Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions

We construct a framework for measuring economic activity in real time (e.g., minute-by-minute), using a variety of stock and flow data observed at mixed frequencies. Specifically, we propose a dynamic factor model that permits exact filtering, and we explore the efficacy of our methods both in a simulation study and in a detailed empirical example.Business cycle, Expansion, Recession, State space model, Macroeconomic forecasting, Dynamic factor model

Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Second Version

We construct a framework for measuring economic activity at high frequency, potentially in real time. We use a variety of stock and flow data observed at mixed frequencies (including very high frequencies), and we use a dynamic factor model that permits exact filtering. We illustrate the framework in a prototype empirical example and a simulation study calibrated to the example.Business cycle, Expansion, Recession, State space model, Macroeconomic forecasting, Dynamic factor model, Contraction, Turning point

Markov Switching Garch Models of Currency Crises in Southeast Asia

This paper develops a model which is able to forecast exchange rate turmoil. Our starting point relies on the empirical evidence that exchange rate volatility is not constant. In fact, the modeling strategy adopted refers to the vast literature of the GARCH class of models, where the variance process is explicitly modeled. Further empirical evidence shows that it is possible to distinguish between two different regimes: “ordinary” versus “turbulence”. Low exchange rate changes are associated with low volatility (ordinary regime) and high exchange rate devaluations go together with high volatility. This calls for a regime switching approach. In our model we also allow the transition probabilities to vary over time as functions of economic and financial indicators. We find that real effective exchange rate, money supply relative to reserves, stock index returns and bank stock index returns and volatility are the major indicators.Currency crises, Markov Switching Models, Volatility

Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison

This discussion paper is available for download from the Social Science Research Network electronic library. To view this article in its entirety please see the related resources section above

Is the Intrinsic Value of Macroeconomic News Announcements Related to their Asset Price Impact?

The literature documents a heterogeneous asset price response to macroeconomic news announcements: Some announcements have a strong impact on asset prices and others do not. In order to explain these differences, we estimate a novel measure of the intrinsic value of a macroeconomic announcement, which we define as the announcement's ability to nowcast GDP growth, inflation, and the Federal Funds Target Rate. Using the same nowcasting framework, we then decompose this intrinsic value into the announcement's characteristics: its relation to fundamentals, timing, and revision noise. We find that in the 1998–2013 period, a significant fraction of the variation in the announcements' price impact on the Treasury bond futures market can be explained by differences in intrinsic value. Furthermore, our novel measure of timing explains significantly more of this variation than the announcements' relation to fundamentals, reporting lag (which previous studies have used as a measure of timing), or revision noise

Markov Switching GARCH Models of Currency Crises in Southeast Asia

revision presented at the annual meeting of the Econometric Society, Washington, D.C., ( 01/2003 : 01/2003

Are periodontitis and psoriasis associated? A pre-clinical murine model

AIM: To investigate the bidirectional influence between periodontitis and psoriasis, using the respective experimental models of ligature- and imiquimod-induced diseases on murine models. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty-two C57/BL6J mice were randomly allocated to four experimental groups: control (P- Pso-), ligature-induced periodontitis (P+ Pso-), imiquimod-induced psoriasis (P- Pso+) and periodontitis and psoriasis (P+ Pso+). Samples (maxilla, dorsal skin and blood) were harvested immediately after death. Measures of periodontitis (distance between the cemento-enamel junction and alveolar bone crest [CEJ-ABC] and the number of osteoclasts) and psoriasis (epidermal thickness and infiltrate cell [/0.03mm2]) severity as well as systemic inflammation (IL-6, IL-17A, TNF-α) were collected. RESULTS: The P+ Pso+ group exhibited the most severe experimental periodontitis and psoriasis, with the highest values of CEJ-ABC, number of osteoclasts, epidermal thickness and infiltrate cells in the dorsal skin, as well as the highest blood cytokine concentration. The P+ Pso- group presented with higher cell infiltrate (/0.03mm2) compared to the control group (p <.05), while the P- Pso+ group showed substantially higher alveolar bone loss (CEJ-ABC) than the control group (p <.05). CONCLUSIONS: Experimental periodontitis may initiate and maintain psoriasiform skin inflammation and, vice versa, experimental psoriasis may contribute to the onset of periodontitis. In a combined model of the diseases, we propose a bidirectional association between periodontitis and psoriasis via systemic inflammation

Coronary Angiography After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement (TAVR) to Evaluate the Risk of Coronary Access Impairment After TAVR‐in‐TAVR

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Efficacy of the additional use of subgingival air‑polishing with erythritol powder in the treatment of periodontitis patients: a randomized controlled clinical trial. Part II: effect on sub‑gingival microbiome

Objectives. To date, scarce evidence exists around the application of subgingival air-polishing during treatment of severe periodontitis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect on the health-related and periodontitis-related subgingival microbiome of air-polishing during non-surgical treatment of deep bleeding pockets in stage III–IV periodontitis patients. Materials and methods. Forty patients with stage III–IV periodontitis were selected, and pockets with probing depth (PD) 5–9 mm and bleeding on probing were selected as experimental sites. All patients underwent a full-mouth session of erythritol powder supragingival air-polishing and ultrasonic instrumentation. Test group received additional subgingival air-polishing at experimental sites. Subgingival microbial samples were taken from the maxillary experimental site showing the deepest PD at baseline. Primary outcome of the first part of the present study was the 3-month change in the number of experimental sites. Additional analysis of periodontal pathogens and other sub-gingival plaque bacteria sampled at one experimental site at baseline and 3 months following treatment was performed through a real-time quantitative PCR microarray. Results. In the test group, a statistical increase of some health-related species was observed (Abiotropha defectiva, Capnocytophaga sputigena, and Lautropia mirabilis), together with the decrease of pathogens such as of Actinomyces israelii, Catonella morbi, Filifactor alocis, Porphyromonas endodontalis, Sele-nomonas sputigena, Tannerella forsythia, Treponema denticola, and Treponema socranskii. In the control group, statistical significance was found only in the decrease of Filifactor alocis, Tannerella forsythia, and Treponema socranskii. Conclusions. The addition of erythritol-chlorhexidine powder seems to cause a shift of the periodontal microbiome toward a more eubiotic condition compared to a conventional treatment. The study was registered on Clinical Trials.gov (NCT04264624). Clinical relevance. Subgingival air-polishing could help re-establishing a eubiotic microbioma in deep bleeding periodontal pockets after initial non-surgical treatment