Landscape suitability in Botswana for the conservation of its six large African carnivores

Wide-ranging large carnivores often range beyond the boundaries of protected areas into human-dominated areas. Mapping out potentially suitable habitats on a country-wide scale and identifying areas with potentially high levels of threats to large carnivore survival is necessary to develop national conservation action plans. We used a novel approach to map and identify these areas in Botswana for its large carnivore guild consisting of lion (Panthera leo), leopard (Panthera pardus), spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta), brown hyaena (Hyaena brunnea), cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) and African wild dog (Lycaon pictus). The habitat suitability for large carnivores depends primarily on prey availability, interspecific competition, and conflict with humans. Prey availability is most likely the strongest natural determinant. We used the distribution of biomass of typical wild ungulate species occurring in Botswana which is preyed upon by the six large carnivores to evaluate the potential suitability of the different management zones in the country to sustain large carnivore populations. In areas where a high biomass of large prey species occurred, we assumed interspecific competition between dominant and subordinated competitors to be high. This reduced the suitability of these areas for conservation of subordinate competitors, and vice versa. We used the percentage of prey biomass of the total prey and livestock biomass to identify areas with potentially high levels of conflict in agricultural areas. High to medium biomass of large prey was mostly confined to conservation zones, while small prey biomass was more evenly spread across large parts of the country. This necessitates different conservation strategies for carnivores with a preference for large prey, and those that can persist in the agricultural areas. To ensure connectivity between populations inside Botswana and also with its neighbours, a number of critical areas for priority management actions exist in the agricultural zones.Botswana Wildlife Management Association and Tau Consultants.http://www.plosone.orgam201

Key factors and related principles in the conservation of large African carnivores

1. Large carnivores are a critical component of Africa’s biodiversity, and their conservation requires a clear understanding of interactions between large carnivores and people. 2. By reviewing existing literature, we identify 14 key factors that influence large African carnivore conservation, including ecological (biodiversity conservation, interspecific competition, ranging behaviour, ecological resilience, prey availability, livestock predation, disease and population viability), socio-economic (people’s attitudes and behaviours and human costs and benefits of coexistence with large carnivores) and political (conservation policy development and implementation, conservation strategies and land use zoning) factors. 3. We present these key factors in a model illustrating the levels of impact on large African carnivore conservation. 4. We identify the key principle that underpins each factor and its implications for both large carnivore conservation and human–carnivore conflict. 5. We provide a synthesis of the key factors and related principles in large African carnivore conservation and highlight the importance of the site-specific and species-specific context in conservation policy and implementation, formulated through an interdisciplinary and adaptive approach.This manuscript was partly funded by the Botswana Wildlife Management Association, Maun, Botswana, and made possible by the Department of Wildlife and National Parks, Ministry of Environment, Wildlife and Tourism, Gaborone, Botswana.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1365-2907hb2016Centre for Wildlife Managemen

Wildlife abundance and diversity as indicators of tourism potential in Northern Botswana

Wildlife tourism can provide economic incentives for conservation. Due to the abundance of wildlife and the presence of charismatic species some areas are better suited to wildlife tourism. Our first objective was to develop criteria based on wildlife abundance and diversity to evaluate tourism potential in the Northern Conservation Zone of Botswana. Secondly we wanted to quantify and compare tourism experiences in areas with high and low tourism potential. We used aerial survey data to estimate wildlife biomass and diversity to determine tourism potential, while data from ground surveys quantified the tourist experience. Areas used for High Paying Low Volume tourism had significantly higher mean wildlife biomass and wildlife diversity than the areas avoided for this type of tourism. Only 22% of the Northern Conservation Zone has intermediate to high tourism potential. The areas with high tourism potential, as determined from the aerial survey data, provided tourists with significantly better wildlife sightings (ground surveys) than the low tourism potential areas. Even Low Paying tourism may not be economically viable in concessions that lack areas with intermediate to high tourism potential. The largest part of the Northern Conservation Zone has low tourism potential, but low tourism potential is not equal to low conservation value. Alternative conservation strategies should be developed to complement the economic incentive provided by wildlife-based tourism in Botswana.S1 File. Data_hplvtourismareas_northern_Botswana.xlsx.http://www.plosone.orgam201

Simplified large African carnivore density estimators from track indices

BACKGROUND: The range, population size and trend of large carnivores are important parameters to assess their status globally and to plan conservation strategies. One can use linear models to assess population size and trends of large carnivores from track-based surveys on suitable substrates. The conventional approach of a linear model with intercept may not intercept at zero, but may fit the data better than linear model through the origin. We assess whether a linear regression through the origin is more appropriate than a linear regression with intercept to model large African carnivore densities and track indices. METHODS : We did simple linear regression with intercept analysis and simple linear regression through the origin and used the confidence interval for ß in the linear model y = αx + ß, Standard Error of Estimate, Mean Squares Residual and Akaike Information Criteria to evaluate the models. RESULTS : The Lion on Clay and Low Density on Sand models with intercept were not significant (P > 0.05). The other four models with intercept and the six models thorough origin were all significant (P < 0.05). The models using linear regression with intercept all included zero in the confidence interval for ß and the null hypothesis that ß = 0 could not be rejected. All models showed that the linear model through the origin provided a better fit than the linear model with intercept, as indicated by the Standard Error of Estimate and Mean Square Residuals. Akaike Information Criteria showed that linear models through the origin were better and that none of the linear models with intercept had substantial support. DISCUSSION : Our results showed that linear regression through the origin is justified over the more typical linear regression with intercept for all models we tested. A general model can be used to estimate large carnivore densities from track densities across species and study areas. The formula observed track density = 3.26 × carnivore density can be used to estimate densities of large African carnivores using track counts on sandy substrates in areas where carnivore densities are 0.27 carnivores/100 km2 or higher. To improve the current models, we need independent data to validate the models and data to test for non-linear relationship between track indices and true density at low densities.Christiaan Winterbach was funded by the National Research Foundation, South Africa, Grant No: 95399.https://peerj.comam2017Centre for Wildlife Managemen

A 250-year isotopic proxy rainfall record from southern Botswana

Climate records along aridity gradients where manifestations of climate change are most profound are important for testing climate models. The Kalahari Transect spans such a gradient, but instrumental records of climate parameters are limited in the sparsely populated region. We analysed the δ13C and δ18O record from a Vachellia erioloba (E.Mey) tree from the southern Kalahari Desert in Botswana to explore its potential as a climate proxy archive. Radiocarbon dates show that the record spans the period 1758-2013 CE. Both the δ13C and δ18O records correlate with local rainfall. The isotope proxies show a weak positive correlation with sea-surface temperature reconstruction from the southwestern Indian Ocean, and a stronger correlation with the El Niño Southern Oscillation index. This appears to contradict previous evidence that higher sea-surface temperatures are associated with reduced summer rainfall over the southern African interior. Instead of eastward shifts in the temperate tropical trough synoptic system during elevated southwestern Indian Ocean temperature anomalies, the evidence supports a westwards shift. The result demonstrates the potential of Vachellia erioloba as a climate proxy archive that may yield past climate variability from the arid regions of southern Africa.The National Research Foundation (NRF) of South Africa under the Research Grant for Unrated Researchers number CSUR13092647960. AMS radiocarbon analyses were supported by the Romanian Ministry of Research and Innovation CNCS-UEFISCDI under grant PN-III-P4-ID-PCE-2016-0776, Nr. 90/2017.http://chem.ubbcluj.ro/~studiachemiaam2019Mammal Research Institut

Aging traits and sustainable trophy hunting of African lions

Trophy hunting plays a significant role in wildlife conservation in some contexts in various parts of the world. Yet excessive hunting is contributing to species declines, especially for large carnivores. Simulation models suggest that sustainable hunting of African lions may be achieved by restricting offtakes to males old enough to have reared a cohort of offspring. We tested and expanded criteria for an age-based approach for sustainably regulating lion hunting. Using photos of 228 known-age males from ten sites across Africa, we measured change in ten phenotypic traits with age and found four age classes with distinct characteristics: 1-2.9 years, 3-4.9 years, 5-6.9 years, and ≥7 years. We tested the aging accuracy of professional hunters and inexperienced observers before and after training on aging. Before training, hunters accurately aged more lion photos (63%) than inexperienced observers (48%); after training, both groups improved (67-69%). Hunters overestimated 22% of lions <5 years as 5-6.9 years (unsustainable) but only 4% of lions <5 years as ≥7 years (sustainable). Due to the lower aging error for males ≥7 years, we recommend 7 years as a practical minimum age for hunting male lions. Results indicate that age-based hunting is feasible for sustainably managing threatened and economically significant species such as the lion, but must be guided by rigorous training, strict monitoring of compliance and error, and conservative quotas. Our study furthermore demonstrates methods for identifying traits to age individuals, information that is critical for estimating demographic parameters underlying management and conservation of age-structured species.http://www.elsevier.com/ locate/biocon2017-09-30hb2016Centre for Wildlife ManagementMammal Research InstituteZoology and Entomolog

The bii4africa dataset of faunal and floral population intactness estimates across Africa’s major land uses

Sub-Saharan Africa is under-represented in global biodiversity datasets, particularly regarding the impact of land use on species’ population abundances. Drawing on recent advances in expert elicitation to ensure data consistency, 200 experts were convened using a modified-Delphi process to estimate ‘intactness scores’: the remaining proportion of an ‘intact’ reference population of a species group in a particular land use, on a scale from 0 (no remaining individuals) to 1 (same abundance as the reference) and, in rare cases, to 2 (populations that thrive in human-modified landscapes). The resulting bii4africa dataset contains intactness scores representing terrestrial vertebrates (tetrapods: ±5,400 amphibians, reptiles, birds, mammals) and vascular plants (±45,000 forbs, graminoids, trees, shrubs) in sub-Saharan Africa across the region’s major land uses (urban, cropland, rangeland, plantation, protected, etc.) and intensities (e.g., large-scale vs smallholder cropland). This dataset was co-produced as part of the Biodiversity Intactness Index for Africa Project. Additional uses include assessing ecosystem condition; rectifying geographic/ taxonomic biases in global biodiversity indicators and maps; and informing the Red List of Ecosystems

Demographic consequences of habitat loss and crowding in large carnivores : a natural experiment

Habitat loss is one of largest threats to the persistence of large carnivore populations. However, because most large carnivores are long-lived, cryptic and wide-ranging, few studies examine the demographic consequences of habitat loss, and the resultant crowding that ensues, on these species. We used long-term data to examine the demographic responses of an African lion (Panthera leo) population to flooding-induced habitat loss in a seasonal wetland, the Okavango Delta, during a transition from low to high annual flooding patterns. We found that intraspecific competition reduced cub survival and that this effect was exacerbated by habitat loss and consequent crowding. The proportion of cubs recorded in the population also declined as crowding increased, and both the survival of cubs and proportion of cubs recorded declined as prey abundance decreased. Apparent sub-adult survival declined with increasing pride size, but this likely reflects emigration rather than mortality. Adult survival remained relatively constant throughout the study period, a population response which is important in buffering populations against short-term fluctuations in ecological conditions. As many large carnivore populations face future habitat loss, it is important that we understand the demographic consequences of habitat loss in order to better mitigate its effects in the future.Safari South (Pty) Ltd.; Rann Safaris (Pty) Ltd. and National Research Foundation.https://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/aje2021-09-14hj2021Mammal Research Institut

Standardised residuals for large prey biomass (LSU/100 km²) categories per Management Zone.

<p>Standardised residuals for large prey biomass (LSU/100 km²) categories per Management Zone.</p

Percentage small prey biomass.

<p>Map of the distribution of the percentage small prey biomass across the Conservation - and Agricultural Zones. The percentage was calculated from the total available biomass of small prey and small livestock consisting of sheep (<i>Ovis</i> spp.) and goats (<i>Capra hircus</i>).</p