Sampling Bias Overestimates Climate Change Impacts on Forest Growth in the Southwestern United States

Climate−tree growth relationships recorded in annual growth rings have recently been the basis for projecting climate change impacts on forests. However, most trees and sample sites represented in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) were chosen to maximize climate signal and are characterized by marginal growing conditions not representative of the larger forest ecosystem. We evaluate the magnitude of this potential bias using a spatially unbiased tree-ring network collected by the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. We show that U.S. Southwest ITRDB samples overestimate regional forest climate sensitivity by 41–59%, because ITRDB trees were sampled at warmer and drier locations, both at the macro- and micro-site scale, and are systematically older compared to the FIA collection. Although there are uncertainties associated with our statistical approach, projection based on representative FIA samples suggests 29% less of a climate change-induced growth decrease compared to projection based on climate-sensitive ITRDB samples

The influence of land-use activities and regional drought on historical fire regimes of Buryatia, Siberia

Every year, millions of hectares burn across Siberia, driven by a combination of warming temperatures, regional drought and human-caused ignitions. Dendrochronology provides a long-term context to evaluate recent trends in fire activity and interpret the relative influence of humans and climate drivers on fire regimes. We developed a 400 year record of fire-scarred trees from 17 sites in pine-dominated forests located southeast of Lake Baikal. Site-level mean fire return intervals (MFIs) ranged from 4 to 27 years for all fires and 8 to 35 years for widespread fires within sites. Sites with the lowest MFI values were located within 1 km of agricultural fields in grassland valleys, suggesting that agricultural burning influenced MFIs at nearby sites. Fire frequency varied over the record, with significantly high values around 1790, from 1865 to 1880, 1948 to 1955 and 1995 to 2005. The increased fire activity corresponded with migration waves to the region and major socio-economic change connected with the establishment and breakdown of the Soviet Union. At broader scales, superposed epoch analysis showed that synchronous fire years were associated with regional drought and precipitation deficits. Wet conditions for 2&ndash;3 years prior to the event year were also significant, suggesting that increased moisture promoted growth of understory fine fuels to support more extensive fires across the study area. Although fire frequencies increased during the 20th century, fire&ndash;climate relationships weakened, suggesting increased human-caused ignitions may override regional climate drivers. Our dataset presents a continuous record of frequent surface fires over the past 400 years, providing a valuable opportunity to compare dendrochronology-based reconstructions with satellite and documentary records. &nbsp;</p

Indigenous fire management and cross-scale fire-climate relationships in the Southwest United States from 1500 to 1900 CE

Prior research suggests that Indigenous fire management buffers climate influences on wildfires, but it is unclear whether these benefits accrue across geographic scales. We use a network of 4824 fire-scarred trees in Southwest United States dry forests to analyze up to 400 years of fire-climate relationships at local, landscape, and regional scales for traditional territories of three different Indigenous cultures. Comparison of fire-year and prior climate conditions for periods of intensive cultural use and less-intensive use indicates that Indigenous fire management weakened fire-climate relationships at local and landscape scales. This effect did not scale up across the entire region because land use was spatially and temporally heterogeneous at that scale. Restoring or emulating Indigenous fire practices could buffer climate impacts at local scales but would need to be repeatedly implemented at broad scales for broader regional benefits. &nbsp;</p

The North American tree-ring fire-scar network

Fire regimes in North American forests are diverse and modern fire records are often too short to capture important patterns, trends, feedbacks, and drivers of variability. Tree-ring fire scars provide valuable perspectives on fire regimes, including centuries-long records of fire year, season, frequency, severity, and size. Here, we introduce the newly compiled North American tree-ring fire-scar network (NAFSN), which contains 2562 sites, >37,000 fire-scarred trees, and covers large parts of North America. We investigate the NAFSN in terms of geography, sample depth, vegetation, topography, climate, and human land use. Fire scars are found in most ecoregions, from boreal forests in northern Alaska and Canada to subtropical forests in southern Florida and Mexico. The network includes 91 tree species, but is dominated by gymnosperms in the genus Pinus. Fire scars are found from sea level to >4000-m elevation and across a range of topographic settings that vary by ecoregion. Multiple regions are densely sampled (e.g., >1000 fire-scarred trees), enabling new spatial analyses such as reconstructions of area burned. To demonstrate the potential of the network, we compared the climate space of the NAFSN to those of modern fires and forests; the NAFSN spans a climate space largely representative of the forested areas in North America, with notable gaps in warmer tropical climates. Modern fires are burning in similar climate spaces as historical fires, but disproportionately in warmer regions compared to the historical record, possibly related to under-sampling of warm subtropical forests or supporting observations of changing fire regimes. The historical influence of Indigenous and non-Indigenous human land use on fire regimes varies in space and time. A 20th century fire deficit associated with human activities is evident in many regions, yet fire regimes characterized by frequent surface fires are still active in some areas (e.g., Mexico and the southeastern United States). These analyses provide a foundation and framework for future studies using the hundreds of thousands of annually- to sub-annually-resolved tree-ring records of fire spanning centuries, which will further advance our understanding of the interactions among fire, climate, topography, vegetation, and humans across North America

Climate and Human Drivers of Forest Vulnerability in the US Southwest: Perspectives from Dendroecology

The ongoing drought in the US Southwest (SW) has led to particularly large and severe wildfires, tree die-off events, insect outbreaks, and increased forest stress levels. These disturbances underscore the vulnerabilities of SW dry conifer forests to climate change and past land-uses. Climate projections show a clear upward trend in regional temperatures, which will lead to accelerated heat-related stressors and disturbances in the coming decades. Already, more than 20% of the dry conifer forests of the SW have been severely impacted. This number is likely to grow, but we lack a clear picture of where, when, and to what degree other forest areas will be affected. Here, I apply dendroecological methods to evaluate patterns and processes that might determine greater or lesser vulnerability in dry conifer forests. Much of this work stems from critical concerns voiced by the Navajo Forestry Department (NFD). Long-term and representative data are necessary for the NFD, as they are responsible for closely managing over 250,000 hectares of forests and woodlands for the traditional products and ecosystem services that their forests provide for the Navajo people. The first study takes a multi-century perspective on changing fire regimes across Navajo forests, and places current forest structure and recent severe events in a long-term context. We found that surface fires were frequent across the landscape from at least the late-1500s until 1880. Navajo settlement of the area began to affect the fire regimes with added small fires in some areas beginning in 1700. By 1832, the rise of traditional pastoralist practices and transhumant migrations reduced fire activity in areas of greater use. Conditions changed following the establishment of the Navajo reservation in 1868, as livestock herds grew rapidly and initiated a near-synchronous and widespread collapse of fire regimes across the study area by 1880. The legacies of this change in land use are greater forest densities and higher fuel loads in some areas, raising the vulnerability of the forest to more severe fires. The second study assesses one of the most dramatic long-term consequences of recent high-severity fires in the SW, the rapid post-fire transition of dry conifer forest to oak-dominated shrubfields. To assess probable successional trajectories and interactions with climate change of recently converted forests, we reconstructed the age structures and fire regimes of some of the largest and oldest shrubfields in the Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico. We found that shrubfields are a resilient configuration to drought and fire, historically burning at the same rates and under similar climate as dry conifer forests. Dense shrubfields pose a significant challenge to conifer recruitment from competition effects, with our sites persisting for over 100 years in the absence of burning and through periods of favorable climate to conifers. Given future warming favoring oak over pine, and projected trends in fire activity and high-severity fire behavior, we expect much more forest area to convert to shrubfield, especially in the absence of restoration efforts to reduce crown fire potential.Finally, we evaluate landscape-scale variability in tree growth response to regional climate across the Navajo forest. Projections of climate-induced forest decline often omit upper-elevation and mesic sites because they are not represented in regional tree-ring chronology networks. We found that these stands had much lower response to 20th century droughts than mid to lower elevation stands, and that targeted tree-ring sites are consistently more correlated with regional climate. However, as temperature-driven atmospheric moisture demand has remained above average since ~1997 in the study area, the upper-elevation trees are now nearly as responsive to regional climate as lower elevation xeric sites, probably due to increased moisture limitations. Recent warming has thus synchronized tree growth to an unprecedented extent across this large landscape and regionally

A new digital field data collection system for dendrochronology

A wide variety of information or 'metadata' is required when undertaking dendrochronological sampling. Traditionally, researchers record observations and measurements on field notebooks and/or paper recording forms, and use digital cameras and hand-held GPS devices to capture images and record locations. In the lab, field notes are often manually entered into spreadsheets or personal databases, which are then sometimes linked to images and GPS waypoints. This process is both time consuming and prone to human and instrument error. Specialised hardware technology exists to marry these data sources, but costs can be prohibitive for small scale operations (>$2000 USD). Such systems often include proprietary software that is tailored to very specific needs and might require a high level of expertise to use. We report on the successful testing and deployment of a dendrochronological field data collection system utilising affordable off-the-shelf devices ($100-300 USD). The method builds upon established open source software that has been widely used in developing countries for public health projects as well as to assist in disaster recovery operations. It includes customisable forms for digital data entry in the field, and a marrying of accurate GPS location with geotagged photographs (with possible extensions to other measuring devices via Bluetooth) into structured data fields that are easy to learn and operate. Digital data collection is less prone to human error and efficiently captures a range of important metadata. In our experience, the hardware proved field worthy in terms of size, ruggedness, and dependability (e.g., battery life). The system integrates directly with the Tellervo software to both create forms and populate the database, providing end users with the ability to tailor the solution to their particular field data collection needs.University of Arizona; Malcolm H. Wiener Foundation; Climate Assessment of the Southwest at the University of Arizona; United States Environmental Protection Agency STAR Fellowship [F13F51318]First available online: 6 May 2016; 24 month embargoThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

burnr : Fire history analysis and graphics in R

We developed a new software package, burnr, for fire history analysis and plotting in the R statistical programming environment. It was developed for tree-ring fire-scar analysis, but is broadly applicable to other event analyses (e.g., avalanches, frost rings, or culturally modified trees). Our new package can read, write, and manipulate standard tree-ring fire history FHX files, produce fire-demography charts, calculate fire frequency and seasonality statistics, and run superposed epoch analysis (SEA). A key benefit of burnr is that it enables automation of analyses and plotting, especially for large data sets. The package also facilitates creative plotting, mapping, and analyses when combined with the thousands of packages available in R. In this paper, we describe the basic functionality of burnr and introduce users to fire history analyses in R.Central Oregon Fire Management Service (Deschutes and Ochoco National Forests); Central Oregon Fire Management Service (Crooked River National Grassland); Central Oregon Fire Management Service (Prineville District Bureau of Land Management); EPA STAR Fellowship; U.S. Geological Survey Western Mountains Initiative24 month embargo; published online: 2 March 2018This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

dfoliatR: An R package for detection and analysis of insect defoliation signals in tree rings

We present a new R package to provide dendroecologists with tools to infer, quantify, analyze, and visualize growth suppression events in tree rings. dfoliatR is based on the OUTBREAK program and builds on existing resources in the R computing environment and the well-used dp1R package. It is designed to aid research in the ecology of insect defoliation events and to reconstruct defoliator outbreak chronologies, but can be applied to other studies where host-non-host comparisons are useful. dfoliatR performs an indexing procedure to remove climatic signals in the host-tree series that are represented in the non-host chronology, or other annually-resolved climate series. It then infers defoliation events in individual trees based on user-specified thresholds. Site-level analyses identify outbreak events that synchronously affect user-defined numbers or proportions of involved host trees. Functions are provided for summary statistics and graphics of tree- and site-level series. We evaluated dfoliatR against OUTBREAK, using eight datasets including 222 host-trees, and found that dfoliatR improves on OUTBREAK with greater user control, identification of defoliation events, computing capacity, and both the statistical summary and graphical outputs. We provide two example data sets and script to enable users to gain familiarity with the package and its capabilities. The source code is available in the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) and on GitHub.Open access articleThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Convergence of evidence supports a Chuska Mountains origin for the Plaza Tree of Pueblo Bonito, Chaco Canyon

Brooks-English, NT ORCiD: 0000-0002-6936-8079© 2020 by the Society for American Archaeology. The iconic Plaza Tree of Pueblo Bonito is widely believed to have been a majestic pine standing in the west courtyard of the monumental great house during the peak of the Chaco Phenomenon (AD 850-1140). The ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) log was discovered in 1924, and since then, it has been included in birth and life narratives of Pueblo Bonito, although these ideas have not been rigorously tested. We evaluate three potential growth origins of the tree (JPB-99): Pueblo Bonito, Chaco Canyon, or a distant mountain range. Based on converging lines of evidence-documentary records, strontium isotopes (87Sr/86Sr), and tree-ring provenance testing-we present a new origin for the Plaza Tree. It did not grow in Pueblo Bonito or even nearby in Chaco Canyon. Rather, JPB-99 originated from the Chuska Mountains, over 50 km west of Chaco Canyon. The tree was likely carried to Pueblo Bonito sometime between AD 1100 and 1130, although why it was left in the west courtyard, what it meant, and how it might have been used remain mysteries. The origin of the Plaza Tree of Pueblo Bonito underscores deep cultural and material ties between the Chaco Canyon great houses and the Chuska landscape

A history of recurrent, low-severity fire without fire exclusion in southeastern pine savannas, USA

The reintroduction and maintenance of historical surface fire regimes are primary goals of ecological restoration across many open, pine-dominated ecosystems in North America. In the United States, most of these ecosystems experienced long periods of fire exclusion in the 20th century, leaving few locations to serve as reference sites for ecological conditions associated with a continuous history of recurrent, low-severity fire. Here, we present a tree-ring perspective of uninterrupted surface fire activity from three pine savanna sites in the Red Hills Region of northern Florida and southwestern Georgia, USA. Our sites include two old-growth stands of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris): the Wade Tract on Arcadia Plantation and the Larkin Tract on Millpond Plantation. We also sampled the largely second-growth mixed pine savannas of Tall Timbers Research Station. Documentary records for burning at these sites are limited to recent decades and are often incomplete, although regional land-use traditions and scattered historical records indicate frequent fire may have persisted through the 20th century to present day. Fire-scarred cross sections from externally-scarred stumps, dead trees, and live trees provided tree-ring evidence of frequent fires occurring from the beginning of our fire-scar record in the late 19th century onward. Both fire frequency and seasonality were relatively consistent throughout time and among sites. Biennial and annual fire intervals were the most common. Most fire scars occurred in the dormant and early-earlywood portions of the rings, indicating that these fires were human-set fires during the months of January to mid-April, before the main lightning-fire season. Our findings regarding post-settlement fire frequency are consistent with previous estimates of fire frequency during earlier centuries, resulting from lightning and Native American ignitions. We recommend that our sites be used as reference sites for restoration as they are among the relatively few areas in the United States with a continuous history of frequent low-severity fire without 20th century fire exclusion.24 month embargo; published 19 August 2020This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]