How OECD policies affected Latin America in the 1980s

The authors assess the effects of OECD monetary and fiscal policies on Latin America by means of simulation studies using the LBS/NIESR Global Econometric Model and a new empirical model of Latin America. The Latin American model pays special attention to the supply-side determination of natural rate of output and to the effects of asset accumulation. The Latin American model and its properties are presented by both empirical simulations and by means of a simple analytical representation. This model of Latin America is used in conjunction with the Global Econometric Model to study the macroeconomic interactions between Latin America and the rest of the world. The assumption in policy simulations is that G-3 exchange rates are forward-looking while Latin America pegs its currency to the U.S. dollar. It is postulated that Latin American fiscal policy adjustments target a baseline current account balance, in the face of external shocks. The simulation results reflect a number of important international links, which can be quantified as multiplier properties of the linked system of models. A permanent 5 percent contraction in the U.S. money supply induces a contraction of about the same order in Latin American GDP and capital stock. This is caused by higher U.S. interest rates and diminished Latin American competitiveness in third markets, reinforcing the fall in U.S. demand. Similarly, a combined monetary contraction in G-3 countries on a permanent footing - a contraction like the one in 1978-80 (U.S., 5.2 percent, German, 11.9 percent, and Japanese, 1.7 percent) hurts Latin America. Latin American GDP remains depressed by 4 percent and capital stock by 5 percent even after 10 years. The effects of negative income and interest rates emanating from G-3 countries are mutually reinforcing. U.S. fiscal expansion equal to 1 percent of baseline GDP, sustained over five years, transmits negatively to Latin America, where GDP falls 0.6 percent in the short run and remains depressed by 0.3 percent even after 10 years. The negative effects of higher interest rates and diminished competitiveness dominate the positive effects (which are short-lived) of expanded U.S. demand for Latin American exports. Similarly, G-3 fiscal spending shocks, which aregradually built up over five years, then reversed the next two years, have a mild negative effect on Latin American GDP. The G-3 fiscal shocks administered were set to their actual magnitudes relative to baseline GDP, as observed in 1980-85 (U.S. expansion of 3.5 percent but contraction in German and Japanese spending of 4.4 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively). Latin American GDP is lower than baseline GDP by 0.5 percent when the shocks peak at the end of five years, but continues to remain depressed 0.3 percent by the end of 10 years. The simulated effects of G-3 monetary and fiscal policies, with the shocks constructed to reflect their actual sizes in the early 1980s, suggest that Latin America's adjustment problems in that period cannot be attributed to G-3 fiscal imbalances that arose because of failures of G-3 fiscal policy coordination. But concerted G-3 monetary contraction in response to the second oil shock imposed heavy costs on Latin America; without it, Latin American GDP would have been 5 percent higher in the 1980s.Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Macroeconomic Management,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Stabilization

Classification and analysis of emission-line galaxies using mean field independent component analysis

We present an analysis of the optical spectra of narrow emission-line galaxies, based on mean field independent component analysis (MFICA). Samples of galaxies were drawn from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and used to generate compact sets of `continuum' and `emission-line' component spectra. These components can be linearly combined to reconstruct the observed spectra of a wider sample of galaxies. Only 10 components - five continuum and five emission line - are required to produce accurate reconstructions of essentially all narrow emission-line galaxies; the median absolute deviations of the reconstructed emission-line fluxes, given the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the observed spectra, are 1.2-1.8 sigma for the strong lines. After applying the MFICA components to a large sample of SDSS galaxies we identify the regions of parameter space that correspond to pure star formation and pure active galactic nucleus (AGN) emission-line spectra, and produce high S/N reconstructions of these spectra. The physical properties of the pure star formation and pure AGN spectra are investigated by means of a series of photoionization models, exploiting the faint emission lines that can be measured in the reconstructions. We are able to recreate the emission line strengths of the most extreme AGN case by assuming the central engine illuminates a large number of individual clouds with radial distance and density distributions, f(r) ~ r^gamma and g(n) ~ n^beta, respectively. The best fit is obtained with gamma = -0.75 and beta = -1.4. From the reconstructed star formation spectra we are able to estimate the starburst ages. These preliminary investigations serve to demonstrate the success of the MFICA-based technique in identifying distinct emission sources, and its potential as a tool for the detailed analysis of the physical properties of galaxies in large-scale surveys.Comment: MNRAS accepted. 29 pages, 24 figures, 3 table

Interpreting the Ionization Sequence in AGN Emission-Line Spectra

We investigate the physical cause of the great range in the ionization level seen in the spectra of narrow lined active galactic nuclei (AGN). Mean field independent component analysis identifies examples of individual SDSS galaxies whose spectra are not dominated by emission due to star formation (SF), which we designate as AGN. We assembled high S/N ratio composite spectra of a sequence of these AGN defined by the ionization level of their narrow-line regions (NLR), extending down to very low-ionization cases. We used a local optimally emitting cloud (LOC) model to fit emission-line ratios in this AGN sequence. These included the weak lines that can be measured only in the co-added spectra, providing consistency checks on strong line diagnostics. After integrating over a wide range of radii and densities our models indicate that the radial extent of the NLR is the major parameter in determining the position of high to moderate ionization AGN along our sequence, providing a physical interpretation for their systematic variation. Higher ionization AGN contain optimally emitting clouds that are more concentrated towards the central continuum source than in lower ionization AGN. Our LOC models indicate that for the objects that lie on our AGN sequence, the ionizing luminosity is anticorrelated with the NLR ionization level, and hence anticorrelated with the radial concentration and physical extent of the NLR. A possible interpretation that deserves further exploration is that the ionization sequence might be an age sequence where low ionization objects are older and have systematically cleared out their central regions by radiation pressure. We consider that our AGN sequence instead represents a mixing curve of SF and AGN spectra, but argue that while many galaxies do have this type of composite spectra, our AGN sequence appears to be a special set of objects with negligible SF excitation.Comment: 57 pages; 18 figures, accepted by MNRA

Interpreting the Ionization Sequence in Star-Forming Galaxy Emission-Line Spectra

High ionization star forming (SF) galaxies are easily identified with strong emission line techniques such as the BPT diagram, and form an obvious ionization sequence on such diagrams. We use a locally optimally emitting cloud model to fit emission line ratios that constrain the excitation mechanism, spectral energy distribution, abundances and physical conditions along the star-formation ionization sequence. Our analysis takes advantage of the identification of a sample of pure star-forming galaxies, to define the ionization sequence, via mean field independent component analysis. Previous work has suggested that the major parameter controlling the ionization level in SF galaxies is the metallicity. Here we show that the observed SF- sequence could alternatively be interpreted primarily as a sequence in the distribution of the ionizing flux incident on gas spread throughout a galaxy. Metallicity variations remain necessary to model the SF-sequence, however, our best models indicate that galaxies with the highest and lowest observed ionization levels (outside the range -0.37 < log [O III]/H\b{eta} < -0.09) require the variation of an additional physical parameter other than metallicity, which we determine to be the distribution of ionizing flux in the galaxy.Comment: 41 pages, 17 figures, 9 tables, accepted to MNRA

The nuclear spectrum of the radio galaxy NGC 5128 (Centaurus A)

We present near-infrared spectra of the nuclear disk in the nearby radio galaxy NGC 5128 (Centaurus A). On the basis of the observed strengths of the [S III] 0.9532um and [Fe II] 1.2567um lines, we classify NGC 5128 as a LINER. Modeling of the strengths of these and additional lines suggests that the nuclear region is powered by shocks rather than photoionization.Comment: 12 pages including 2 figures, accepted by ApJ Letter

Do primordial Lithium abundances imply there's no Dark Energy?

Explaining the well established observation that the expansion rate of the universe is apparently accelerating is one of the defining scientific problems of our age. Within the standard model of cosmology, the repulsive 'dark energy' supposedly responsible has no explanation at a fundamental level, despite many varied attempts. A further important dilemma in the standard model is the Lithium problem, which is the substantial mismatch between the theoretical prediction for 7-Li from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and the value that we observe today. This observation is one of the very few we have from along our past worldline as opposed to our past lightcone. By releasing the untested assumption that the universe is homogeneous on very large scales, both apparent acceleration and the Lithium problem can be easily accounted for as different aspects of cosmic inhomogeneity, without causing problems for other cosmological phenomena such as the cosmic microwave background. We illustrate this in the context of a void model.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures. v2: minor rearrangements in the text, comments and references expanded, results unchange

"Ordinary, the same as anywhere else": notes on the management of spoiled identity in 'marginal' middle class neighbourhoods

Urban sociologists are becoming increasingly interested in neighbourhood as a source of middle-class identity. Particular emphasis is currently being given to two types of middle-class neighbourhood; gentrified urban neighbourhoods of ‘distinction’ and inconspicuous ‘suburban landscapes of privilege’. However, there has been a dearth of work on ‘marginal’ middle-class neighbourhoods that are similarly ‘inconspicuous’ rather than distinctive, but less exclusive, thus containing sources of ‘spoiled identity’. This article draws on data gathered from two ‘marginal’ middleclass neighbourhoods that contained a particular source of ‘spoiled identity’: social renters. Urban sociological analyses of neighbour responses to these situations highlight a process of dis-identification with the maligned object, which exacerbates neighbour differences. Our analysis of data from the ‘marginal’ middle-class neighbourhoods suggests something entirely different and Goffmanesque. This entailed the management of spoiled identity, which emphasized similarities rather than differences between neighbours.</p

Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change

It has been argued that climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The extreme high temperatures of the summer of 2003 were associated with up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe. Previous studies have attributed the meteorological event to the human influence on climate, or examined the role of heat waves on human health. Here, for the first time, we explicitly quantify the role of human activity on climate and heat-related mortality in an event attribution framework, analysing both the Europe-wide temperature response in 2003, and localised responses over London and Paris. Using publicly-donated computing, we perform many thousands of climate simulations of a high-resolution regional climate model. This allows generation of a comprehensive statistical description of the 2003 event and the role of human influence within it, using the results as input to a health impact assessment model of human mortality. We find large-scale dynamical modes of atmospheric variability remain largely unchanged under anthropogenic climate change, and hence the direct thermodynamical response is mainly responsible for the increased mortality. In summer 2003, anthropogenic climate change increased the risk of heat-related mortality in Central Paris by ~70% and by ~20% in London, which experienced lower extreme heat. Out of the estimated ~315 and ~735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris. Such an ability to robustly attribute specific damages to anthropogenic drivers of increased extreme heat can inform societal responses to, and responsibilities for, climate change