Slutsky's 1915 Article: How It Came to Be Found and Interpreted

In 1915 the Russian statistician and economist Eugen Slutsky sent off from Kiev an article to the Giornale degli economisti that was translated and published in the July issue of that journal: “Sulla teoria del bilancio del consumatore.” This article passed unnoticed. As is now well known, Slutsky’s article is one of the most famous examples of those neglected and ignored works whose originality and importance are recognized only after similar results have been obtained by others

The percutaneous absorption of soman in a damaged skin porcine model and the evaluation of WoundStat™ as a topical decontaminant

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to evaluate a candidate haemostat (WoundStat™), down-selected from previous in vitro studies, for efficacy as a potential skin decontaminant against the chemical warfare agent pinacoyl methylfluorophosphonate (Soman, GD) using an in vivo pig model. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An area of approximately 3 cm2 was dermatomed from the dorsal ear skin to a nominal depth of 100 µm. A discrete droplet of 14C-GD (300 µg kg-1) was applied directly onto the surface of the damaged skin at the centre of the dosing site. Animals assigned to the treatment group were given a 2 g application of WoundStat™ 30 s after GD challenge. The decontamination efficacy of WoundStat™ against GD was measured by the direct quantification of the distribution of 14C-GD, as well as routine determination of whole blood cholinesterase and physiological measurements. RESULTS: WoundStat™ sequestered approximately 70% of the applied 14C-GD. Internal radiolabel recovery from treated animals was approximately 1% of the initially applied dose. Whole blood cholinesterase levels decreased to less than 10% of the original value by 15 min post WoundStat™ treatment and gradually decreased until the onset of apnoea or until euthanasia. All treated animals showed signs of GD intoxication that could be grouped into early (mastication, fasciculations and tremor), intermediate (miosis, salivation and nasal secretions) and late onset (lacrimation, body spasm and apnoea) effects. Two of the six WoundStat™ treated animals survived the study duration. CONCLUSIONS: The current study has shown that the use of WoundStat™ as a decontaminant on damaged pig ear skin was unable to fully protect against GD toxicity. Importantly, the findings indicate that the use of WoundStat™ in GD contaminated wounds would not exacerbate GD toxicity. These data suggest that absorbent haemostatic products may offer some limited functionality as wound decontaminants.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Optimal Industrial Classification: An Application to the German Industrial Classification System

A widely used method in the analysis of large-scale econometric models is to replace the ``true model'' by an aggregative one in which the variables are grouped and replaced by sums or weighted averages of the variables in each group. The modes of aggregation of the independent and dependent variables may in principle be chosen optimally by minimizing a measure of mean-square forecast error in predicting the dependent variables from the independent variables by using the aggregative rather than detailed variables. However, this results in an optimization problem of a high degree of complexity. Nevertheless, many efficient optimization heuristics have been developed for these kinds of complex problems. We implement the Threshold Accepting heuristic for the problem of optimal aggregation of price indices in a model of the transmission of external (import and export) prices on internal prices, using German data. The algorithm and the resulting groupings are presented. The results suggest that the use of standard or ``official'' modes of aggregation will in general be far from being optimal.

General Equilibrium and Welfare in International Trade

General equilibrium is investigated in the tradition of Cournot, Mill, and Marshall, as applied to countries rather than individuals, on the assumption that individual preferences can be aggregated. This includes the competitive equilibrium of free trade, as well as of restricted trade resulting from tariffs, analyzed by Marshall as well as by Johnson. Johnson’s theory of tariff wars is analyzed as an example of Cournot’s theory of duopoly, leading to a Nash equilibrium in contrast to the competitive equilibrium of free trade. Finally, the effect of unstable equilibrium is discussed as presented in recent work by Wan and Zhou, suggesting a new concept of negotiated equilibrium.Suivant la tradition de Cournot, Mill et Marshall, on étudie un modèle d’équilibre général s’appliquant à des pays et non à des individus, sous l’hypothèse que les préférences individuelles peuvent être agrégées. Ce modèle couvre à la fois le cas d’équilibre concurrentiel avec libre échange et le cas de commerce restreint par des droits de douanes, analysé par Marshall aussi bien que par Johnson. La théorie de la guerre des droits de douane de Johnson est analysée comme un exemple de théorie du duopole de Cournot, conduisant à un équilibre de Nash par opposition à l’équilibre concurrentiel de libre échange. Pour terminer, on discute le cas d’un équilibre instable, tel que Wan et Zhou l’ont présenté récemment, suggérant ainsi un nouveau concept d’équilibre négocié

Environmental Contaminant Concentrations in Canada Goose (\u3ci\u3eBranta canadensis\u3c/i\u3e) Muscle: Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Human Consumers

The issue of food insecurity affects millions of people in the United States every year. Often these people rely on soup kitchens, food banks, and shelters for proper meals, and these organizations often depend on donations to meet needs. One of the most limited food resources is meat. To help alleviate this problem, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services donates more than 60 tons of wild game (deer, moose, feral hogs, goats, geese, and ducks) to a variety of charitable organizations each year. Although commercially produced meat routinely undergoes screening for contaminants, potential exposure to environmental contaminants from eating wild game is not well characterized. In this study, the concentration of 17 contaminants of concern in the breast meat of wild geese was examined. These concentrations were then used in a probabilistic model to estimate potential risk associated with consumption of this meat. Based on model predictions, more than 99% of all adults were below exposure limits for all of the compounds tested. For all consumer age classes modeled, consumption of wild goose meat may expose a small fraction of these populations to levels of lead higher than the recommended exposure limits. Similarly, mercury exposure was predicted to be higher than the recommended limits when the meat was served as steaks. This information about concentrations of contaminants of concern in goose meat and potential exposures associated with meat consumption based on probabilistic models will enable others to make informed decisions about the risks associated with the consumption of wild meat