Random regret minimization or random utility maximization: An exploratory analysis in the context of automobile fuel choice

Interest in alternative behavioural paradigms to random utility maximisation (RUM) has existed ever since the dominance of the RUM formulation. One alternative is known as random regret minimisation (RRM), which suggests that when choosing between alternatives, decision-makers aim to minimise anticipated regret. Although the idea of regret is not new, its incorporation into the same discrete choice framework of RUM is very recent. This paper is the first to apply the RRM-model framework to model choice among durable goods. Specifically, we estimate and compare RRM- and RUM-models in a stated choice context of choosing amongst petrol, diesel and hybrid fuelled vehicles (associated with specific levels of fuel efficiency and engine capacity). The RRM-model is found to achieve a marginally better fit (using a non-nested test of differences) than its equally parsimonious RUM-counterpart. As a second contribution, we derive a formulation for regret-based elasticities, and compare utility- and regret-based elasticities in the context of stated vehicle-type choices. We find that in the context of our choice-data, mean estimates of elasticities are different for many of the attributes and alternatives

Determining the probability of cyanobacterial blooms: the application of Bayesian networks in multiple lake systems

A Bayesian network model was developed to assess the combined influence of nutrient conditions and climate on the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms within lakes of diverse hydrology and nutrient supply. Physicochemical, biological, and meteorological observations were collated from 20 lakes located at different latitudes and characterized by a range of sizes and trophic states. Using these data, we built a Bayesian network to (1) analyze the sensitivity of cyanobacterial bloom development to different environmental factors and (2) determine the probability that cyanobacterial blooms would occur. Blooms were classified in three categories of hazard (low, moderate, and high) based on cell abundances. The most important factors determining cyanobacterial bloom occurrence were water temperature, nutrient availability, and the ratio of mixing depth to euphotic depth. The probability of cyanobacterial blooms was evaluated under different combinations of total phosphorus and water temperature. The Bayesian network was then applied to quantify the probability of blooms under a future climate warming scenario. The probability of the "high hazardous" category of cyanobacterial blooms increased 5% in response to either an increase in water temperature of 0.8°C (initial water temperature above 24°C) or an increase in total phosphorus from 0.01 mg/L to 0.02 mg/L. Mesotrophic lakes were particularly vulnerable to warming. Reducing nutrient concentrations counteracts the increased cyanobacterial risk associated with higher temperatures

Response Conversion for Improving Comparability of International Physical Activity Data

Background: Many questionnaires for measuring physical activity (PA) exist. This complicates the comparison of outcomes. Methods: In 8 European countries, PA was measured in random samples of 600 persons, using the IPAQ as a 'bridge' to historical sets of country-specific questions. We assume that a unidimensional scale of PA ability exists on which items and respondents can be placed, irrespective of country, culture, background factors, or measurement instrument. Response Conversion (RC) based on Item Response Theory (IRT) was used to estimate such a common PA scale, to compare PA levels between countries, and to create a conversion key. Comparisons were made with Eurobarometer (IPAQ) data. Results: Appropriateness of IRT was supported by the existence of a strong first dimension established by principal component analysis. The IRT analysis resulted in 1 common PA scale with a reasonable fit and face validity. However, evidence for cultural bias (Differential Item Functioning, DIF) was found in all IPAQ items. This result made actual comparison between countries difficult. Conclusions: Response Conversion can improve comparability in the field of PA. RC needs common items that are culturally unbiased. Wide-scale use of RC awaits measures that are more culturally invariant (such as international accelerometer data). © 2012 Human Kinetics, Inc

Healthcare utilization patterns for knee and hip osteoarthritis before and after changes in national health insurance coverage:A data linkage study from the Netherlands

Introduction: Medical guidelines aim to stimulate stepped care for knee and hip osteoarthritis, redirecting treatments from hospitals to primary care. In the Netherlands, this development was supported by changing health insurance coverage for physio/exercise therapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate healthcare utilization patterns before and after health changes in health insurance coverage. Method: We analyzed electronic health records and claims data from patients with osteoarthritis in the knee (N =32,091) and hip (N = 16,313). Changes between 2013 and 2019 in the proportion of patients treated by the general practitioner, physio/exercise therapist or orthopedic surgeon within 6 months after onset were assessed. Results: Joint replacement surgeries decreased for knee (OR 0.47 [0.41–0.54]) and hip (OR 0.81 [0.71–0.93]) osteoarthritis between 2013–2019. The use of physio/exercise therapy increased (knee: OR 1.38 [1.24–1.53], hip: OR 1.26 [1.08–1.47]). However, the proportion treated by a physio/exercise therapist decreased for patients that had not depleted their annual deductibles (knee: OR 0.86 [0.79 – 0.94], hip: OR 0.90 [0.79 – 1.02]). This might be affected by the inclusion of physio/exercise therapy in basic health insurance in 2018. Conclusion:We have found a shift from hospitals to primary care in knee and hip osteoarthritis care. However, the use of physio/exercise therapy declined after changes in insurance coverage for patients that had not depleted their deductibles

Modeling power corrections to the Bjorken sum rule for the neutrino structure function F_1

Direct measurements of the the structure functions F_1^{nu p} and F_1^{nu n} at a neutrino factory would allow for an accurate extraction of alpha_s from the Q^2-dependence of the Bjorken sum rule, complementing that based on the Gross-Llewellyn-Smith sum rule for F_3. We estimate the power (1/Q^2-) corrections to the Bjorken sum rule in the instanton vacuum model. For the reduced matrix element of the flavor-nonsinglet twist-4 operator ubar_g_Gdual_gamma_gamma5_u - (u -> d) we obtain a value of 0.18 GeV^2, in good agreement with the QCD sum rule calculations of Braun and Kolesnichenko. Our result allows to reduce the theoretical error in the determination of alpha_s.Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure, uses iopart.cls. Proceedings of the 4th NuFact'02 Workshop "Neutrino Factories based on Muon Storage Rings", Imperial College, London, July 1-6, 200