Volatility decomposition of Australian housing prices

This study examines the volatility pattern of Australian housing prices. The approach for this research was to decompose the conditional volatility of housing prices into a &ldquo;permanent&rdquo; component and a &ldquo;transitory&rdquo; component via a Component-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (C-GARCH) model. The results demonstrate that the shock impact on the short-run component (transitory) is much larger than the long-run component (permanent), whereas the persistence of transitory shocks is much less than permanent shocks. Moreover, both permanent and transitory volatility components have different determinants. The results provide important new insights into the volatility pattern of housing prices which has direct implications for investment in housing by owner-occupiers and investors.<br /

Low-frequency volatility of real estate securities in relation to macroeconomic risk

Real estate securities have a number of distinct characteristics that differentiate them from stocks generally. Key amongst them is that under-pinning the firms are both real as well as investment assets. The connections between the underlying macro-economy and listed real estate firms is therefore clearly demonstrated and of heightened importance. To consider the linkages with the underlying macro-economic fundamentals we extract the ‘low-frequency’ volatility component from aggregate volatility shocks in 11 international markets over the 1990-2014 period. This is achieved using Engle and Rangel’s (2008) Spline-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (Spline-GARCH) model. The estimated low-frequency volatility is then examined together with low-frequency macro data in a fixed-effect pooled regression framework. The analysis reveals that the low-frequency volatility of real estate securities has strong and positive association with most of the macroeconomic risk proxies examined. These include interest rates, inflation, GDP and foreign exchange rates

Downside systematic risk in Australian listed property trusts

Previous studies on systematic risk have demonstrated the link between financial and management structure determinants and systematic risk. However, systematic risk is estimated by assuming return is normally distributed. This assumption is generally rejected for real estate returns. Therefore, downside systematic risk appears as a more sensible risk measure in estimating market-related risk. This study contributes to this body of knowledge by examining the determinants of downside systematic risk in Australian Listed Property Trusts (LPTs) over 1993-2005. The results reveal that systematic risk and downside systematic risk are empirically distinguishable. More specifically, there is limited evidence on the connection between these financial and management structure determinants and systematic risk. However, downside systematic risk is sensitive to leverage and management structure.<br /

Listed property trusts and downside systematic risk sensitivity

Purpose: This paper aims to identify and examine the determinants of downside systematic risk in Australian listed property trusts (LPTs).Design/methodology/approach: Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and lower partial moment-CAPM (LPM-CAPM) are employed to compute both systematic risk and downside systematic risk. The methodology of Patel and Olsen and Chaudhry et al. is adopted to examine the determinants of systematic risk and downside systematic risk.Findings: The results confirm that systematic risk and downside systematic risk can be individually identified. There is little evidence to support the existence of linkages between systematic risk in Australian LPTs and financial/management structure determinants. On the other hand, downside systematic risk is directly related to the leverage/management structure of a LPT. The results are also robust after controlling for the LPTs\u27 investment characteristics and varying target rates of return.Practical implications: Investors and real estate analysts should conscious with the higher returns from high leverage and internally managed LPTs. Although there is no evidence that these higher returns are related to higher systematic risk, there could be the compensation for higher downside systematic risk.Originality/value: This study provides invaluable insights into the management of real estate risk in Australian LPTs with implications for REITs in other countries. Unlike previous studies of systematic risk in REITs or LPTs, this is the first study to assess downside systematic risk and explore the determinants of downside systematic risk in LPTs

Behaviours of property investors: an investigation on the risk perceptions of Australian property fund managers

Recent finance and real estate empirical and analytical studies have demonstrated that downside risk appears as an intuitively appealing risk measure in which it is more consistent with investors\u27 behaviours. Conversely, qualitative studies into the behaviours of investors, particularly real estate investors, have been relatively limited. This study seeks to address this shortfall and aims to examine the behaviours of property fund managers towards downside risk. A survey was conducted in order to investigate the risk perceptions of property fund managers and determine whether they only require compensation for bearing with higher downside risk. The acceptance level of downside risk in the property funds industry in Australia is also examined. The findings reveal that downside risk is more consistent with how investors individually perceive risk. However, there is also a gap between theoretical assertions and practice in which downside risk is not commonly used in the practice. The results give an insight into the knowledge base of property investors towards downside risk.<br /

An investigation on the risk perceptions of Australian property fund Managers

Recent empirical and analytical studies have demonstrated that downside risk appears as an intuitively appealing risk measure in which it is more consistent with investors&rsquo; behaviour. Conversely, qualitative studies into the behaviour of investors, particularly real estate investors, have been relatively limited. This study seeks to address this shortfall and aims to examine the perceptions of property fund managers towards risk. A survey was conducted to investigate the risk perceptions of property fund managers and determine whether they only require compensation for bearing with higher downside risk. The acceptance level of downside risk is also examined. The findings reveal that downside risk is more consistent with how investors individually perceive risk. However, there is also a gap between theoretical assertions and practice in which downside risk is not commonly used in the practice. The results give an insight into the knowledge base of property investors towards risk, particularly downside risk.<br /

Downside beta and the cross-sectional determinants of listed property trust returns

This study examines the importance of downside beta when seeking to explain variations in listed property trust (LPT) returns in Australia between 1993 and 2005. The results reveal that downside beta outperforms conventional beta and provides higher explanatory power to the cross-sectional LPT return variations. The results also indicate that investors only require a premium for downside risk. However, the explanatory power of downside beta has diminished once the co-kurtosis of LPTs is controlled. Interestingly, the results also reveal that by itself downside beta is unable to fully explain returns in line with strong evidence for momentum and book-to-market ratio. The findings provide additional insights for investors and real estate analysts into the pricing of LPTs

Momentum profits in Australian listed property trusts

This paper examines the profitability of momentum trading strategies in Australian listed property trusts (LPTs). Monthly value-weighted momentum portfolios are formed using the monthly excess returns of LPTs for the period from 1990 to 2005. Overall the findings confirm that a momentum trading strategy in Australian LPTs is a profitable strategy. More specifically, momentum strategies are profitable after adjusting for variance and downside risk where the momentum returns substantially outperform the benchmark. An analysis using different study periods confirm the findings about momentum. The practical implication from this study is that investors can generate substantial abnormal returns by adopting a momentum trading strategy, particularly with a long strategy (i.e. winner portfolios).<br /

Interest Rate Sensitivity in European Public Real Estate Markets

The importance of interest rates, in both financial markets and the broader economy, was clearly highlighted during and subsequent to the financial crisis of 2007-09. This paper examines the sensitivity of seven public real estate markets in Europe from 1995 to 2013. Europe is a particularly interesting market to look at in this context. Badly impacted during the financial crisis, it has been further affected by the sovereign debt crisis within the Eurozone. The introduction of the Euro and a single monetary policy within the Eurozone is a complicating factor that raises additional issues. The results highlight that, with one exception, the markets display significant sensitivity in terms of both returns and volatility. The results are, however, sensitive in both a temporal sense and to the interest rate-yield curve proxy used