Structural interactions and long run growth: an application of experimental design to agent based models

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Production structure and economic fluctuations

We aim at contributing to the debate on the mechanisms and properties of economic fluctuations. We consider a crucial aspect among many thought to influence this ubiquitous and extremely relevant phenomenon: the interaction structure that characterises the organisation of production, that is, the production relation among sectors of a system. We build — and simulate — a very simple model representing an input–output system where sectors/firms adapt production and desired levels of stocks. Their output serves both an exogenous final demand and the intermediate demand solicited by the other sectors of the system. Series of simulation runs allow to derive relevant and non–obvious conclusions concerning the levels and, more importantly, the volatility of economic activity, as an outcome of the same, inherent, economic structure. We claim that the results that we obtain through the highly abstract representation we use, provide useful intuitions on the working of economic cycles, to be later integrated by further studies. As a by–product of our analysis, we also suggest that the methodology we adopt can provide valuable insights by allowing a detailed analysis of the time path generated in the artificial systems, and there- fore assessing with precisions the same mechanisms that affect real–world systems. The natural following step, left for further research, is to investigate how those mechanisms are empirically generated

Diffusion of shared goods in consumer coalitions. An agent-based model

This paper focuses on the process of coalition formation conditioning the common decision to adopt a shared good, which cannot be afforded by an average single consumer and whose use cannot be exhausted by any single consumer. An agent based model is developed to study the interplay between these two processes: coalition formation and diffusion of shared goods. Coalition formation is modelled in an evolutionary game theoretic setting, while adoption uses elements from both the Bass and the threshold models. Coalitions formation sets the conditions for adoption, while diffusion influences the consequent formation of coalitions. Results show that both coalitions and diffusion are subject to network effects and have an impact on the information flow though the population of consumers. Large coalitions are preferred over small ones since individual cost is lower, although it increases if higher quantities are purchased collectively. The paper concludes by connecting the model conceptualisation to the on-going discussion of diffusion of sustainable goods, discussing related policy implications

Production Structure and Economic Fluctuations

We aim at contributing to the debate on the mechanisms and properties of economic fluctuations. We consider a crucial aspect among many thought to influence this ubiquitous and extremely relevant phenomenon: the interaction structure that characterises the organisation of production, that is, the production relation among sectors of a system. We build — and simulate — a very simple model representing an input–output system where sectors/firms adapt production and desired levels of stocks. Their output serves both an exogenous final demand and the intermediate demand solicited by the other sectors of the system. Series of simulation runs allow to derive relevant and non–obvious conclusions concerning the levels and, more importantly, the volatility of economic activity, as an outcome of the same, inherent, economic structure. We claim that the results that we obtain through the highly abstract representation we use, provide useful intuitions on the working of economic cycles, to be later integrated by further studies. As a by–product of our analysis, we also suggest that the methodology we adopt can provide valuable insights by allowing a detailed analysis of the time path generated in the artificial systems, and therefore assessing with precisions the same mechanisms that affect real– world systems. The natural following step, left for further research, is to investigate how those mechanisms are empirically generated.Production structure, micro- and macro-volatility, simulation models

Exporting and productivity as part of the growth process: causal evidence from a data-driven structural VAR

This paper introduces a little known category of estimators - Linear Non-Gaussian vector autoregression models that are acyclic or cyclic - imported from the machine learning literature, to revisit a well-known debate. Does exporting increase firm productivity? Or is it only more productive firms that remain in the export market? We focus on a relatively well-studied country (Chile) and on already-exporting firms (i.e. the intensive margin of exporting). We explicitly look at the co-evolution of productivity and growth, and attempt to ascertain both contemporaneous and lagged causal relationships. Our findings suggest that exporting does not have any causal influence on the other variables. Instead, export seems to be determined by other dimensions of firm growth. With respect to learning by exporting (LBE), we find no evidence that export growth causes productivity growth within the period and very little evidence that exporting growth has a causal effect on subsequent TFP growth

Economic growth, innovation systems, and institutional change: a trilogy in five parts

Development and growth are products of the interplay and interaction among heterogeneous actors operating in specific institutional settings. There is a much alluded-to, but under-investigated, link between economic growth, innovation systems, and institutions. There is widespread agreement among most economists on the positive reinforcing link between innovation and growth. However, the importance of institutions as catalysts in this link has not been adequately examined. The concept of innovation systems has the potential to fill this gap. But these studies have not conducted in-depth institutional analyses or focussed on institutional transformation processes, thereby failing to link growth theory to the substantive institutional tradition in economics. In this paper we draw attention to the main shortcomings of orthodox and heterodox growth theories, some of which have been addressed by the more descriptive literature on innovation systems. Critical overviews of the literatures on growth and innovation systems are used as a foundation to propose a new perspective on the role of institutions and a framework for conducting institutional analysis using a multi-dimensional typology of institutions. The framework is then applied to cases of Taiwan and South Korea to highlight the instrumental role played by institutions in facilitating and curtailing economic development and growth

Economic growth, innovation systems, and institutional change: A Trilogy in Five Parts

Development and growth are products of the interplay and interaction among heterogeneous actors operating in specific institutional settings. There is a much alluded-to, but under-investigated, link between economic growth, innovation systems, and institutions. There is widespread agreement among most economists on the positive reinforcing link between innovation and growth. However, the importance of institutions as catalysts in this link has not been adequately examined. The concept of innovation systems has the potential to fill this gap. But these studies have not conducted in-depth institutional analyses or focussed on institutional transformation processes, thereby failing to link growth theory to the substantive institutional tradition in economics. In this paper we draw attention to the main shortcomings of orthodox and heterodox growth theories, some of which have been addressed by the more descriptive literature on innovation systems. Critical overviews of the literatures on growth and innovation systems are used as a foundation to propose a new perspective on the role of institutions and a framework for conducting institutional analysis using a multi-dimensional typology of institutions. The framework is then applied to cases of Taiwan and South Korea to highlight the instrumental role played by institutions in facilitating and curtailing economic development and growth.economics of technology ;

Child labor and conflict: evidence from Afghanistan

We study the impact of conflict on both the extensive and the intensive margin of child labor in Afghanistan. We identify and test two main mechanisms. First, if conflict reduces a household income through a decline in parent's compensations, child labor may insure against the decrease in consumption (extensive margin). Second, a child may work longer hours if the marginal benefits of working under conflict is greater than its marginal cost, which may depend on the relative compensations between adults and children, and on the alternative activities (e.g. schooling). Using detailed conflict data from the Afghan War Diary we identify the effect of conflict relying on a shift-share IV strategy. We find that conflict increases the probability that girls work, but reduces the number of hours worked. Our results suggest that this is due to a decrease in household income and an increase in the relative compensations of adults

Conflict and Entrepreneurial Activity in Afghanistan: Findings from the National Risk Vulnerability Assessment Data

The paper examines the relationship between conflict and entrepreneurial activity in Afghanistan, drawing upon a unique data set, the National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment household survey 2005. Afghanistan is severely underdeveloped and poor. Conflict has persisted in vast swathes of the country for decades, so that Afghanistan may be more appropriately described as an in-, rather than post-, conflict country. At the same time, qualitative (and anecdotal) evidence suggests that entrepreneurial activity is ubiquitous, although mainly due to survival strategies rather than a spirit of entrepreneurialism We empirically explore whether conflict affects the likelihood of a household to engage in entrepreneurial activity, proxied by sources of income coming from holding a small business. We control for the household characteristics and those of the environment, such as social capital, access to resources and infrastructure, as well as the presence of a minimal institutional governance system, to isolate the impact of conflict on household entrepreneurial behaviour. We find that the direct negative effect of the conflict on entrepreneurship is very small. The results on the control variables suggest that (i) the generation of entrepreneurship has seen conflict and instability for a whole life,( ii) a small business is a mean of surviving in a situation where any other support is lacking, (iii) it is a viable strategy when the household can cover some of the associated risks, (iv) there is no indirect effect of conflict via institutions and infrastructure, and (v) entrepreneurial activity may substitute for lacking markets and governance institutions. These results call for further and more in-depth research on Afghanistan as an overlooked area of study by the academic and development research community despite representing a priority for internationally supported reconstruction.entrepreneurship, conflict, Afghanistan, national risk vulnerability assessment

Structural changes and sustainability. A selected review of the empirical evidence

The paper offers a review of selected topics in the empirical literature on structural change and sustainability. We focus on aspects of structural change that directly affect emissions and energy intensity: changes of the sectoral composition of economies, trade and international fragmentation of production, technological change and innovation, and demand. We identify several empirical facts. First, only a few countries have experienced a decoupling between growth and emissions, due to proportionately faster growth rather than greater energy efficiency. Second, the long-term shift from manufacturing to services has not led, in all cases, to the de-materialisation of economies and a lower environmental burden. Exploitation of energy efficiency increases depends on the ability of the service sectors to incorporate technical changes to reduce energy intensity. Third, global trade and energy and emissions intensity trends support the ‘pollution haven’ hypothesis, which predicts displacement of the environmental burden from developed to emerging countries. The pursuit by developing countries of a long-term strategy of ‘trading jobs for emissions' is likely to exacerbate the asymmetry related to emissions intensities between developed and less developed economies. The review should inform debate on environmental policy within the broader context of innovation and development policies