1,069 research outputs found

    Genome-wide meta-analysis in alopecia areata resolves HLA associations and reveals two new susceptibility loci

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    Alopecia areata (AA) is a prevalent autoimmune disease with 10 known susceptibility loci. Here we perform the first meta-analysis of research on AA by combining data from two genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and replication with supplemented ImmunoChip data for a total of 3,253 cases and 7,543 controls. The strongest region of association is the major histocompatibility complex, where we fine-map four independent effects, all implicating human leukocyte antigen-DR as a key aetiologic driver. Outside the major histocompatibility complex, we identify two novel loci that exceed the threshold of statistical significance, containing ACOXL/BCL2L11(BIM) (2q13); GARP (LRRC32) (11q13.5), as well as a third nominally significant region SH2B3(LNK)/ATXN2 (12q24.12). Candidate susceptibility gene expression analysis in these regions demonstrates expression in relevant immune cells and the hair follicle. We integrate our results with data from seven other autoimmune diseases and provide insight into the alignment of AA within these disorders. Our findings uncover new molecular pathways disrupted in AA, including autophagy/apoptosis, transforming growth factor beta/Tregs and JAK kinase signalling, and support the causal role of aberrant immune processes in AA

    Shadow banking activity and entrusted loans in a DSGE model of China

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    This paper examines how the risky lending activities of the state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) affect the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in China with a shadow banking sector. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) macroeconomic model with two production sectors, where the SOEs have access to low cost funds from the commercial banks (also mainly state‐owned) and on‐lend to the private sector in the form of entrusted loans. The Bayesian estimation results show that higher restrictions on bank credit push SOEs to engage in more shadow banking in this form which dampens the effectiveness of contractionary monetary policy. Expansionary fiscal policy increases output, but crowds out private investment, which can further drain the financial market and exert a detrimental effect on the Chinese economy

    Sources of pro-cyclicality in east Asian financial systems

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    Procyclicality is a normal feature of economic systems, but financial sector weaknesses can exacerbate it sufficiently to pose a threat to macroeconomic and financial stability. These include shortcomings in bank risk management and governance, in supervision and in terms of dependence on volatile sources of funds. The paper tests econometrically for the importance of such features leading to pro-cyclicality in the financial systems of 11 East Asian countries. This analysis makes it possible to identify specific policy measures for East Asian countries that could limit the extent to which financial systems exacerbate pro-cyclicality

    Fiscal Multipliers and Public Debt Dynamics in Consolidations

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    The success of a consolidation in reducing the debt ratio depends crucially on the value of the multiplier, which measures the impact of consolidation on growth, and on the reaction of sovereign yields to such a consolidation. We present a theoretical framework that formalizes the re spo nse of the public debt ratio to fiscal consolidations in relation to the value of fiscal multipliers, the starting debt level and the cyclical elasticity of the budget balance. We also assess the role of markets confidence to fiscal consolidations under al ternative scenarios. We find that with high levels of public debt and sizeable fiscal multipliers , debt ratios are likely to increase in the short term in response to fiscal consolidations. Hence, the typical horizon for a consolidation during crises episo des to reduce the debt ratio is two - three years , although this horizon depends critically on the size and persistence of fiscal multipliers and the reaction of financial markets. Anyway, such undesired debt responses are mainly short - lived. This effect is very unlikely in non - crisis times, as it requires a number of conditions difficult to observe at the same time , especially high fiscal multipliers

    The New Keynesian business cycle achievements and challenges

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    The New-Keynesian (NK) business cycle model has presented itself as a potential “workhorse” model for business cycle analysis. This paper seeks to assess afresh the performance of the baseline NK model and its various extensions. The main theme of the paper is that although the dynamic NK literature has secured a robust defence to criticism arising, inter alia, on account of lack of microfoundations, it still has a long way to go in terms of providing a fully satisfactory model of the business cycle. In this regard, it is conjectured that explicitly accounting for the role of heterogeneity in business- cycle dynamics could lead towards a viable solution.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    Evaluation of a DSGE Model of Energy in the United Kingdom Using Stationary Data

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    I examine the impact of energy price shock (oil prices shock and gas prices shock) on the economic activities in the United Kingdom using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a New Keynesian Philips Curve. I decomposed the changes in output caused by all of the stationary structural shocks. I found that the fall in output during the financial crisis period is driven by domestic demand shock, energy prices shock and world demand shock. I found the energy prices shock’s contribution to fall in output is temporary. Such that, the UK can borrow against such a temporary fall. This estimated model can create additional input to the policymaker’s choice of models
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