of 70% was reported in tropical climates in SA. Temperature and rainfall variability can alter schistosomiasis-transmitting snails' development by increasing or decreasing their abundance and geographical distribution. This study aimed to map the historical distribution of schistosomiasis from 1950 to 2006 in SA. The snail sampling data were obtained from the historical National Snail Freshwater Collection (NFSC). Bioclimatic variables were extracted using ERA 5 reanalysis data provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service. In this study, we used 19 bioclimatic and four soil variables. The temporal aggregation was the mean climatological period pre-calculated over the 40-year reference period with a spatial resolution of 0.5° x 0.5°. Multicollinearity was reduced by calculating the Variance Inflation Factor Core (VIF), and highly correlated variables (> 0.85) were excluded. To obtain an "ensemble" and avoid the integration of weak models, we averaged predictions using the True Skill Statistical (TSS) method. Results showed that the ensemble model achieved the highest Area Under the Curve (AUC) scores (0.99). For B. africanus, precipitation-related variables contributed to determining the suitability for schistosomiasis. Temperature and precipitation-related variables influenced the distribution of B. globosus in all three models. Biomphalaria pfeifferi showed that Temperature Seasonality (bio4) contributed the most (47%) in all three models. According to the models, suitable areas for transmitting schistosomiasis were in the eastern regions of South Africa. Temperature and rainfall can impact the transmission and distribution of schistosomiasis in SA. The results will enable us to develop future projections for Schistosoma in SA based on climate scenarios

Complexity, Modeling, and Natural Resource Management

This paper contends that natural resource management (NRM) issues are, by their very nature, complex and that both scientists and managers in this broad field will benefit from a theoretical understanding of complex systems. It starts off by presenting the core features of a view of complexity that not only deals with the limits to our understanding, but also points toward a responsible and motivating position. Everything we do involves explicit or implicit modeling, and as we can never have comprehensive access to any complex system, we need to be aware both of what we leave out as we model and of the implications of the choice of our modeling framework. One vantage point is never sufficient, as complexity necessarily implies that multiple (independent) conceptualizations are needed to engage the system adequately. We use two South African cases as examples of complex systems - restricting the case narratives mainly to the biophysical domain associated with NRM issues - that make the point that even the behavior of the biophysical subsystems themselves are already complex. From the insights into complex systems discussed in the first part of the paper and the lessons emerging from the way these cases have been dealt with in reality, we extract five interrelated generic principles for practicing science and management in complex NRM environments. These principles are then further elucidated using four further South African case studies - organized as two contrasting pairs - and now focusing on the more difficult organizational and social side, comparing the human organizational endeavors in managing such systems