Designing minimal effective normative systems with the help of lightweight formal methods

Normative systems (i.e., a set of rules) are an important approach to achieving effective coordination among (often an arbitrary number of) agents in multiagent systems. A normative system should be effective in ensuring the satisfaction of a desirable system property, and minimal (i.e., not containing norms that unnecessarily over-constrain the behaviors of agents). Designing or even automatically synthesizing minimal effective normative systems is highly non-trivial. Previous attempts on synthesizing such systems through simulations often fail to generate normative systems which are both minimal and effective. In this work, we propose a framework that facilitates designing of minimal effective normative systems using lightweight formal methods. Given a minimal effective normative system which coordinates many agents must be minimal and effective for a small number of agents, we start with automatically synthesizing one such system with a few agents. We then increase the number of agents so as to check whether the same design remains minimal and effective. If it is, we manually establish an induction proof so as to lift the design to an arbitrary number of agents

On the application of rainfall projections from a convection-permitting climate model to lumped catchment models

Climate change is predicted to increase rainfall intensity in tropical regions. Convection permitting (CP) climate models have been developed to address deficiencies in conventional climate models that use parameterised convection. However, to date, precipitation projections from CP climate models have not been used in conjunction with hydrological models to explore potential impacts of explicit modelling of convective rainfall on river flows in the tropics. Here we apply the outputs of a continental scale CP climate model as inputs to lumped rainfall-runoff models in Africa for the first time. Applied to five catchments in the Lake Victoria Basin, we show that the CP climate model produces greater river flows than an equivalent model using parameterised convection in both the current and future (c. 2100) climate. However, the location of the catchments near to Lake Victoria results in limited changes in extreme rainfall and river flows relative to changes in mean rainfall and river flows. Application of CP model rainfall data from an area where rainfall extremes change more than the change in mean rainfall to the rainfall-runoff model does not result in significant changes in river flows. Instead, this is shown to be a result of the rainfall-runoff model structure and parameterisation, which we posit is due to large-scale storage in the catchments associated with wetland cover, that buffers the impact of rainfall extremes. Based on an assessment of hydrological attributes (wetland coverage, water table depth, topography, precipitation, evapotranspiration and river flow) using global-scale datasets for the catchments in this research, this buffering may be extensive across humid regions. Application of CP climate model data to lumped catchment models in these areas are unlikely to result in significant increases in extreme river flows relative to increases in mean flows

Home bitter home? Gender, living arrangements, and the exclusion from homeownership among older Europeans

Abstract Homeownership is the most important asset among the elderly in Europe, but very little is known about gender and living arrangement differences in this domain. This paper aims at exploring patterns of exclusion from homeownership among middle-aged and older Europeans from a gender perspective, and with a special focus on their household composition. The analysis is based on the fourth wave of the “Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe” and includes a sub-sample of about 56,000 individuals aged 50 or over, living in 16 European countries. We estimated a set of multinomial logit models to examine the probability of being either tenant or rent-free occupiers versus homeowners. Our findings show that women are generally more likely to be excluded from homeownership than men. Nevertheless, a closer look suggests that the gender gap in homeownership is essentially generated by compositional differences between men and women, with the most relevant factor being household type. Older women are almost as twice as likely as men to live alone, which is associated—other things being equal—with a particular low likelihood to be homeowners virtually in every European country

The Necessity of Self-Employment Towards Retirement: Evidence from Labor Market Dynamics and Search Requirements for Unemployment Benefits

Hervorming Sociale Regelgevin

To Own or Not to Own? Household Portfolios, Demographics and Institutions in a Cross-National Perspective

Using harmonized wealth data and a novel decomposition approach, we show that cohort effects exist in the income profiles of asset and debt portfolios for a sample of European countries, the U.S. and Canada. We find that younger households' participation decisions in assets are more responsive to income than older households. Family structure plays a significant role in explaining cross-country differences for both cohorts. Examining institutional differences, we find that in more financially developed and economically open countries, households are less likely to own housing but more likely to be in debt. Typical mortgage characteristics and mathematical literacy are also correlated with debt participation across countries. These findings have important implications for policy setting during times of financial unease for the young, as well as for the future in helping secure adequate income for the elderly. Our results show that there is scope for policies which promote asset participation for young households and debt participation, where there is a need for consumpation smoothing, for older households

Work and Well-Being of Informal Caregivers in Europe

Informal caregivers provide valuable services to elderly persons with long-term care needs, but the consequences of caregiving on caregivers are not yet fully understood. This paper illustrates the interrelation between caregiving and caregivers' labour force participation, cognitive ability, and health in a simple theoretical model, and estimates the effects of caregiving using panel data from 13 European countries, which allows to analyze the effect of institutions on caregivers' outcomes. The results show that caregiving severely and signicantly reduces caregivers' probability of being employed, but only in countries with few formal care alternatives. Furthermore, caregivers in all countries suffer from worse mental health when caregiving is prompted by poor parental health. The results for the effects of caregiving on physical health and cognitive ability are mixed.Informelle Pflegerinnen und Pfleger leisten einen wertvollen Beitrag zu der Pflege älterer Menschen. Welche Folgen die Erbringung von Pflege auf die pflegende Person hat, ist jedoch noch nicht vollständig bekannt. Diese Studie verdeutlicht den Zusammenhang zwischen Pflegeerbringung, Arbeit, kognitiven Fähigkeiten und Gesundheit in einem theoretischen Modell und schätzt die Auswirkung von Pflegeerbringung anhand von Längsschnittdaten aus 13 europäischen Ländern. Dabei wird insbesondere der Einfluss institutioneller Faktoren auf die Auswirkungen von Pflegeerbringung analysiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Pflegeerbringung die Erwerbstätigkeit in Ländern mit einem geringeren professionellen Pflegeangebot stark reduziert. Dagegen leiden in allen Ländern pflegende Personen häufiger an depressiven Symptomen. Die Ergebnisse für kognitive Fähigkeiten und Gesundheit sind gemischt