The Royal Free Hospital score: a calibrated prognostic model for patients with cirrhosis admitted to intensive care unit. Comparison with current models and CLIF-SOFA score

Prognosis for patients with cirrhosis admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) is poor. ICU prognostic models are more accurate than liver-specific models. We identified predictors of mortality, developed a novel prognostic score (Royal Free Hospital (RFH) score), and tested it against established prognostic models and the yet unvalidated Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) model

Development and validation of a mathematical equation to estimate glomerular filtration rate in cirrhosis: The rfh cirrhosis Gfr

Current expressions based on serum creatinine concentration overestimate kidney function in cirrhosis leading to significant differences between "true" and calculated glomerular filtration rate (GFR). We compared the performance of MDRD-4, MDRD-6 and CKD-EPI with "true" GFR and the impact of this difference on MELD calculation. We subsequently developed and validated a GFR equation specifically for cirrhosis and compared the performance of the new derived formula with existing GFR formulas. We included 469 consecutive patients who had a transplant assessment between 2011 and 2014. "True" GFR (mGFR) was measured using plasma isotope clearance according to a technique validated in patients with ascites. A corrected creatinine was derived from the mGFR after application of the MDRD formula. Subsequently, a corrected MELD was calculated and was compared with the conventionally calculated MELD. Stepwise multiple linear regression was used to derive a GFR equation. This was compared with the measured GFR in independent external and internal validation sets of 82 and 174 patients with cirrhosis respectively. A difference>20 ml/min/1.73m(2) between existing formulae and mGFR was observed in 226 (48.2%) patients. The corrected MELD score was ≥3 points higher in 177 (37.7%) patients. The predicted equation derived (R(2) =74·6%) was: GFR=45·9x(creatinine(-0) ·(836) )x(urea(-0) ·(229) )x(INR(-0) ·(113) )x(age(0) ·(129) )x(sodium(0) ·(972) )x1·236(if male)x0·92(if moderate/severe ascites). The model was a good fit and showed the greatest accuracy compared to that of existing formulae. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated a new accurate model for GFR assessment in cirrhosis, the RFH cirrhosis GFR, using readily available variables. This remains to be tested and incorporated in prognostic scores in patients with cirrhosis

Living donor liver transplantation from a donor previously treated with interferon for hepatitis C virus: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Selecting a marginal donor in liver transplantation (LT) remains controversial but is necessary because of the small number of available donors.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>A 46-year-old Japanese woman was a candidate to donate her liver to her brother, who had decompensated liver cirrhosis of unknown origin. Eight years before the donation, she had a mild liver dysfunction that was diagnosed as a hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection (serotype 2). She had received anti-viral therapy with interferon α-2b three times weekly for 24 weeks and had a sustained viral response (SVR). A biopsy of her liver before the donation showed normal findings without any active hepatitis, and her serum was negative for HCV-RNA. Only 67 patients have undergone LT from a cadaveric donor in Japan. The family in this case decided to have living donor LT. A careful selection for the liver graft donation was made; however, since she was the only candidate, we approved her as a living donor. She was discharged nine days after the liver donation. Her liver function recovered immediately. A computed tomography scan showed sufficient liver regeneration one year later. Her brother also had good liver function after LT and had no HCV infection 48 months after surgery and no <it>de novo </it>malignancy. Neither of the siblings has developed an HCV infection.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A patient with SVR status after interferon therapy might be considered a candidate for living donor LT but only if there are no other possibilities of LT for the recipient. A careful follow-up of the donor after donation is needed. The recipient also must have a very close follow-up because it is difficult to predict what might happen to the graft with post-transplant immunosuppression.</p

Circulating microRNAs Reveal Time Course of Organ Injury in a Porcine Model of Acetaminophen-Induced Acute Liver Failure

Acute liver failure is a rare but catastrophic condition which can progress rapidly to multi-organ failure. Studies investigating the onset of individual organ injury such as the liver, kidneys and brain during the evolution of acute liver failure, are lacking. MicroRNAs are short, non-coding strands of RNA that are released into the circulation following tissue injury. In this study, we have characterised the release of both global microRNA and specific microRNA species into the plasma using a porcine model of acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure. Pigs were induced to acute liver failure with oral acetaminophen over 19h±2h and death occurred 13h±3h thereafter. Global microRNA concentrations increased 4h prior to acute liver failure in plasma (P<0.0001) but not in isolated exosomes, and were associated with increasing plasma levels of the damage-associated molecular pattern molecule, genomic DNA (P<0.0001). MiR122 increased around the time of onset of acute liver failure (P<0.0001) and was associated with increasing international normalised ratio (P<0.0001). MiR192 increased 8h after acute liver failure (P<0.0001) and was associated with increasing creatinine (P<0.0001). The increase in miR124-1 occurred concurrent with the pre-terminal increase in intracranial pressure (P<0.0001) and was associated with decreasing cerebral perfusion pressure (P<0.002)

Human serum fetuin A/α2HS-glycoprotein level is associated with long-term survival in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis, comparison with the Child-Pugh and MELD scores

BACKGROUND: Serum concentration of fetuin A/α2HS-glycoprotein (AHSG) is a good indicator of liver cell function and 1-month mortality in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis and liver cancer. We intended to determine whether decreased serum AHSG levels are associated with long-term mortality and whether the follow-up of serum AHSG levels can add to the predictive value of the Child-Pugh (CP) and MELD scores. METHODS: We determined serum AHSG concentrations in 89 patients by radial immunodiffusion. Samples were taken at the time of enrolment and in the 1(st), 3(rd), 6(th), and the 12(th )month thereafter. RESULTS: Forty-one patients died during the 1-year follow-up period, 37 of them had liver failure. Data of these patients were analysed further. Deceased patients had lower baseline AHSG levels than the 52 patients who survived (293 ± 77 vs. 490 ± 106 μg/ml, mean ± SD, p < 0.001). Of all laboratory parameters serum AHSG level, CP and MELD scores showed the greatest difference between deceased and survived patients. The cutoff AHSG level 365 μg/ml could differentiate between deceased and survived patients (AUC: 0.937 ± 0.025, p < 0.001, sensitivity: 0.865, specificity: 0.942) better than the MELD score of 20 (AUC: 0.739 ± 0.052, p < 0.001, sensitivity: 0.595, specificity: 0.729). Initial AHSG concentrations < 365 μg/ml were associated with high mortality rate (91.4%, relative risk: 9.874, 95% C.I.: 4.258–22.898, p < 0.001) compared to those with ≥ 365 μg/ml (9.3%). Fourteen out of these 37 fatalities occurred during the first month of observation. During months 1–12 low AHSG concentration proved to be a strong indicator of mortality (relative risk: 9.257, 95% C.I.: 3.945–21.724, p < 0.001). Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that decrease of serum AHSG concentration was independent of all variables that differed between survived and deceased patients during univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis showed that correlation of low serum AHSG levels with mortality was stronger than that with CP and MELD scores. Patients with AHSG < 365 μg/ml had significantly shortened survival both in groups with MELD < 20 and MELD ≥ 20 (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.0014, respectively). CONCLUSION: Serum AHSG concentration is a reliable and sensitive indicator of 1-year mortality in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis that compares well to the predictive value of CP score and may further improve that of MELD score

Limitations of the MELD score in predicting mortality or need for removal from waiting list in patients awaiting liver transplantation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Decompensated cirrhosis is associated with a poor prognosis and liver transplantation provides the only curative treatment option with excellent long-term results. The relative shortage of organ donors renders the allocation algorithms of organs essential. The optimal strategy based on scoring systems and/or waiting time is still under debate.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data sets of 268 consecutive patients listed for single-organ liver transplantation for nonfulminant liver disease between 2003 and 2005 were included into the study. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores of all patients at the time of listing were used for calculation. The predictive ability not only for mortality on the waiting list but also for the need for withdrawal from the waiting list was calculated for both scores. The Mann-Whitney-U Test was used for the univariate analysis and the AUC-Model for discrimination of the scores.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the univariate analysis comparing patients who are still on the waiting list and patients who died or were removed from the waiting list due to poor conditions, the serum albumin, bilirubin INR, and CTP and MELD scores as well as the presence of ascites and encephalopathy were significantly different between the groups (p < 0.05), whereas serum creatinine and urea showed no difference.</p> <p>Comparing the predictive abilities of CTP and MELD scores, the best discrimination between patients still alive on the waiting list and patients who died on or were removed from the waiting list was achieved at a CTP score of ≥9 and a MELD score of ≥14.4. The sensitivity and specificity to identify mortality or severe deterioration for CTP was 69.0% and 70.5%, respectively; for MELD, it was 62.1% and 72.7%, respectively. This result was supported by the AUC analysis showing a strong trend for superiority of CTP over MELD scores (AUROC 0.73 and 0.68, resp.; p = 0.091).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The long term prediction of mortality or removal from waiting list in patients awaiting liver transplantation might be better assessed by the CTP score than the MELD score. This might have implications for the development of new improved scoring systems.</p

Pretransplant Prediction of Posttransplant Survival for Liver Recipients with Benign End-Stage Liver Diseases: A Nonlinear Model

Background: The scarcity of grafts available necessitates a system that considers expected posttransplant survival, in addition to pretransplant mortality as estimated by the MELD. So far, however, conventional linear techniques have failed to achieve sufficient accuracy in posttransplant outcome prediction. In this study, we aim to develop a pretransplant predictive model for liver recipients ’ survival with benign end-stage liver diseases (BESLD) by a nonlinear method based on pretransplant characteristics, and compare its performance with a BESLD-specific prognostic model (MELD) and a generalillness severity model (the sequential organ failure assessment score, or SOFA score). Methodology/Principal Findings: With retrospectively collected data on 360 recipients receiving deceased-donor transplantation for BESLD between February 1999 and August 2009 in the west China hospital of Sichuan university, we developed a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) network to predict one-year and two-year survival probability after transplantation. The performances of the MLP, SOFA, and MELD were assessed by measuring both calibration ability and discriminative power, with Hosmer-Lemeshow test and receiver operating characteristic analysis, respectively. By the forward stepwise selection, donor age and BMI; serum concentration of HB, Crea, ALB, TB, ALT, INR, Na +; presence of pretransplant diabetes; dialysis prior to transplantation, and microbiologically proven sepsis were identified to be the optimal input features. The MLP, employing 18 input neurons and 12 hidden neurons, yielded high predictive accuracy, wit