On the sustainability of currency boards : evidence from Argentina and Hong Kong : [Version: September 2008]

This paper examines the sustainability of the currency board arrangements in Argentina and Hong Kong. We employ a Markov switching model with two regimes to infer the exchange rate pressure due to economic fundamentals and market expectations. The empirical results suggest that economic fundamentals and expectations are key determinants of a currency board’s sustainability. We also show that the government’s credibility played a more important role in Argentina than in Hong Kong. The trade surplus, real exchange rate and inflation rate were more important drivers of the sustainability of the Hong Kong currency board

A Dynamic Oligopoly Game of the US Airline Industry: Estimation and Policy Experiments

This paper studies the contribution of demand, costs, and strategic factors to the adoption of hub-and-spoke networks in the US airline industry. Our results are based on the estimation of a dynamic oligopoly game of network competition that incorporates three groups of factors that may explain hub-and-spoke networks: (1) travelers may value the services associated with the scale of operation of an airline in the hub airport; (2) operating costs and entry costs in a route may decline with the airline's scale of operation in the origin and destination airports (e.g., economies of scale and scope); and (3) a hub-and-spoke network may be an effective strategy to deter the entry of other carriers. We estimate the model using data from the Airline Origin and Destination Survey with information on quantities, prices, and entry and exit decisions for every airline company in the routes between the 55 largest US cities. As methodological contributions, we propose and apply a method to reduce the dimension of the state space in dynamic games, and a procedure to deal with the problem of multiple equilibria when using a estimated model to make counterfactual experiments. We find that the most important factor to explain the adoption of hub-and-spoke networks is that the cost of entry in a route declines importantly with the scale of operation of the airline in the airports of the route. For some of the larger carriers, strategic entry deterrence is the second most important factor to explain hub-and-spoke networks.Airline industry; Hub-and-spoke networks; Entry costs; Industry dynamics; Estimation of dynamic games; Counterfactual experiments in models with multiple equilibria.

A Dynamic Oligopoly Game of the US Airline Industry: Estimation and Policy Experiments

This paper studies the contribution of demand, costs, and strategic factors to the adoption of hub-and-spoke networks in the US airline industry. Our results are based on the estimation of a dynamic oligopoly game of network competition that incorporates three groups of factors which may explain the adoption of hub-and-spoke networks: (1) travelers value the services associated with the scale of operation of an airline in the hub airport (e.g., more convenient check-in and landing facilities); (2) operating costs and entry costs in a route may decline with an airline's scale operation in origin and destination airports (e.g., economies of scale and scope); and (3) a hub-and-spoke network may be an effective strategy to deter the entry of other carriers. We estimate the model using data from the Airline Origin and Destination Survey with information on quantities, prices, and entry and exit decisions for every airline company in the routes between the 55 largest US cities. As a methodological contribution, we propose and apply a simple method to deal with the problem of multiple equilibria when using the estimated model to predict the effects of changes in structural parameters. We find that the most important factor to explain the adoption of hub-and-spoke networks is that the cost of entry in a route declines very importantly with the scale of operation of the airline in the airports of the route. For some of the larger carriers, strategic entry deterrence is the second most important factor to explain hub-and-spoke networks.Airline industry; Hub-and-spoke networks; Entry costs; Industry dynamics; Estimation of dynamic games; Counterfactuals with multiple equilibria

A Dynamic Game of Airline Network Competition: Hub-and-Spoke Networks and Entry Deterrence

In a hub-and-spoke network, the total profit function of an airline is supermodular with respect to its entry decisions at different city-pairs. This source of complementarity implies that a hub-and-spoke network can be an effective strategy to deter entry of competitors. This paper presents a dynamic game of airlines network competition that incorporates this entry deterrence motive for using hub-and-spoke networks. We summarize the results of the estimation of the model, with particular attention to empirical evidence on the entry deterrence motive.Airline networks; Hub-and-spoke; Entry deterrence; Dynamic games; Supermodularity

Market Structure, Welfare, and Banking Reform in China

This paper examines the effects of market deregulation on consumers and state commercial banks in China, a large developing country. I jointly estimate a system of differentiated product demand and pricing equations under alternative market structures. While China's banking reforms overall have achieved mixed results, the consumer surplus of the deposit market has increased. The welfare effects from reforms are unevenly distributed, with losses skewed toward inland provinces and certain consumer groups. There is no clear evidence that the pricing of banking services has become more competitive after the reform, and such pricing remains subject to government intervention. Encouragingly, the price-cost margins of some state commercial banks have fallen over time.banking reform; banks in China; demand estimation; market structure

Catalytic Addition of Simple Alkenes to Carbonyl Compounds by Use of Group 10 Metals

Recent advances using nickel complexes in the activation of unactivated monosubstituted olefins for catalytic intermolecular carbon-carbon bond-forming reactions with carbonyl compounds, such as simple aldehydes, isocyanates, and conjugated aldehydes and ketones, are discussed. In these reactions, the olefins function as vinyl- and allylmetal equivalents, providing a new strategy for organic synthesis. Current limitations and the outlook for this new strategy are also discussed.National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U.S.) (GM-063775)National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U.S.) (GM-072566)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (CAREER CHE-0134704)Amgen Inc.Boehringer Ingelheim PharmaceuticalsBristol-Myers Squibb CompanyMerck & Co., Inc.GlaxoSmithKlineJohnson & JohnsonPfizer Inc.Alfred P. Sloan FoundationWyeth ResearchDeshpande Center for Technological InnovationNational Science Foundation (U.S.) (CHE-9809061)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (DBI-9729592)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (1S10RR13886-01

More than just engaging? TikTok as an effective learning tool.

With the growing popularity of social media, educators have been adopting social media platforms, such as TikTok, for learning purposes. Whilst the effectiveness of TikTok to increase learner engagement has been demonstrated, there was little evidence indicating the effectiveness of TikTok on actual learner performance through formal graded assessments. This study is one of the first attempts to investigate the effects of TikTok as a learning tool on learner performance. The findings from a controlled experiment indicate that TikTok had a beneficial impact on the learner\u27s performance as well as self-perceived engagement in an introductory statistics course

Effects of Gurney Flap on Supercritical and Natural Laminar Flow Transonic Aerofoil Performance

The aerodynamic effect of a novel combination of a Gurney flap and shockbump on RAE2822 supercritical aerofoil and RAE5243 Natural Laminar Flow (NLF) aerofoil is investigated by solving the two-dimensional steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equation. The shockbump geometry is predetermined and pre-optimised on a specific designed condition. This study investigated Gurney flap height range from 0.1% to 0.7% aerofoil chord length. The drag benefits of camber modification against a retrofit Gurney flap was also investigated. The results indicate that a Gurney flap has the ability to move shock downstream on both types of aerofoil. A significant lift-to-drag improvement is shown on the RAE2822, however, no improvement is illustrated on the RAE5243 NLF. The results suggest that a Gurney flap may lead to drag reduction in high lift regions, thus, increasing the lift-to-drag ratio before stall