Markov state models of biomolecular conformational dynamics

It has recently become practical to construct Markov state models (MSMs) that reproduce the long-time statistical conformational dynamics of biomolecules using data from molecular dynamics simulations. MSMs can predict both stationary and kinetic quantities on long timescales (e.g. milliseconds) using a set of atomistic molecular dynamics simulations that are individually much shorter, thus addressing the well-known sampling problem in molecular dynamics simulation. In addition to providing predictive quantitative models, MSMs greatly facilitate both the extraction of insight into biomolecular mechanism (such as folding and functional dynamics) and quantitative comparison with single-molecule and ensemble kinetics experiments. A variety of methodological advances and software packages now bring the construction of these models closer to routine practice. Here, we review recent progress in this field, considering theoretical and methodological advances, new software tools, and recent applications of these approaches in several domains of biochemistry and biophysics, commenting on remaining challenges

Probability distributions of molecular observables computed from Markov models. II: Uncertainties in observables and their time-evolution

Discrete-state Markov (or master equation) models provide a useful simplified representation for characterizing the long-time statistical evolution of biomolecules in a manner that allows direct comparison with experiments as well as the elucidation of mechanistic pathways for an inherently stochastic process. A vital part of meaningful comparison with experiment is the characterization of the statistical uncertainty in the predicted experimental measurement, which may take the form of an equilibrium measurement of some spectroscopic signal, the time-evolution of this signal following a perturbation, or the observation of some statistic (such as the correlation function) of the equilibrium dynamics of a single molecule. Without meaningful error bars (which arise from both approximation and statistical error), there is no way to determine whether the deviations between model and experiment are statistically meaningful. Previous work has demonstrated that a Bayesian method that enforces microscopic reversibility can be used to characterize the statistical component of correlated uncertainties in state-to-state transition probabilities (and functions thereof) for a model inferred from molecular simulation data. Here, we extend this approach to include the uncertainty in observables that are functions of molecular conformation (such as surrogate spectroscopic signals) characterizing each state, permitting the full statistical uncertainty in computed spectroscopic experiments to be assessed. We test the approach in a simple model system to demonstrate that the computed uncertainties provide a useful indicator of statistical variation, and then apply it to the computation of the fluorescence autocorrelation function measured for a dye-labeled peptide previously studied by both experiment and simulation

Dynamical fingerprints for probing individual relaxation processes in biomolecular dynamics with simulations and kinetic experiments

There is a gap between kinetic experiment and simulation in their views of the dynamics of complex biomolecular systems. Whereas experiments typically reveal only a few readily discernible exponential relaxations, simulations often indicate complex multistate behavior. Here, a theoretical framework is presented that reconciles these two approaches. The central concept is “dynamical fingerprints” which contain peaks at the time scales of the dynamical processes involved with amplitudes determined by the experimental observable. Fingerprints can be generated from both experimental and simulation data, and their comparison by matching peaks permits assignment of structural changes present in the simulation to experimentally observed relaxation processes. The approach is applied here to a test case interpreting single molecule fluorescence correlation spectroscopy experiments on a set of fluorescent peptides with molecular dynamics simulations. The peptides exhibit complex kinetics shown to be consistent with the apparent simplicity of the experimental data. Moreover, the fingerprint approach can be used to design new experiments with site-specific labels that optimally probe specific dynamical processes in the molecule under investigation

Nonequilibrium candidate Monte Carlo: A new tool for efficient equilibrium simulation

Metropolis Monte Carlo simulation is a powerful tool for studying the equilibrium properties of matter. In complex condensed-phase systems, however, it is difficult to design Monte Carlo moves with high acceptance probabilities that also rapidly sample uncorrelated configurations. Here, we introduce a new class of moves based on nonequilibrium dynamics: candidate configurations are generated through a finite-time process in which a system is actively driven out of equilibrium, and accepted with criteria that preserve the equilibrium distribution. The acceptance rule is similar to the Metropolis acceptance probability, but related to the nonequilibrium work rather than the instantaneous energy difference. Our method is applicable to sampling from both a single thermodynamic state or a mixture of thermodynamic states, and allows both coordinates and thermodynamic parameters to be driven in nonequilibrium proposals. While generating finite-time switching trajectories incurs an additional cost, driving some degrees of freedom while allowing others to evolve naturally can lead to large enhancements in acceptance probabilities, greatly reducing structural correlation times. Using nonequilibrium driven processes vastly expands the repertoire of useful Monte Carlo proposals in simulations of dense solvated systems

Markov dynamic models for long-timescale protein motion

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a well-established method for studying protein motion at the atomic scale. However, it is computationally intensive and generates massive amounts of data. One way of addressing the dual challenges of computation efficiency and data analysis is to construct simplified models of long-timescale protein motion from MD simulation data. In this direction, we propose to use Markov models with hidden states, in which the Markovian states represent potentially overlapping probabilistic distributions over protein conformations. We also propose a principled criterion for evaluating the quality of a model by its ability to predict long-timescale protein motions. Our method was tested on 2D synthetic energy landscapes and two extensively studied peptides, alanine dipeptide and the villin headpiece subdomain (HP-35 NleNle). One interesting finding is that although a widely accepted model of alanine dipeptide contains six states, a simpler model with only three states is equally good for predicting long-timescale motions. We also used the constructed Markov models to estimate important kinetic and dynamic quantities for protein folding, in particular, mean first-passage time. The results are consistent with available experimental measurements

Exploring the Free Energy Landscape: From Dynamics to Networks and Back

The knowledge of the Free Energy Landscape topology is the essential key to understand many biochemical processes. The determination of the conformers of a protein and their basins of attraction takes a central role for studying molecular isomerization reactions. In this work, we present a novel framework to unveil the features of a Free Energy Landscape answering questions such as how many meta-stable conformers are, how the hierarchical relationship among them is, or what the structure and kinetics of the transition paths are. Exploring the landscape by molecular dynamics simulations, the microscopic data of the trajectory are encoded into a Conformational Markov Network. The structure of this graph reveals the regions of the conformational space corresponding to the basins of attraction. In addition, handling the Conformational Markov Network, relevant kinetic magnitudes as dwell times or rate constants, and the hierarchical relationship among basins, complete the global picture of the landscape. We show the power of the analysis studying a toy model of a funnel-like potential and computing efficiently the conformers of a short peptide, the dialanine, paving the way to a systematic study of the Free Energy Landscape in large peptides.Comment: PLoS Computational Biology (in press

Best practices for constructing, preparing, and evaluating protein-ligand binding affinity benchmarks

Free energy calculations are rapidly becoming indispensable in structure-enabled drug discovery programs. As new methods, force fields, and implementations are developed, assessing their expected accuracy on real-world systems (benchmarking) becomes critical to provide users with an assessment of the accuracy expected when these methods are applied within their domain of applicability, and developers with a way to assess the expected impact of new methodologies. These assessments require construction of a benchmark - a set of well-prepared, high quality systems with corresponding experimental measurements designed to ensure the resulting calculations provide a realistic assessment of expected performance when these methods are deployed within their domains of applicability. To date, the community has not yet adopted a common standardized benchmark, and existing benchmark reports suffer from a myriad of issues, including poor data quality, limited statistical power, and statistically deficient analyses, all of which can conspire to produce benchmarks that are poorly predictive of real-world performance. Here, we address these issues by presenting guidelines for (1) curating experimental data to develop meaningful benchmark sets, (2) preparing benchmark inputs according to best practices to facilitate widespread adoption, and (3) analysis of the resulting predictions to enable statistically meaningful comparisons among methods and force fields