The origin of grand minima in the sunspot cycle

One of the most striking aspects of the 11-year sunspot cycle is that there have been times in the past when some cycles went missing, a most well-known example of this being the Maunder minimum during 1645-1715. Analyses of cosmogenic isotopes (C14 and Be10) indicated that there were about 27 grand minima in the last 11,000 yr, implying that about 2.7% of the solar cycles had conditions appropriate for forcing the Sun into grand minima. We address the question how grand minima are produced and specifically calculate the frequency of occurrence of grand minima from a theoretical dynamo model. We assume that fluctuations in the poloidal field generation mechanism and the meridional circulation produce irregularities of sunspot cycles. Taking these fluctuations to be Gaussian and estimating the values of important parameters from the data of last 28 solar cycles, we show from our flux transport dynamo model that about 1-4% of the sunspot cycles may have conditions suitable for inducing grand minima.Comment: Accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter

Reply to comments of Dikpati et al

We present here our response to Dikpati et al.'s criticism of our recent solar dynamo model.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figure

Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model

Although systematic measurements of the solar polar magnetic field exist only from mid 1970s, other proxies can be used to infer the polar field at earlier times. The observational data indicate a strong correlation between the polar field at a sunspot minimum and the strength of the next cycle, although the strength of the cycle is not correlated well with the polar field produced at its end. This suggests that the Babcock Leighton mechanism of poloidal field generation from decaying sunspots involves randomness, whereas the other aspects of the dynamo process must be reasonably ordered and deterministic. Only if the magnetic diffusivity within the convection zone is assumed to be high, we can explain the correlation between the polar field at a minimum and the next cycle. We give several independent arguments that the diffusivity must be of this order. In a dynamo model with diffusivity like this, the poloidal field generated at the mid latitudes is advected toward the poles by the meridional circulation and simultaneously diffuses towards the tachocline, where the toroidal field for the next cycle is produced. To model actual solar cycles with a dynamo model having such high diffusivity, we have to feed the observational data of the poloidal field at the minimum into the theoretical model. We develop a method of doing this in a systematic way. Our model predicts that cycle 24 will be a very weak cycle. Hemispheric asymmetry of solar activity is also calculated with our model and compared with observational data.Comment: 17 pages, 18 figures, submitted to MNRA

Intraoperative Use of Epsilon Amino Caproic Acid and Tranexamic Acid in Surgeries Performed Under Cardiopulmonary Bypass: a Comparative Study To Assess Their Impact On Reopening Due To Postoperative Bleeding

BACKGROUND: Open heart surgeries under cardiopulmonary bypass are associated with excessive perioperative bleeding that often requires reoperation. Antifibrinolytics like epsilon aminocaproic acid and tranexamic acid are widely used to control bleeding. There are limited studies primarily showing the impact of these drugs on the incidence of reopening following open heart surgical procedures. The goal of this study was to compare incidence of reopening following open heart surgeries in patients who were administered either epsilon amino caproic acid or tranexamic acid for control of perioperative bleeding.METHODS: A prospective, randomized, controlled trial was performed among seventy-eight patients of either sex in the age group of 18 to 65 years scheduled for open heart surgeries under cardiopulmonary bypass. They were randomly allocated into three groups where group A (n=26) received epsilon aminocaproic acid, group B (n=26) received tranexamic acid and group C (control group, n=26) received intravenous 0.9% normal saline. Patients had similar anaesthetic protocols, and were monitored for twenty-four hours postoperatively to assess reopening rates because of excessive bleeding.RESULTS: Two patients in each group receiving either tranexamic acid or epsilon aminocaproic acid had excessive bleeding requiring reopening after surgery whereas three patients in the control group had undergone reopening for excessive bleeding (p>0.05).CONCLUSIONS: Epsilon aminocaproic acid and tranexamic acid exhibit similar and comparable effect to placebo on incidence of reopening for excessive bleeding following open heart surgeries under cardiopulmonary bypassKEYWORDS: Bleeding, CPB, CABG, antifibrinilytic

Patterns of primary beam non-redundancy in close-packed 21 cm array observations

Radio interferometer arrays such as HERA consist of many close-packed dishes arranged in a regular pattern, giving rise to a large number of `redundant' baselines with the same length and orientation. Since identical baselines should see an identical sky signal, this provides a way of finding a relative gain/bandpass calibration without needing an explicit sky model. In reality, there are many reasons why baselines will not be exactly identical, giving rise to a host of effects that spoil the redundancy of the array and induce spurious structure in the calibration solutions if not accounted for. In this paper, we perform a wide range of simulations for a small HERA-like array to understand how different types of non-redundancy manifest in the observed interferometric visibilities and their resulting frequency (delay-space) power spectra. We focus in particular on differences in the primary beam response between antennas, including variations in the main lobe, sidelobes, ellipticity, and orientation. We find that different types of non-redundancy impart characteristic patterns into the redundant gain solutions, which in turn introduce additional structure into the calibrated visibilities and therefore the delay spectra. We show that the most severe effects of primary beam non-redundancy are induced by the brightest sources passing through the beam, while diffuse emission has a lesser (but non-negligible) effect. We also find that redundant baseline groups with `outlier' antennas (where only one antenna deviates from perfect redundancy) sustain the largest gain errors, while even $\mathcal{O}(1)$ non-redundancies in the sidelobes seem to have a relatively minor impact in comparison.Comment: 19 pages, 14 figures, to be submitted in MNRA

The Waldmeier Effect in Sunspot Cycles

We discuss two aspects of the Waldmeier Effect, namely (1) the rise times of sunspot cycles are anti-correlated to their strengths (WE1) and (2) the rates of rise of the cycles are correlated to their strengths (WE2). From analysis of four different data sets we conclude that both WE1 and WE2 exist in all the data sets. We study these effects theoretically by introducing suitable stochastic fluctuations in our regular solar dynamo model.Comment: Magnetic Coupling between the Interior and Atmosphere of the Sun; Astrophysics and Space Science Proceeding

Role of Thermomechanical Treatments on Mechanical Prope-rties, Microstrucures and Corrosion Properties of Micro-alloyed Steels

The paper deals with the developments in HSLA in general and the effect of thermomechanical processing on mecha-nical properties and corrosion in particular. The effect of micro additions on the properties are also dealt with. It has been pointed out that there is tremendous potential for HSLA for ship building, offshore structures, auto-bodies and many other engineering applications

Quenching of Meridional Circulation in Flux Transport Dynamo Models

Guided by the recent observational result that the meridional circulation of the Sun becomes weaker at the time of the sunspot maximum, we have included a parametric quenching of the meridional circulation in solar dynamo models such that the meridional circulation becomes weaker when the magnetic field at the base of the convection zone is stronger. We find that a flux transport solar dynamo tends to become unstable on including this quenching of meridional circulation if the diffusivity in the convection zone is less than about 2 * 10^{11} cm^2/s. The quenching of alpha, however, has a stabilizing effect and it is possible to stabilize a dynamo with low diffusivity with sufficiently strong alpha-quenching. For dynamo models with high diffusivity, the quenching of meridional circulation does not produce a large effect and the dynamo remains stable. We present a solar-like solution from a dynamo model with diffusivity 2.8 * 10^{12} cm^2/s in which the quenching of meridional circulation makes the meridional circulation vary periodically with solar cycle as observed and does not have any other significant effect on the dynamo.Comment: Consistent with the published version. Solar Physics, in pres