A decision-theoretic approach for segmental classification

This paper is concerned with statistical methods for the segmental classification of linear sequence data where the task is to segment and classify the data according to an underlying hidden discrete state sequence. Such analysis is commonplace in the empirical sciences including genomics, finance and speech processing. In particular, we are interested in answering the following question: given data $y$ and a statistical model $\pi(x,y)$ of the hidden states $x$, what should we report as the prediction $\hat{x}$ under the posterior distribution $\pi (x|y)$? That is, how should you make a prediction of the underlying states? We demonstrate that traditional approaches such as reporting the most probable state sequence or most probable set of marginal predictions can give undesirable classification artefacts and offer limited control over the properties of the prediction. We propose a decision theoretic approach using a novel class of Markov loss functions and report $\hat{x}$ via the principle of minimum expected loss (maximum expected utility). We demonstrate that the sequence of minimum expected loss under the Markov loss function can be enumerated exactly using dynamic programming methods and that it offers flexibility and performance improvements over existing techniques. The result is generic and applicable to any probabilistic model on a sequence, such as Hidden Markov models, change point or product partition models.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOAS657 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The restrictiveness of the multi-fibre arrangement on Eastern European trade

Historically, Eastern Europe has not been favorably treated in terms of quota growth in the European Community and U.S. markets - often quite the contrary. But the EC and U.S. treatment of these countries has already changed since their reform and can be expected to become even more favorable. Eastern Europe's exports of textiles and clothing have tended to be more capital-intensive and less specialized than those of other major suppliers, including Asia's newly industrialized economies. Erzan and Holmes argue that Eastern Europe's expansion of relatively labor-intensive products has probably been inhibited byquotas and by the weak adjustment mechanisms inherent in a centrally planned economic system. If so, given market reforms in Eastern Europe, exports of labor-intensive textiles and clothing should expand more than proportionately and the degree of specialization should increase if the Multi-Fibre Arrangement is abolished or its grip on Eastern Europe's exports is relaxed in the EC. Putting aside questions of the composition of exports, textile and clothing exports are to expand considerably because they make up a large part of labor-intensive manufacturers, where Eastern Europe's comparative advantage lies in the near future.Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Adjustment and Lending,Access to Markets

How changes in the former CMEA area may affect international trade in manufactures

The authors give a long-term perspective on how changes in the former CMEA areas will affect international trade in manufactures. They show that expanding Eastern European exports to the West should be viewed as a step toward normalizing the Eastern European countries'trade patterns. First, proportionally less of the Eastern European economies'trade will be with each other, especially with the former Soviet Union. Second, Western Europe will be their major trading partner but their trade with (especially imports from) Japan and North America may increase dramatically (from a small base). Their exports to and imports from developing countries may also change dramatically. The volume of Eastern European trade is in line with the low income of these economies. In the long run manufactures trade will increase four- to sixfold, once Eastern European income levels catch up with industrial country levels. Until incomes in Eastern European and former Soviet economies increase significantly, labor-intensive goods are likely to dominate their exports to market economies, and sophisticated goods their imports. The authors contend that, since the end of the Cold War, the West has successfully improved the Eastern European countries'access to Western trade, and that the Eastern European countries should now enjoy equal or favorable treatment. Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland, in particular, may become the most favored outsiders in the European Economic Space, the largest single market in the world. One short-term effect of the Eastern European countries'improved outlook may be that developing countries that rely on manufactures for export revenues may have tougher times in major Western markets. But the emancipation of Eastern European and former Soviet economies - and the pent-up demand for consumer goods likely from deprived populations - should provide important opportunities for the dynamic developing countries. The former Soviet Union was not a large market for developing countries - except for India and Yugoslavia and to a lesser extent Algeria and Egypt. Countries such as India that did supply the former Soviet Union with manufactures may soon have to seek alternative markets.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Trade Policy,Transport and Trade Logistics

Research Project in Finance: Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI)

KMI is a buy because the market is currently mispricing the company due to fears over their CO2 segment and their debt level. First, it is currently being rumored that management is considering the sale of its CO2 business. This would be a positive because it would take away the concerns regarding CO2 and could help lead to a higher multiple. Additionally, the company’s backlog would become much more concentrated in higher growth areas if this segment is sold. Second, the debt picture is misunderstood. The company currently has an investment grade rating from the rating agencies and currently has a target debt level of 4.5x EBITDA. However, management is currently overachieving their own standards when it comes to realization of EBITDA from the backlog. With several major projects coming into service during the next 18 months. The FY2 and FY3 EBITDA numbers should be substantially better due to management’s success and even if management misses slightly the EBITDA figure should still improve, the question becomes by how much? Given these two misunderstandings, the market is currently trading KMI at the -1 St. Dev. of its earnings range when it should be trading much closer to average

Computer vision in vehicle and driver performance

This study identifies the key aspects required to measure driver performance and statistical analysis is performed on a number of participants conducting driving events around a specified route around Oxford, England. Steering, throttle and braking parameters are measured, analysed and characteristic behaviours are resulted. For each participant a professional driving assessor provide by the RDAC scores drivers on their performance

Planar micromachined glass cantilevers utilising integrated Bragg Fabry-Perot cavities

Here we demonstrate a glass cantilever based on a unique micromachining and etching approach, combined with UV written Bragg gratings. We shall also discuss the increase in sensitivity by using two Bragg gratings to form Fabry-Pérot cavity. Cantilevers are in ultra sensitive force sensors used in applications such as Atomic Force Microscopy, mass sensing and acoustic transducers