207 research outputs found
Can Long-Run Restrictions Identify Technology Shocks?
Gali's innovative approach of imposing long-run restrictions on a vector autoregression (VAR) to identify the effects of a technology shock has become widely utilized. In this paper, we investigate its reliability through Monte Carlo simulations of several relatively standard business cycle models. We find it encouraging that the impulse responses derived from applying the Gali methodology to the artificial data generally have the same sign and qualitative pattern as the true responses. However, we highlight the importance of small-sample bias in the estimated impulse responses and show that the magnitude and sign of this bias depend on the model structure. Accordingly, we caution against interpreting responses derived from this approach as ``model-independent'' stylized facts. Moreover, we find considerable estimation uncertainty about the quantitative impact of a technology shock on macroeconomic variables, and a corresponding level of uncertainty about the contribution of technology shocks to the business cycletechnology shocks, vector autoregressions, real business cycles
The Transmission of Domestic Shocks in the Open Economy
This paper uses an open economy DSGE model to explore how trade openness affects the transmission of domestic shocks. For some calibrations, closed and open economies appear dramatically different, reminiscent of the implications of Mundell-Fleming style models. However, we argue such stark differences hinge on calibrations that impose an implausibly high trade price elasticity and Frisch elasticity of labor supply. Overall, our results suggest that the main effects of openness are on the composition of expenditure, and on the wedge between consumer and domestic prices, rather than on the response of aggregate output and domestic prices.
Money, sticky wages, and the Great Depression
This paper examines the ability of a simple stylized general equilibrium model that incorporates nominal wage rigidity to explain the magnitude and persistence of the Great Depression in the United States. The impulses to our analysis are money supply shocks. The Taylor contracts model is surprisingly successful in accounting for the behavior of major macroaggregates and real wages during the downturn phase of the Depression, i.e., from 1929:3 through mid-1933. Our analysis provides support for the hypothesis that a monetary contraction operating through a sticky wage channel played a significant role in accounting for the downturn, and also provides an interesting refinement to this explanation. In particular, both the absolute severity of the Depression's downturn and its relative severity compared to the 1920-21 recession are likely attributable to the price decline having a much larger unanticipated component during the Depression, as well as less flexible wage-setting practices during this latter period. Another finding casts doubt on explanations for the 1933-36 recovery that rely heavily on the substantial remonetization that began in 1933.Money supply ; Wages ; Depressions
Optimal monetary policy with durable and non-durable goods
The durable goods sector is much more interest sensitive than the non-durables sector, and these sectoral differences have important implications for monetary policy. In this paper, we perform VAR analysis of quarterly US data and find that a monetary policy innovation has a peak impact on durable expenditures that is roughly five times as large as its impact on non-durable expenditures. We then proceed to formulate and calibrate a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model that roughly matches the impulse response functions of the data. While the social welfare function involves sector-specific output gaps and inflation rates, we find that performance of the optimal policy rule can be closely approximated by a very simple rule that targets a weighted average of aggregate wage and price inflation rates. In contrast, some commonly-prescribed policy rules (such as strict5 price inflation targeting and Taylor's rule) perform very poorly in terms of social welfare. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E52
Tradeoffs Between Inflation and Output-Gap Variances in an Optimizing-Agent Model
We demonstrate the existence of a monetary policy tradeoff between price-inflation variability and output-gap variability in an optimizing-agent model with staggered nominal wage and price contracts. This variance tradeoff is absent only in the special case in which prices are sticky and wages are perfectly flexible. When the model is calibrated to exhibit an empirically reasonable degreee of nominal wage inertia, strict inflation targeting induces substantial output-gap volatility.monetary policy tradeoff; price-inflation variability; output-gap variability;
Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression
This paper examines the ability of a simple stylized general equilibrium model that incorporates nominal wage rigidity to explain the magnitude and persistence of the Great Depression in the United States. The impulses to our analysis are money supply shocks. The Taylor contracts model is surprisingly successful in accounting for the behavior of major macroaggregates and real wages during the downturn phase of the Depression, i.e., from 1929:3 through mid-1933. Our analysis provides support for the hypothesis that a monetary contraction operating through a sticky wage channel played a significant role in accounting for the downturn, and also provides an interesting refinement to this explanation. In particular, both the absolute severity of the Depression's downturn and its relative severity compared to the 1920-21 recession are likely attributable to the price decline having a much larger unanticipated component during the Depression, as well as less flexible wage-setting practices during this latter period. Another finding casts doubt on explanations for the 1933-36 recovery that rely heavily on the substantial remonetization that began in 1933.
Therapist Adherence in the Strong Without Anorexia Nervosa (SWAN) Study: A Randomized Controlled Trial of Three Treatments for Adults with Anorexia Nervosa
The Authors. International Journal of Eating Disorders Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Objective: To develop a psychotherapy
rating scale to measure therapist adherence
in the Strong Without Anorexia
Nervosa (SWAN) study, a multi-center
randomized controlled trial comparing
three different psychological treatments
for adults with anorexia nervosa. The
three treatments under investigation
were Enhanced Cognitive Behavioural
Therapy (CBT-E), the Maudsley Anorexia
Nervosa Treatment for Adults (MANTRA),
and Specialist Supportive Clinical
Management (SSCM).
Method: The SWAN Psychotherapy Rating
Scale (SWAN-PRS) was developed, after
consultation with the developers of the
treatments, and refined. Using the SWANPRS,
two independent raters initially
rated 48 audiotapes of treatment sessions
to yield inter-rater reliability data. One
rater proceeded to rate a total of 98
audiotapes from 64 trial participants.
Results: The SWAN-PRS demonstrated
sound psychometric properties, and
was considered a reliable measure of
therapist adherence. The three treatments
were highly distinguishable by
independent raters, with therapists
demonstrating significantly more
behaviors consistent with the actual
allocated treatment compared to the
other two treatment modalities. There
were no significant site differences in
therapist adherence observed.
Discussion: The findings provide support
for the internal validity of the SWAN
study. The SWAN-PRS was deemed suitable
for use in other trials involving CBT-E,
MANTRA, or SSCM. VC 2015 The Authors.
International Journal of Eating Disorders
Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc
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