Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) for Papua New Guinea

Developing and least developed countries are particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change and climate extremes, including drought. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), severe drought caused by the strong El Niño in 2015–2016 affected about 40% of the population, with almost half a million people impacted by food shortages. Recognizing the urgency of enhancing early warning systems to assist vulnerable countries with climate change adaptation, the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) international initiative has been established. In this chapter, the CREWS-PNG project is described. The CREWS-PNG project aims to develop an improved drought monitoring and early warning system, running operationally through a collaboration between PNG National Weather Services (NWS), the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the World Meteorological Organization that will enable better strategic decision-making for agriculture, water management, health and other climate-sensitive sectors. It is shown that current dynamical climate models can provide skillful predictions of regional rainfall at least 3 months in advance. Dynamical climate model-based forecast products are disseminated through a range of Web-based information tools. It is demonstrated that seasonal climate prediction is an effective solution to assist governments and local communities with informed decision-making in adaptation to climate variability and change

Monthly blended rainfall data created using GSMaP satellite and AGCD rainfall analysis from 2001 to 2021 over Australia, version 1

This NetCDF4 dataset contains gridded rainfall estimates created from a blend of Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) satellite rainfall and Australian Gridded Climate Dataset (AGCD) rain gauge analysis data. The blending process consisted of a two-step method. The first step involved correcting the data through the use of multiplicative ratio grids. For each month, the ratio of the satellite data to the rain gauge data was found at each station. These ratios were then converted into a grid using Ordinary Kriging. The ratio grid was then applied onto the original GSMaP data to form the corrected GSMaP data. The second step involved blending the corrected GSMaP data and AGCD data. The blend is formed from the weighted average of the two datasets using weights derived from their error variances. The weights were inversely proportional to the error variances of the respective datasets. The error variances were calculated on a seasonal basis using the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) dataset as truth. The weighted average is the final blended product. The temporal coverage of the data spans a total of 20 years from January 2001 to December 2020, on a monthly basis. The spatial domain of the data is a rectangular domain centred over Australia. The latitude ranges from 108 to 156 degrees east while the longitude ranges from -45 to -9 degrees north. The resolution is 0.1 degrees. The data was created in an attempt to provide better representation of rainfall away from rain gauges whilst retaining strong correlations to rain gauges where they exist. The algorithm described earlier was performed using Python 3. This is version 1 of the data. Refinements are planned in the future

A Comparison of Various Correction and Blending Techniques for Creating an Improved Satellite-Gauge Rainfall Dataset over Australia

Satellites offer a way of estimating rainfall away from rain gauges which can be utilised to overcome the limitations imposed by gauge density on traditional rain gauge analyses. In this study, Australian station data along with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s (JAXA) Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) and the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) Australian Gridded Climate Dataset (AGCD) rainfall analysis are combined to develop an improved satellite-gauge rainfall analysis over Australia that uses the strengths of the respective data sources. We investigated a variety of correction and blending methods with the aim of identifying the optimal blended dataset. The correction methods investigated were linear corrections to totals and anomalies, in addition to quantile-to-quantile matching. The blending methods tested used weights based on the error variance to MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted Ensemble Product), distance to the closest gauge, and the error from a triple collocation analysis to ERA5 and Soil Moisture to Rain. A trade-off between away-from- and at-station performances was found, meaning there was a complementary nature between specific correction and blending methods. The most high-performance dataset was one corrected linearly to totals and subsequently blended to AGCD using an inverse error variance technique. This dataset demonstrated improved accuracy over its previous version, largely rectifying erroneous patches of excessive rainfall. Its modular use of individual datasets leads to potential applicability in other regions of the world

Triple Collocation Analysis of Satellite Precipitation Estimates over Australia

The validation of precipitation estimates is necessary for the selection of the most appropriate dataset, as well as for having confidence in its selection. Traditional validation against gauges or radars is much less effective when the quality of these references (which are considered the ‘truth’) degrades, such as in areas of poor coverage. In scenarios like this where the ‘truth’ is unreliable or unknown, triple collocation analysis (TCA) facilitates a relative ranking of independent datasets based on their similarity to each other. TCA has been successfully employed for precipitation error estimation in earlier studies, but a thorough evaluation of its effectiveness over Australia has not been completed before. This study assesses the use of TCA for precipitation verification over Australia using satellite datasets in combination with reanalysis data (ERA5) and rain gauge data (AGCD) on a monthly timescale from 2001 to 2020. Both the additive and multiplicative models for TCA are evaluated. These results are compared against the traditional verification method using gauge data and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) as references. AGCD (KGE = 0.861), CMORPH-BLD (0.835), CHIRPS (0.743), and GSMaP (0.708) were respectively found to have the highest KGE when compared to MSWEP. The ranking of the datasets, as well as the relative difference in performance amongst the datasets as derived from TCA, can largely be reconciled with the traditional verification methods, illustrating that TCA is a valid verification method for precipitation over Australia. Additionally, the additive model was less prone to outliers and provided a spatial pattern that was more consistent with the traditional methods

Triple Collocation Analysis of Satellite Precipitation Estimates over Australia

The validation of precipitation estimates is necessary for the selection of the most appropriate dataset, as well as for having confidence in its selection. Traditional validation against gauges or radars is much less effective when the quality of these references (which are considered the ‘truth’) degrades, such as in areas of poor coverage. In scenarios like this where the ‘truth’ is unreliable or unknown, triple collocation analysis (TCA) facilitates a relative ranking of independent datasets based on their similarity to each other. TCA has been successfully employed for precipitation error estimation in earlier studies, but a thorough evaluation of its effectiveness over Australia has not been completed before. This study assesses the use of TCA for precipitation verification over Australia using satellite datasets in combination with reanalysis data (ERA5) and rain gauge data (AGCD) on a monthly timescale from 2001 to 2020. Both the additive and multiplicative models for TCA are evaluated. These results are compared against the traditional verification method using gauge data and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) as references. AGCD (KGE = 0.861), CMORPH-BLD (0.835), CHIRPS (0.743), and GSMaP (0.708) were respectively found to have the highest KGE when compared to MSWEP. The ranking of the datasets, as well as the relative difference in performance amongst the datasets as derived from TCA, can largely be reconciled with the traditional verification methods, illustrating that TCA is a valid verification method for precipitation over Australia. Additionally, the additive model was less prone to outliers and provided a spatial pattern that was more consistent with the traditional methods

Drought Detection over Papua New Guinea Using Satellite-Derived Products

This study evaluates the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Space-based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring (SWCEM) Demonstration Project precipitation products over Papua New Guinea (PNG). The products evaluated were based on remotely-sensed precipitation, vegetation health, soil moisture, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The satellite precipitation estimates of the Climate Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (CPC/NOAA) morphing technique (CMORPH) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s (JAXA) Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) were assessed on a monthly timescale over an 18-year period from 2001 to 2018. Station data along with the ERA5 reanalysis were used as the reference datasets for assessment purposes. In addition, a case study was performed to investigate how well the SWCEM precipitation products characterised drought in PNG associated with the 2015–2016 El Niño. Overall statistics from the validation study suggest that although there remains significant variability between satellite and ERA5 rainfall data in remote areas, this difference is much less at locations where rain gauges exist. The case study illustrated that the Vegetation Health Index (VHI), OLR anomaly and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were able to reliably capture the spatial and temporal aspects of the severe 2015–2016 El Niño-induced drought in PNG. Of the three, VHI appeared to be the most effective, in part due to its reduced incidence of false alarms. This study is novel as modern-day satellite-derived products have not been evaluated over PNG before. A focus on their value in monitoring drought can bring great value in mitigating the impact of future droughts. It is concluded that these satellite-derived precipitation products could be recommended for operational use for drought detection and monitoring in PNG, and that even a modest increase in ground-based observations will increase the accuracy of satellite-derived observations remotely

Correction: Chua, Z., et al. Drought Detection Over Papua New Guinea Using Satellite-Derived Products. Remote Sens. 2020, 12, 3859

The authors wish to make the following correction to this paper [...

A Two-Step Approach to Blending GSMaP Satellite Rainfall Estimates with Gauge Observations over Australia

An approach to developing a blended satellite-rainfall dataset over Australia that could be suitable for operational use is presented. In this study, Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) satellite precipitation estimates were blended with station-based rain gauge data over Australia, using operational station data that has not been harnessed by other blended products. A two-step method was utilized. First, GSMaP satellite precipitation estimates were adjusted using rain gauge data through multiplicative ratios that were gridded using ordinary kriging. This step resulted in reducing dry biases, especially over topography. The adjusted GSMaP data was then blended with the Australian Gridded Climate Dataset (AGCD) rainfall analysis, an operational station-based gridded rain gauge dataset, using an inverse error variance weighting method to further remove biases. A validation that was performed using a 20-year range (2001 to 2020) showed the proposed approach was successful; the resulting blended dataset displayed superior performance compared to other non-gauge-based datasets with respect to stations as well as displaying more realistic patterns of rainfall than the AGCD in areas with no rain gauges. The average mean absolute error (MAE) against station data was reduced from 0.89 to 0.31. The greatest bias reductions were obtained for extreme precipitation totals and over mountainous regions, provided sufficient rain gauge availability. The newly produced dataset supported the identification of a general positive bias in the AGCD over the north-west interior of Australia

A Two-Step Approach to Blending GSMaP Satellite Rainfall Estimates with Gauge Observations over Australia

An approach to developing a blended satellite-rainfall dataset over Australia that could be suitable for operational use is presented. In this study, Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) satellite precipitation estimates were blended with station-based rain gauge data over Australia, using operational station data that has not been harnessed by other blended products. A two-step method was utilized. First, GSMaP satellite precipitation estimates were adjusted using rain gauge data through multiplicative ratios that were gridded using ordinary kriging. This step resulted in reducing dry biases, especially over topography. The adjusted GSMaP data was then blended with the Australian Gridded Climate Dataset (AGCD) rainfall analysis, an operational station-based gridded rain gauge dataset, using an inverse error variance weighting method to further remove biases. A validation that was performed using a 20-year range (2001 to 2020) showed the proposed approach was successful; the resulting blended dataset displayed superior performance compared to other non-gauge-based datasets with respect to stations as well as displaying more realistic patterns of rainfall than the AGCD in areas with no rain gauges. The average mean absolute error (MAE) against station data was reduced from 0.89 to 0.31. The greatest bias reductions were obtained for extreme precipitation totals and over mountainous regions, provided sufficient rain gauge availability. The newly produced dataset supported the identification of a general positive bias in the AGCD over the north-west interior of Australia

A Comparison of Various Correction and Blending Techniques for Creating an Improved Satellite-Gauge Rainfall Dataset over Australia

Satellites offer a way of estimating rainfall away from rain gauges which can be utilised to overcome the limitations imposed by gauge density on traditional rain gauge analyses. In this study, Australian station data along with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s (JAXA) Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) and the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) Australian Gridded Climate Dataset (AGCD) rainfall analysis are combined to develop an improved satellite-gauge rainfall analysis over Australia that uses the strengths of the respective data sources. We investigated a variety of correction and blending methods with the aim of identifying the optimal blended dataset. The correction methods investigated were linear corrections to totals and anomalies, in addition to quantile-to-quantile matching. The blending methods tested used weights based on the error variance to MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted Ensemble Product), distance to the closest gauge, and the error from a triple collocation analysis to ERA5 and Soil Moisture to Rain. A trade-off between away-from- and at-station performances was found, meaning there was a complementary nature between specific correction and blending methods. The most high-performance dataset was one corrected linearly to totals and subsequently blended to AGCD using an inverse error variance technique. This dataset demonstrated improved accuracy over its previous version, largely rectifying erroneous patches of excessive rainfall. Its modular use of individual datasets leads to potential applicability in other regions of the world