A method to assess demand growth vulnerability of travel times on road network links

Many national governments around the world have turned their recent focus to monitoring the actual reliability of their road networks. In parallel there have been major research efforts aimed at developing modelling approaches for predicting the potential vulnerability of such networks, and in forecasting the future impact of any mitigating actions. In practice-whether monitoring the past or planning for the future-a confounding factor may arise, namely the potential for systematic growth in demand over a period of years. As this growth occurs the networks will operate in a regime closer to capacity, in which they are more sensitive to any variation in flow or capacity. Such growth will be partially an explanation for trends observed in historic data, and it will have an impact in forecasting too, where we can interpret this as implying that the networks are vulnerable to demand growth. This fact is not reflected in current vulnerability methods which focus almost exclusively on vulnerability to loss in capacity. In the paper, a simple, moment-based method is developed to separate out this effect of demand growth on the distribution of travel times on a network link, the aim being to develop a simple, tractable, analytic method for medium-term planning applications. Thus the impact of demand growth on the mean, variance and skewness in travel times may be isolated. For given critical changes in these summary measures, we are thus able to identify what (location-specific) level of demand growth would cause these critical values to be exceeded, and this level is referred to as Demand Growth Reliability Vulnerability (DGRV). Computing the DGRV index for each link of a network also allows the planner to identify the most vulnerable locations, in terms of their ability to accommodate growth in demand. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the principles and computation of the DGRV measure

Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO₂ emissions

CO2 emissions are of global concern because of climate change. China has become the largest CO2 emitter in the world and presently accounts for 30% of global emissions. Here, we analyze the major drivers of energy-related CO2 emissions in China from 1978 when the reform and opening-up policy was launched. We find that 1) there has been a 6-fold increase in energy-related CO2 emissions, which was driven primarily (176%) by economic growth followed by population growth (16%), while the effects of energy intensity (−79%) and carbon intensity (−13%) slowed the growth of carbon emissions over most of this period; 2) energy-related CO2 emissions are positively related to per capita gross domestic product (GDP), population growth rate, carbon intensity, and energy intensity; and 3) a portfolio of command-and-control policies affecting the drivers has altered the total emission trend. However, given the major role of China in global climate change mitigation, significant future reductions in China’s CO2 emissions will require transformation toward low-carbon energy systems

Constraints on Decaying Dark Matter from Fermi Observations of Nearby Galaxies and Clusters

We analyze the impact of Fermi gamma-ray observations (primarily non-detections) of selected nearby galaxies, including dwarf spheroidals, and of clusters of galaxies on decaying dark matter models. We show that the fact that galaxy clusters do not shine in gamma rays puts the most stringent limits available to-date on the lifetime of dark matter particles for a wide range of particle masses and decay final states. In particular, our results put strong constraints on the possibility of ascribing to decaying dark matter both the increasing positron fraction reported by PAMELA and the high-energy feature in the electron-positron spectrum measured by Fermi. Observations of nearby dwarf galaxies and of the Andromeda Galaxy (M31) do not provide as strong limits as those from galaxy clusters, while still improving on previous constraints in some cases.Comment: 27 pages, 5 figures, submitted to JCAP, revised version with some additions and correction

A 2 rotaxane-based H-1 NMR spectroscopic probe for the simultaneous identification of physiologically important metal ions in solution

We describe a [ 2] rotaxane molecule that exhibits distinct signals in its H-1 NMR spectra upon the complexation of physiologically important Li+, Na+, Mg2+ and Ca2+ ions; thus, the identification of these metal ions in solution is possible from the analysis of a single H-1 NMR spectrum of a single molecular sensor

Electroweak Radiative Corrections to Parity-Violating Electroexcitation of the Δ\Delta

We analyze the degree to which parity-violating (PV) electroexcitation of the $\Delta(1232)$ resonance may be used to extract the weak neutral axial vector transition form factors. We find that the axial vector electroweak radiative corrections are large and theoretically uncertain, thereby modifying the nominal interpretation of the PV asymmetry in terms of the weak neutral form factors. We also show that, in contrast to the situation for elastic electron scattering, the axial $N\to\Delta$ PV asymmetry does not vanish at the photon point as a consequence of a new term entering the radiative corrections. We argue that an experimental determination of these radiative corrections would be of interest for hadron structure theory, possibly shedding light on the violation of Hara's theorem in weak, radiative hyperon decays.Comment: RevTex, 76 page

Genetic variation at MECOM, TERT, JAK2 and HBS1L-MYB predisposes to myeloproliferative neoplasms

Clonal proliferation in myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) is driven by somatic mutations in JAK2, CALR or MPL, but the contribution of inherited factors is poorly characterized. Using a three-stage genome-wide association study of 3,437 MPN cases and 10,083 controls, we identify two SNPs with genome-wide significance in JAK2V617F-negative MPN: rs12339666 (JAK2; meta-analysis P=1.27 × 10−10) and rs2201862 (MECOM; meta-analysis P=1.96 × 10−9). Two additional SNPs, rs2736100 (TERT) and rs9376092 (HBS1L/MYB), achieve genome-wide significance when including JAK2V617F-positive cases. rs9376092 has a stronger effect in JAK2V617F-negative cases with CALR and/or MPL mutations (Breslow–Day P=4.5 × 10−7), whereas in JAK2V617F-positive cases rs9376092 associates with essential thrombocythemia (ET) rather than polycythemia vera (allelic χ2 P=7.3 × 10−7). Reduced MYB expression, previously linked to development of an ET-like disease in model systems, associates with rs9376092 in normal myeloid cells. These findings demonstrate that multiple germline variants predispose to MPN and link constitutional differences in MYB expression to disease phenotype

Low-temperature nitridation of Fe3O4 by reaction with NaNH2

Low-temperature soft chemical synthesis routes to transition-metal nitrides are of interest as an alternative to conventional high-temperature ammonolysis reactions involving large volumes of chemotoxic NH3 gas. One such method is the reaction between metal oxides and NaNH2 at ca. 200 °C to yield the counterpart nitrides; however, there remains uncertainty regarding the reaction mechanism and product phase assemblage (in particular, noncrystalline components). Here, we extend the chemical tool box and mechanistic understanding of such reactions, demonstrating the nitridation of Fe3O4 by reaction with NaNH2 at 170–190 °C, via a pseudomorphic reaction. The more reduced Fe3O4 precursor enabled nitride formation at lower temperatures than the previously reported equivalent reaction with Fe2O3. The product phase assemblage, characterized by X-ray diffraction, thermogravimetric analysis, and 57Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy, comprised 49–59 mol % ε-Fe2+xN, accompanied by 29–39 mol % FeO1–xNx and 8–14 mol % γ″-FeN. The oxynitride phase was apparently noncrystalline in the recovered product but could be crystallized by heating at 180 °C. Although synthesis of transition-metal nitrides is achieved by reaction of the counterpart oxide with NaNH2, it is evident from this investigation that the product phase assemblage may be complex, which could prove a limitation if the objective is to produce a single-phase product with well-defined electrical, magnetic, or other physical properties for applications. However, the significant yield of the FeO1–xNx oxynitride phase identified in this study opens the possibility for the synthesis of metastable oxynitride phases in high yield, by reaction of a metal oxide substrate with NaNH2, with either careful control of H2O concentration in the system or postsynthetic hydrolysis and crystallization