Truncation Error Estimates in Process Life Cycle Assessment Using Input‐Output Analysis

Process life cycle assessment (PLCA) is widely used to quantify environmental flows associated with the manufacturing of products and other processes. As PLCA always depends on defining a system boundary, its application involves truncation errors. Different methods of estimating truncation errors are proposed in the literature; most of these are based on artificially constructed system complete counterfactuals. In this article, we review the literature on truncation errors and their estimates and systematically explore factors that influence truncation error estimates. We classify estimation approaches, together with underlying factors influencing estimation results according to where in the estimation procedure they occur. By contrasting different PLCA truncation/error modeling frameworks using the same underlying input‐output (I‐O) data set and varying cut‐off criteria, we show that modeling choices can significantly influence estimates for PLCA truncation errors. In addition, we find that differences in I‐O and process inventory databases, such as missing service sector activities, can significantly affect estimates of PLCA truncation errors. Our results expose the challenges related to explicit statements on the magnitude of PLCA truncation errors. They also indicate that increasing the strictness of cut‐off criteria in PLCA has only limited influence on the resulting truncation errors. We conclude that applying an additional I‐O life cycle assessment or a path exchange hybrid life cycle assessment to identify where significant contributions are located in upstream layers could significantly reduce PLCA truncation errors.EC/FP7/603864/EU/High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes/HELIXDFG, SFB 1026, Sustainable Manufacturing - Globale Wertschöpfung nachhaltig gestalte

Road to glory or highway to hell? Global road access and climate change mitigation

Transportation infrastructure is considered a key factor for economic development and poverty alleviation. The United Nations have explicitly included the provision of transport infrastructure access, e.g. through all-season road access, in their Sustainable Development Goal agenda (SDGs, target 9.1). Yet, little is known about the number of people lacking access to roads worldwide, the costs of closing existing access gaps and the implications of additional roads for other sustainability concerns such as climate change mitigation (SDG-13). Here we quantify, for 250 countries and territories, the percentage of population without road access in 2 km. We find that infrastructure investments required to provide quasi-universal road access are about USD 3 trillion. We estimate that the associated cumulative CO2 emissions from construction work and additional traffic until the end of the century amount to roughly 16 Gt. Our geographically explicit global analysis provides a starting point for refined regional studies and for the quantification of further environmental and social implications of SDG-9.1

Teleconnected food supply shocks

The 2008–2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks

Primary motor cortex activation and lateralization in patients with tumors of the central region

AbstractHemispheric lateralization is a frequently encountered phenomenon of cortical function. It describes the functional specialization of a region on one side of the brain for a given task. It is well characterized in motor and sensory, as well as language systems and becomes more and more known for various cognitive domains. While in the adult healthy brain hemispheric lateralization is mostly set, pathological processes may lead to cortical reorganization. In these cases neuroplasticity of the corresponding region in the non-dominant hemisphere seems to play an important role. In a previous study we investigated language associated regions in right-handed patients with frontal and temporal tumors of the left hemisphere. We observed a marked change of language lateralization in these patients towards the non-dominant hemisphere as measured by functional MRI (Partovi et al., 2012).In the present study we evaluated activation and lateralization of cortical motor areas in patients with tumors of the central region. BOLD fMRI was performed during unilateral voluntary movements of the contralesional hand in 87 patients. Individual correlations of measured BOLD-signals with the model hemodynamic reference function were determined on a ROI basis in single subjects and compared to those of 16 healthy volunteers. In volunteers the strongest activation is usually found in the M1 hand representation contralateral to the movement, while a weaker homotopic co-activation is observed in ipsilateral M1 (Stippich et al., 2007a). In the patient group our results show significant changes of motor activations, ranging from a reduction of M1 lateralization to equalization of M1 activations or even inversion of M1 lateralization during contralesional movements. This study corroborates in a large patient group the idea that lesions affecting M1 may lead to functional reorganization of cortical motor systems and in particular equalize hemispheric lateralization. However, it is not yet clear whether these changes are only an epiphenomenon or indeed reflect an attempt of recovery of brain function

Development of a Scalable Fabrication Concept for Sustainable, Programmable Shape‐Morphing Metamaterials

Programmable materials are a novel development, in which specialized production processes are used to introduce a framework of information capabilities into the inner structure of materials. Since the design and fabrication of programmable materials are still challenging, this aims to introduce a design and fabrication concept to pave the way toward industrial application. Herein, complex shape morphing has been implemented in the sense that the shape changes in response to external conditions, following a predefined program. First, the feasibility of a fabrication concept for uniform metamaterials with auxetic behavior is presented. A material with a predetermined nonuniform inner structure that deforms to a symmetrical shape has been developed and fabricated according to this concept. More complex behavior can be implemented by facilitating optimization methods to find inner structures according to a target shape. Lastly, an optimized and producible design for asymmetrical shape morphing is described to demonstrate the applicability of the approach

Intra-individual diagnostic image quality and organ-specific-radiation dose comparison between spiral cCT with iterative image reconstruction and z-axis automated tube current modulation and sequential cCT

AbstractObjectivesTo prospectively evaluate image quality and organ-specific-radiation dose of spiral cranial CT (cCT) combined with automated tube current modulation (ATCM) and iterative image reconstruction (IR) in comparison to sequential tilted cCT reconstructed with filtered back projection (FBP) without ATCM.Methods31 patients with a previous performed tilted non-contrast enhanced sequential cCT aquisition on a 4-slice CT system with only FBP reconstruction and no ATCM were prospectively enrolled in this study for a clinical indicated cCT scan. All spiral cCT examinations were performed on a 3rd generation dual-source CT system using ATCM in z-axis direction. Images were reconstructed using both, FBP and IR (level 1–5). A Monte-Carlo-simulation-based analysis was used to compare organ-specific-radiation dose. Subjective image quality for various anatomic structures was evaluated using a 4-point Likert-scale and objective image quality was evaluated by comparing signal-to-noise ratios (SNR).ResultsSpiral cCT led to a significantly lower (p<0.05) organ-specific-radiation dose in all targets including eye lense. Subjective image quality of spiral cCT datasets with an IR reconstruction level 5 was rated significantly higher compared to the sequential cCT acquisitions (p<0.0001). Consecutive mean SNR was significantly higher in all spiral datasets (FBP, IR 1–5) when compared to sequential cCT with a mean SNR improvement of 44.77% (p<0.0001).ConclusionsSpiral cCT combined with ATCM and IR allows for significant-radiation dose reduction including a reduce eye lens organ-dose when compared to a tilted sequential cCT while improving subjective and objective image quality

Teleconnected food supply shocks

The 2008–2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks