Tempering and enabling ambition: how equity is considered in domestic processes preparing NDCs

The considerations of how Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to global climate action under the Paris Agreement are ambitious and fair, or equitable, is expected to guide countries’ decisions with regards to the ambition and priorities of those contributions. This article investigates the equity aspect of the NDCs of four cases (Canada, the EU, Kenya, and South Africa) utilizing a combination of document analysis and expert interviews. It interrogates both the NDC documents themselves and, uniquely, the role of international and domestic equity considerations within the domestic policy processes that led to the formulation of the NDCs. For this, 30 participants and close observers of these processes were interviewed. We find countervailing effects of equity on ambition, with an enabling, or ambition-enhancing, effect resulting from international equity, in that these four Parties show willingness to do more if others do, too. In contrast, tempering effect appears to result from domestic equity concerns, for example with regards to real, perceived, or anticipated adverse distributional impacts of climate action across regions, sectors, and/or societal strata. Political cultures differ across the four case studies, as do the key actors that influence domestic policies and the preparations of NDCs. This paper also demonstrates that research on equity in NDCs can benefit from expanding its scope from the contents of NDC submissions to also examine the underlying decision-making processes, to generate insights that can contribute to future NDCs being both equitable and ambitious

Observed photodetachment in parallel electric and magnetic fields

We investigate photodetachment from negative ions in a homogeneous 1.0-T magnetic field and a parallel electric field of approximately 10 V/cm. A theoretical model for detachment in combined fields is presented. Calculations show that a field of 10 V/cm or more should considerably diminish the Landau structure in the detachment cross section. The ions are produced and stored in a Penning ion trap and illuminated by a single-mode dye laser. We present preliminary results for detachment from S- showing qualitative agreement with the model. Future directions of the work are also discussed.Comment: Nine pages, five figures, minor revisions showing final publicatio

New Insights into White-Light Flare Emission from Radiative-Hydrodynamic Modeling of a Chromospheric Condensation

(abridged) The heating mechanism at high densities during M dwarf flares is poorly understood. Spectra of M dwarf flares in the optical and near-ultraviolet wavelength regimes have revealed three continuum components during the impulsive phase: 1) an energetically dominant blackbody component with a color temperature of T $\sim$ 10,000 K in the blue-optical, 2) a smaller amount of Balmer continuum emission in the near-ultraviolet at lambda $<$ 3646 Angstroms and 3) an apparent pseudo-continuum of blended high-order Balmer lines. These properties are not reproduced by models that employ a typical "solar-type" flare heating level in nonthermal electrons, and therefore our understanding of these spectra is limited to a phenomenological interpretation. We present a new 1D radiative-hydrodynamic model of an M dwarf flare from precipitating nonthermal electrons with a large energy flux of $10^{13}$ erg cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$. The simulation produces bright continuum emission from a dense, hot chromospheric condensation. For the first time, the observed color temperature and Balmer jump ratio are produced self-consistently in a radiative-hydrodynamic flare model. We find that a T $\sim$ 10,000 K blackbody-like continuum component and a small Balmer jump ratio result from optically thick Balmer and Paschen recombination radiation, and thus the properties of the flux spectrum are caused by blue light escaping over a larger physical depth range compared to red and near-ultraviolet light. To model the near-ultraviolet pseudo-continuum previously attributed to overlapping Balmer lines, we include the extra Balmer continuum opacity from Landau-Zener transitions that result from merged, high order energy levels of hydrogen in a dense, partially ionized atmosphere. This reveals a new diagnostic of ambient charge density in the densest regions of the atmosphere that are heated during dMe and solar flares.Comment: 50 pages, 2 tables, 13 figures. Accepted for publication in the Solar Physics Topical Issue, "Solar and Stellar Flares". Version 2 (June 22, 2015): updated to include comments by Guest Editor. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11207-015-0708-

No additional prognostic value of genetic information in the prediction of vascular events after cerebral ischemia of arterial origin

Background: Patients who have suffered from cerebral ischemia have a high risk of recurrent vascular events. Predictive models based on classical risk factors typically have limited prognostic value. Given that cerebral ischemia has a heritable component, genetic information might improve performance of these risk models. Our aim was to develop and compare two models: one containing traditional vascular risk factors, the other also including genetic information. Methods and Results: We studied 1020 patients with cerebral ischemia and genotyped them with the Illumina Immunochip. Median follow-up time was 6.5 years; the annual incidence of new ischemic events (primary outcome, n=198) was 3.0%. The prognostic model based on classical vascular risk factors had an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.61-0.69). When we added a genetic risk score based on prioritized SNPs from a genome-wide association study of ischemic stroke (using summary statistics from the METASTROKE study which included 12389 cases and 62004 controls), the AUC-ROC remained the same. Similar results were found for the secondary outcome ischemic stroke. Conclusions: We found no additional value of genetic information in a prognostic model for the risk of ischemic events in patients with cerebral ischemia of arterial origin. This is consistent with a complex, polygenic architecture, where many genes of weak effect likely act in concert to influence the heritable risk of an individual to develop (recurrent) vascular events. At present, genetic information cannot help clinicians to distinguish patients at high risk for recurrent vascular events

Oncoplastic Breast Consortium consensus conference on nipple-sparing mastectomy

Purpose Indications for nipple-sparing mastectomy (NSM) have broadened to include the risk reducing setting and locally advanced tumors, which resulted in a dramatic increase in the use of NSM. The Oncoplastic Breast Consortium consensus conference on NSM and immediate reconstruction was held to address a variety of questions in clinical practice and research based on published evidence and expert panel opinion. Methods The panel consisted of 44 breast surgeons from 14 countries across four continents with a background in gynecology, general or reconstructive surgery and a practice dedicated to breast cancer, as well as a patient advocate. Panelists presented evidence summaries relating to each topic for debate during the in-person consensus conference. The iterative process in question development, voting, and wording of the recommendations followed the modified Delphi methodology. Results Consensus recommendations were reached in 35, majority recommendations in 24, and no recommendations in the remaining 12 questions. The panel acknowledged the need for standardization of various aspects of NSM and immediate reconstruction. It endorsed several oncological contraindications to the preservation of the skin and nipple. Furthermore, it recommended inclusion of patients in prospective registries and routine assessment of patient-reported outcomes. Considerable heterogeneity in breast reconstruction practice became obvious during the conference. Conclusions In case of conflicting or missing evidence to guide treatment, the consensus conference revealed substantial disagreement in expert panel opinion, which, among others, supports the need for a randomized trial to evaluate the safest and most efficacious reconstruction techniques

Detectable clonal mosaicism and its relationship to aging and cancer

In an analysis of 31,717 cancer cases and 26,136 cancer-free controls from 13 genome-wide association studies, we observed large chromosomal abnormalities in a subset of clones in DNA obtained from blood or buccal samples. We observed mosaic abnormalities, either aneuploidy or copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity, of >2 Mb in size in autosomes of 517 individuals (0.89%), with abnormal cell proportions of between 7% and 95%. In cancer-free individuals, frequency increased with age, from 0.23% under 50 years to 1.91% between 75 and 79 years (P = 4.8 × 10(-8)). Mosaic abnormalities were more frequent in individuals with solid tumors (0.97% versus 0.74% in cancer-free individuals; odds ratio (OR) = 1.25; P = 0.016), with stronger association with cases who had DNA collected before diagnosis or treatment (OR = 1.45; P = 0.0005). Detectable mosaicism was also more common in individuals for whom DNA was collected at least 1 year before diagnosis with leukemia compared to cancer-free individuals (OR = 35.4; P = 3.8 × 10(-11)). These findings underscore the time-dependent nature of somatic events in the etiology of cancer and potentially other late-onset diseases

A universal power-law prescription for variability from synthetic images of black hole accretion flows

Instrumentatio