Evaluating small area population estimates and projection for sub-council areas in Scotland

This thesis is a collaborative research project with the National Records of Scotland and seeks to provide a fresh assessment of small area population estimates, and the first evaluation of small area population projections in Scotland. Population estimates and projections are valuable tools for planners and policy makers, with small area population statistics becoming increasingly important as demand grows for more detailed data. From planning school place provision to adequate water services, there are many aspects of planning and policy making which depend on having knowledge of the population size and structure at a neighbourhood level. This research uses a mixed methods approach, evaluating historical estimates and projections using statistical techniques; as well as using qualitative analysis to examine how local users of these statistics engage with, and accommodate for, the potential for error inherent in these estimates and projections. This research focuses in particular on estimates produced by the Cohort Component method currently used in Scotland, comparing this approach to alternative methods such as those employed by other statistical agencies, and less data intensive, simple methods. A significant finding from this comparison is that methods favoured by other UK statistical agencies outperformed the Cohort Component method. Results show that both the Ratio Change method used in England and Wales, and the Average method, used in Northern Ireland, both produced the most accurate estimates. When exploring how these methods varied in accuracy across areas, results also found evidence of bias. The most striking finding from this evaluation was the relationship between estimation bias and deprivation, with population estimates in the most deprived areas, tending to be under-estimated and the most affluent areas over estimated. This was a finding which was present across all of the complex methods of population estimates that were included in this study, however the effect was strongest for the Cohort Component method. While these findings may suggest that Cohort Component method may not be the most appropriate for producing population estimates, it was the best performing method when evaluating population projections. Here, it was found that this method outperformed all the simple approaches included in this study. However, there is some evidence to support the use of these simpler methods in some circumstances, over short projection periods. While the simpler methods were less accurate than the Cohort Component method, all approaches included in this study met the threshold of 80% of projections within 10% of the true population, which the shelf life literature defines as a reliable projection. This suggests that, over short projection periods, the simple methods can be considered reliable and useful, despite marginally higher levels of error. These simple methods could therefore be recommended to local users who wish to produce their own projections. This desire from users for locally produced statistics was evident in this research. Participants felt that local knowledge, particularly regarding special populations, could improve the assumptions used in producing population statistics. Participants also felt that more could be done to provide greater context to the population change presented in the projections in order for them to be taken seriously by non-expert audiences. Taking these views into account, closer links between national and local bodies, is a key recommendation of this research when considering improving user experience

The war, refugees, and the future of Ukraine's population

This paper is part of a project that has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No. 834103). This research was also supported by the Economic and Social Research Council Centre for Population Change Connecting Generations research programme, grant number ES/W002116/1.This study analyses the effect of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 on the future of Ukraine's population. We conduct a series of population projections with different assumptions on the proportion of refugees that may return to Ukraine. Our projections show that if past demographic trends continue, Ukraine's population is projected to decline by one-sixth over the next two decades and become older. These trends are largely driven by past and current demographic developments: continued very low fertility and large-scale emigration at the turn of the century. With war casualties and a large portion of the Ukrainian population seeking safety abroad from the conflict, the country's population is projected to decline by one-third. The decline would be even larger among the working-age population and children. Russia's invasion has not only led to immense human and economic costs in Ukraine in the present but also carries long-term demographic repercussions.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Error in official age-specific population estimates over place and time

Population estimates for sub-national areas underpin resource targeting for public and private expenditure. We quantify the success of the Office for National Statistics Small Area Population Estimates (ONS SAPE) in England (2011) using census-based population estimates as a comparative gold standard. We model the accuracy (% absolute error) of the ONS SAPE for Lower Super Output areas according to place characteristics and broad age groups. We compare the modelled accuracy to similar small area population estimates developed by local planners in 1991 and also to simple methods (2011) that might be used with less investment in estimation. Our results show that the ONS SAPE is of comparable accuracy to locally conducted censuses that provided the most accurate results in 1991. We find no combination of area characteristic or age group in which simpler methods of population estimation (in 1991 or 2001) outperform the ONS SAPE. The ONS SAPE is least accurate for young adult ages and areas that are experiencing high unemployment or in-migration. For such areas and groups local censuses may be used to resolve disputes over population estimates and are where attention might be focussed in order to improve the accuracy of small area population estimates.</p

Understanding fertility trends in Britain: Do fertility intentions differ across England, Wales and Scotland?

This paper has three aims: Firstly, to review recent evidence collected within the vital registration system to identify how childbearing trends differ between Scotland, England and Wales; secondly, to use nationally representative survey data to identify how family size distributions changed during the period when the overall level of fertility diverged between the countries; and thirdly, to establish whether fertility intentions are different in the British nations and hence whether this could be an explanation for differences in behaviour. We find:• Fertility in Britain fell to an historically low level in 2020.• Since the late 1970s, Scotland has consistently recorded significantly lower levels of fertility than England and Wales.• The difference appears to be due to lower rates of childbearing among women in their thirties and forties in Scotland as compared to England.• Some, but not all of the difference can be attributed to higher fertility among foreignborn women in the UK. Fertility of UK-born women in Scotland is lower than UK-born women in England and Wales.• Survey data on fertility intentions show that there are no differences in intentions to have a first birth. However, Scottish (and Welsh) mothers are less likely to have a firm intention to have additional births.• Analysis of fertility by age, parity and duration since last birth is critical to understand differences in childbearing behaviour between Scotland and England and Wales. • Analyses using large census-linked longitudinal datasets such as the ONS Longitudinal Study and the Scottish Longitudinal Study are required

Estimating the 2011 total fertility rate for England &amp; Wales and Scotland using alternative data sources

It is important to estimate fertility rates as accurately as possible in order to make appropriate comparisons of fertility levels across time and space and to inform fertility projections. This paper compares estimates of the 2011 total fertility rate (TFR) for all, UK-born and non-UKborn women in England &amp; Wales and Scotland, obtained using several data sources. The three data sources we use are vital registration (VR) data, longitudinal studies (linked census and vital events data) and census household microdata samples from the respective countries.   Although estimates based on VR data are classed as official, the event and risk population information come from different sources. Surveys and census data do not suffer from this issue, but their analysis requires decisions regarding the selection of the sample and how to deal with exits and entries to the UK. We find:• TFR estimates from the census microdata tend to be closest to those from VR data, particularly for Scotland. For England &amp; Wales, the census estimates are lower than those from VR data, especially for non-UK-born women.• The longitudinal study estimates are the lowest among the three data sources for Scotland, while for England &amp; Wales they are lower or higher than the corresponding VR estimate with this generally depending on the precise estimation method used.• Overall, this study finds some small variation in the TFR estimates from these different sources, owing to their contrasting coverage, mode of collection and sample size.• The reasonable consistency of the census-linked data and the census household microdata with the VR estimates shows that they are an important source of information which allows the examination of subgroup differences in childbearing behaviour

TestEd Survey of Staff and Student Experiences and Perceptions of Novel Covid-19 Testing Platform

Survey of staff and students at the University of Edinburgh related to their participation in a routine, asymptomatic Covid-19 workplace testing pilot. 522 participants completed a pilot survey in April 2021 and 1,750 completed the main survey (November 2021). Surveys explored: the acceptability of regular PCR testing among students and staff, particularly involving an approach that was less invasive than nasopharyngeal swabbing; barriers and facilitators to participating in a regular university testing programme, including in the context of other testing methods being available; and whether participation in such a programme changed adherence to public health guidelines

Rare tumors: Opportunities and challenges from the Children’s Oncology Group perspective

While all childhood cancers are rare, tumors that are particularly infrequent or underrepresented within pediatrics are studied under the umbrella of the Children’s Oncology Group Rare Tumor committee, divided into the Retinoblastoma and Infrequent Tumor subcommittees. The Infrequent Tumor subcommittee has traditionally included an emphasis on globally rare tumors such as adrenocortical carcinoma, nasopharyngeal carcinoma, or those tumors that are rare in young children, despite being common in adolescents and young adults, such as colorectal carcinoma, thyroid carcinoma, and melanoma. Pleuropulmonary blastoma, gonadal stromal tumors, pancreatic tumors including pancreatoblastoma, gastrointestinal stromal tumor, nonmelanoma skin cancers, neuroendocrine tumors, and desmoplastic small round cell tumors, as well as other carcinomas are also included under the heading of the Children’s Oncology Group Rare Tumor committee. While substantial challenges exist in rare cancers, inclusion and global collaboration remain key priorities to ensure high quality research to advance care