Quantifying Wikipedia usage patterns before stock market moves

Financial crises result from a catastrophic combination of actions. Vast stock market datasets offer us a window into some of the actions that have led to these crises. Here, we investigate whether data generated through Internet usage contain traces of attempts to gather information before trading decisions were taken. We present evidence in line with the intriguing suggestion that data on changes in how often financially related Wikipedia pages were viewed may have contained early signs of stock market moves. Our results suggest that online data may allow us to gain new insight into early information gathering stages of decision making

The steel industry in a war economy

This item was digitized by the Internet Archive. Thesis (M.A.)--Boston UniversityIn the foregoing chapters we have seen the position of the steel industry in the last war, its behavior in the intervening period and its situation so far in the present conflict. It is difficult to present an analysis of steel securities without going into the factors of production. Without a knowledge of the bearing of these items unon the industry no reliable analysis can be made. An investor must at least be familiar with and know the operations of an industry--not necessarily in detail but at least to have a general picture in order to comprehend the effect of fluctuating business conditions. This is the main reason why production, capacity, prices, taxes, labor, and earnings were discussed. In the last World War and the present, business conditions are similar. The year 1913 was a prosperity year followed by the depression - a severe steel depression in 1914. Then war prosperity took the lead. Similarly, 1937 was a prosperity year followed by the depression year of 1938. In 1939, the present conflict began with an artificial war prosperity here. Just how long it will last no one can definite say, but we know that this artificial prosperity will thrive until we have two naval fleets and a huge mechanized army. The long term trend of steel production is synonymous with the industrial growth of the nation and coincident with the business cycles. Since steel is the raw material of other industries, general business conditions are effective to the industry's ups and downs. This is the foundation for the belief in industrial circles that if a barometer of business is wanting, watch steel production. The United States Steel Corporation, formed in 1901, dominates the steel industry in America and ranks first as a steel producer in the world, Bethlehem is a close running second. Both are heavy steel producers, but Bethlehem has also munition and ship-building plants which explain why she had a running start in business in the last war in comparison with the bigger United States Steel. Steel production proved to be adequate for the needs of the last war proves that steel masters know how and can produce volume. This is still true. With prices set at a level which insured profits, coupled with a free rein to produce, the steel industry made tremendous profits in the last war and, consequently, have its investors handsome returns. It was very profitable to hold steel stocks in the last war. Iron and Steel ingot capacity has seen a shift in emphasis. In the early days of steel making, pig iron was used. As time went on engineers found a way to use scrap iron and thus preserve iron ore deposits. Where once the normal furnace charge was 100% pig iron, it is now 50%, with steel scrap constituting the remaining 50%. The cheap price of scrap has been the incentive to an increased use for scrap and, consequently, the less money is absorbed in fixed charges. However, the percentage of both consumed varies moderately in their ratio to each other. Price fixing or price stabilization has been the policy of the steel industry through the ages based on the belief that stable prices insure well rounded production and eliminates cut-throat competition. Instituted and strictly maintained by Judge Gary of the United States Steel Corporation, no company has sought to alter the system. Then the government criticized the price structure as monopolistic, the basing system was elaborated to the Multiple Base System, but the inherent principle was never changed. However, prices are not as rigid as they appear to be on paper. Numerous price concessions are made from which the base price is the goal. Earnings in the last world war soared and investors took part in their enjoyment for three years of war prosperity without government controls. Furthermore, the controls, fixed prices and excess profits taxes did not take effect until 1918 and at that did not curtail disbursements to stockholders severely. By keeping large earnings in liquid form, spelling working capital, refinancing, and remodeling the plants, steel shares received greatly added values after the war. The derresion of 1929 did not overlook the steel industry. It struck severely, mainly because of the enormous plant investment required and the small amount of operations. The strength of war taxes today outshines those of twenty years ago. The levy made in 1917 did not affect the industry as much as the present tax program will. In this war, growth companies will be hard put. Bethlehem Steel has already earned its tax tease, while United States Steel still has a little way to go. The present program, taxing before dividend disembursments, reduces steel securities to ones of medium attraction. In the 1930 decade, the main problems facing the Industry were ones of plant rehabilitation, indebtedness, refinancing, labor, and wages. Progressive management has cored with these problems successfully. Rehabilitation of slants has revolved about the establishment of the continuous rolling mill which has resulted in a greater use of capital investment, greater efficiency, and improved output per man. Indebtedness has been solved by refinancing and saving millions in interest payments annually. The steel industry has fought to maintain an open shop and a twelve hour day. Controversies with the C.I.O., and N.I.R.B. has not changed the shop policy, but has reduced the work day. Steel wages were finally set at 62 1/2¢ per hour. Today the rate has advanced to 82¢ and further increases are threatening. Since labor is resuming its strides, the industry is in a crucial position. Any strike interferes with production, but any strive of prolonged duration will interfere not only with the rate of operations, but with the tide of events abroad. England is dependent upon our steel industry and we have promised all our aid. Labor is becoming more powerful and demanding. Moreover, Washington is not taking any active or preliminary steps to curb labor. As the labor costs go up, the net earnings will come down and similarly the net return on investment. The rise of light steels and alloys is the steady development of a new trend in the industry. With the continuous rolling mill as its means of supply and increased uses from various channels constituting its demand, light steels and alloys are going ahead. They are pioneer industries, now, and have the happy prospects of the expansion stage before they become staid, settled industries of the intensive stage. With a demand for substitutions and increased uses for an old product light steels and alloys are far from there hey-day. Plastics, as yet, are no threat to the steel industry. Much research and improvement is necessary before they will become a competitor. The mechanized warfare today is placing the steel Industry in all-time high levels. The pattern of events experienced in the last war are not being followed, but rather, corrected at the beginning. There will be no runaway or ice markets or tremendous earnings. Steel securities have risen with the inception of war, but will in no way approach the heights of the last. On the other hand, returns on investment promise to be moderate. The market investor can never be sure of a return every year. The dividend records prove this. But the market speculator who looks for appreciation rather then disbursement, provided he saw the trend at the proper time, could make tremendous gains and realize profits. Steel securities never qualify as sound investments which yielded a return annually. There are more years of unpaid dividends than there are paid. This is mainly due to the cyclical mature of the industry and its "prince and pauper" characteristics.https://archive.org/details/steelindustryinw00che

Quantifying the diversity of news around stock market moves

The dynamics of news are such that some days are dominated by a single story while others see news outlets reporting on a range of different events. While these largescale features of news are familiar to many, they are often ignored in settings where they may be important in understanding complex decision-making processes, such as in financial markets. In this paper, we use a topic-modeling approach to quantify the changing attentions of a major news outlet, the Financial Times, to issues of interest. Our analysis reveals that the diversity of financial news, as quantified by our method, can improve forecasts of trading volume. We also find evidence which suggests that, while attention in financial news tends to be concentrated on a smaller number of topics following stock market falls, there is a "healthy diversity" of news following upward market movements. We conclude that the diversity of financial news can be a useful forecasting tool, offering early warning signals of increased activity in financial markets

A study about making the most of Care Quality Commission data (Predicting and detecting abuse in registered care homes and supported living for people with a learning disability and autistic people):Easy Read Summary Report

Note: the full report on which this Easy Read Summary Report is based is below

Electronic Information Sharing Between Nursing and Adult Social Care Practitioners in Separate Locations: A Mixed-Methods Case Study

Context: A longstanding concern in both the UK and internationally is that multiple health and social care professionals undertake assessments of adults and older people with complex needs but information is not shared. Electronic information sharing within assessment and support planning has been identified as a means of promoting integrated care for adults with complex health and social care needs. Objective: To evaluate the implementation of a shared electronic record between nursing and adult social care practitioners in separate agencies and locations to inform the assessment of need for adults and older people with complex needs. Methods: The design of the study reflected the incremental implementation of the shared electronic record between 2010 and 2012 in one geographical area within England. It was a mixed-methods case study employing data from three sources: audit of patient case files; survey of nurse practitioners’ time use, well-being and job satisfaction; and manager interviews post-implementation providing further insights into the implementation process. Findings: Electronic information sharing facilitated greater involvement of adult social care practitioners in the continuing healthcare assessment process and contributed to a more streamlined service. No adverse effects of the intervention on the well-being and job satisfaction of nursing practitioners’ were reported. Limitations: This research was undertaken in a single setting. Implications: Continuing healthcare services are a universal service that uses a standardised assessment process offering the potential for this to be replicated elsewhere. Thus findings are of value to policy makers and practitioners and offer the potential to inform wider roll-out

Commentary on “learning disability services:user views on transition planning”

© 2018, Emerald Publishing Limited. Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore the views of people with learning disabilities on issues associated with continuity of care in the transition from full-time education to adult care and support. Design/methodology/approach: Data collection was undertaken with people with learning disabilities and staff in two advocacy organisations in one area of England in 2012. In total, 19 participants attended three focus groups. Analysis focussed on continuity of care and was guided by the framework approach to qualitative analysis. Findings: Teachers, social workers in children’s services and youth workers were identified as making important contributions to the transition process. Information relating to learning and social development was identified as most important to inform transition planning with less priority accorded to health, communication, and self-care and independence. Participants appeared to value principles which underpin continuity of care. Research limitations/implications: This study provides insights into attributes of continuity of care valued by people with a learning disability. Possibilities of translating these attributes into practice within localities are explored. Findings could be used to inform strategic planning locally to promote service integration thereby contributing to continuity of care within transition planning. Originality/value: Continuity of care in the transition planning process is highlighted in policy guidance with recognition that both practice and procedures require improvement. This research explores areas for development from the perspective of people with learning disabilities

Commissioning home care for older people: scoping the evidence

Context: Many people over the age of 65 receive support from home care providers to enable them to continue to live at home. In the UK, local authorities (England, Wales and Scotland) and Health and Social Care Trusts (Northern Ireland) commission these support services. However, little is known about these arrangements. Objectives: To address this knowledge gap through identifying the lessons from research for commissioners of home care for older people. Method: A scoping review was undertaken to extrapolate the lessons from research for future practice. Searches were conducted in 2016/17 and the analysis was completed 2017/18. Electronic and manual searches of UK literature were undertaken using distinct terms to investigate the people, organisations and processes intrinsic to commissioning home care for older people. Findings: From a total of 1,819 papers and government reports, 22 met the inclusion criteria, indicative of a limited body of knowledge. A variety of research methods and designs were included with mixed methods most frequently used. Four lessons were identified relating to: the marketisation of home care; the future of care at home; promoting integration with local partners in commissioning home care; and areas for future research. Limitations: The focus on research evidence may have meant that potentially interesting insights to inform future commissioning strategies from conceptual articles were omitted from the review. Implications: Understanding the complexities of market management in commissioning home care for older people is still at an early stage of development. This review provides evidence to inform its future development of value to policy makers and practitioners

Home care services for older people: findings from a national survey of social care commissioners

Abstrac

A discrete choice experiment to explore carer preferences. Quality in Ageing and Older Adults.

© Emerald Publishing Limited. Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to describe a case study to test the applicability of the discrete choice experiment (DCE) method to assess the preferences of carers of people with dementia. The focus of enquiry was home care provision. Design/methodology/approach - A multi-method approach was adopted for this pilot study. A literature review identified key characteristics of home care for dementia. This informed consultations with lay representatives. Key attributes of home care for the DCE were identified and formed the basis for the schedule. In all, 28 carers were recruited by two voluntary organisations to complete the DCE. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to analyse the data. Findings - Seven attributes of home care for people with dementia were identified from the consultation. The use of the DCE approach permitted the identification of those most important to carers. Despite the modest sample, statistically significant findings were reported in relation to five of the attributes indicating their relevance. A lay involvement in the identification of attributes contributed to the ease of administration of the schedule and relevance of the findings. Originality/value - This study demonstrated the utility of a DCE to capture the preferences of carers of people with dementia and thereby gather information from carers to inform policy, practice and service development. Their involvement in the design of the schedule was critical to this process

Reflecting on the research encounter for people in the early stages of dementia:Lessons from an embedded qualitative study

Gathering meaningful data from people with dementia presents challenges to researchers involved in both qualitative and quantitative studies. Careful planning and implementation are required, including skilful and sympathetic management by the researcher who must pay attention to the cognitive challenges experienced by the person with dementia. These challenges are particularly evident when conducting structured interviews using standardised measures. This paper presents the findings of an embedded qualitative study undertaken within a pragmatic randomised controlled trial. The novel method involves nesting a qualitative analysis within a quantitative study by recording incidental conversation during structured interviews, requiring no additional data collection. The method shone a light on the formal interview process itself, something rarely revealed outside the interview setting. It provided a unique insight into the challenges posed by research participation for people in early-stage dementia. Analysis revealed three main themes relating to dementia as a condition and to the research design. First, people with dementia contributed very few conversational comments during the structured interviews. Second, the context of the interview, that is: managing the conversational interchange, responding to direct and often sensitive questions and making decisions about day-to day-feelings and experiences was difficult for participants to manage. Third, people in early stage dementia struggled with the content of the structured interviews due to their linguistic and cognitive demands. The findings raise questions about how people with dementia are included in research and the methods employed to gather accurate data with minimal inconvenience and stress for research participants