DVA for Assets

The effect of self-default on the valuation of liabilities and derivatives (DVA) has been widely discussed but the effect on assets has not received similar attention. Any asset whose value depends on the status, or existence, of the firm will have a DVA. We extend (Burgard and Kjaer 2011) to provide a hedging strategy for such assets and provide an in-depth example from the balance sheet (Goodwill). We calibrate our model to seven US banks over the crisis period of mid-2007 to 2011. This suggests that their reported profits would have changed significantly if DVA on assets, as well as liabilities, was included - unless the DVA was hedged.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figure

The global epidemiology of syphilis in the past century - a systematic review based on antenatal syphilis prevalence

Author Summary: Syphilis rates have varied tremendously between different populations around the world. We conducted a systematic review of syphilis prevalence in pregnant women in 13 populations with available data for the last 100 years. Our findings were that in most populations syphilis prevalence dropped to under 1% before 1960. In the 2 populations from sub Saharan Africa, the syphilis prevalence remained around 6% until 50 years after the introduction of penicillin. Other systematic reviews were utilized to provide syphilis prevalence estimates for all countries with available data for the periods 1990-1999 and 2008. We assessed if there was a correlation between national syphilis prevalence in these periods and five explanatory factors. Only residence in sub-Saharan Africa was associated with syphilis prevalence in both time periods. These findings, considered in conjunction with other types of evidence we review, such as the strong correlations at population level between syphilis prevalence and those of Herpes Simplex Virus-2 prevalence and HIV prevalence, suggest that common risk factors may underpin the spread of all three of these sexually transmitted diseases. Establishing what these factors are is of great importance to improve the health of highly affected populations such as those in sub-Saharan Africa

What underpins the decline in syphilis in Southern and Eastern Africa? An exploratory ecological analysis.

BACKGROUND: AIDS mortality played an important role in the decline in syphilis prevalence in the USA, but its effect on the dramatic reduction in syphilis prevalence in Southern and Eastern Africa has not been explored. In this ecological study, we investigated the extent to which the relationship between syphilis and HIV prevalence at a population level varied between the early and late periods of the HIV epidemic. METHODS: We performed linear regression analysis to measure the association between the national prevalence of syphilis and the peak-HIV prevalence in the early and late phases of the HIV epidemic in 11 countries of Southern and Eastern Africa. RESULTS: Our analysis showed a strong positive association between peak-HIV prevalence and syphilis prevalence early in the HIV epidemic (R(2)=0.59; p=0.006). Although only of borderline statistical significance, this linear relationship between HIV prevalence and syphilis prevalence switched to a negative direction late in the HIV epidemic (R(2)=0.32; p=0.07). CONCLUSIONS: AIDS mortality may have played an important role in the decline in syphilis in this region. Consequently, with AIDS deaths declining in Sub-Saharan Africa, vigilant surveillance of syphilis prevalence will be necessary to detect a potential re-emergence, as has occurred in high-income countries, and to render a timely public health response

Male circumcision and sexual risk behaviors may contribute to considerable ethnic disparities in HIV prevalence in Kenya: an ecological analysis

BACKGROUND: HIV prevalence varies between 0.8 and 20.2% in Kenya's various ethnic groups. The reasons underlying these variations have not been evaluated before. METHODS: We used data from seven national surveys spanning the period 1989 to 2008 to compare the prevalence of a range of risk factors in Kenya's ethnic groups. Spearman's and linear regression were used to assess the relationship between HIV prevalence and each variable by ethnic group. RESULTS: The ethnic groups exhibited significant differences in a number of HIV related risk factors. Although the highest HIV prevalence group (the Luo) had the highest rates of HIV testing (Men 2008 survey: 56.8%, 95% CI 51.0-62.5%) and condom usage at last sex (Men 2008∶28.6%, 95% CI 19.6-37.6%), they had the lowest prevalence of circumcision (20.9%, 95% CI 15.9-26.0) the highest prevalence of sex with a non-married, non-cohabiting partner (Men: 40.2%, 95% CI 33.2-47.1%) and pre-marital sex (Men 2008∶73.9%, 95% CI 67.5-80.3%) and the youngest mean age of debut for women (1989 Survey: 15.7 years old, 95% CI 15.2-16.2). At a provincial level there was an association between the prevalence of HIV and male concurrency (Spearman's rho = 0.79, P = 0.04). Ethnic groups with higher HIV prevalence were more likely to report condom use (Men 2008 survey: R2 = 0.62, P = 0.01) and having been for HIV testing (Men 2008 survey: R2 = 0.47, P = 0.04). CONCLUSION: In addition to differences in male circumcision prevalence, variation in sexual behavior may contribute to the large variations in HIV prevalence in Kenya's ethnic groups. To complement the prevention benefits of the medical male circumcision roll-out in several parts of Kenya, interventions to reduce risky sexual behavior should continue to be promoted

The astrobiology primer: An outline of general knowledge - Version 1, 2006

Peer reviewe