Climate change impact on China food security in 2050

Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and technology development. Our results predict that food crop yield will increase +3-11 % under A2 scenario and +4 % under B2 scenario during 2030-2050, despite disparities among individual crops. As a consequence China will be able to achieve a production of 572 and 615 MT in 2030, then 635 and 646 MT in 2050 under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2030 the food security index (FSI) will drop from +24 % in 2009 to -4.5 % and +10.2 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2050, however, the FSI is predicted to increase to +7.1 % and +20.0 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, but this increase will be achieved only with the projected decrease of Chinese population. We conclude that 1) the proposed food security index is a simple yet powerful tool for food security analysis; (2) yield growth rate is a much better indicator of food security than yield per se; and (3) climate change only has a moderate positive effect on food security as compared to other factors such as cropland area, population growth, socio-economic pathway and technology development. Relevant policy options and research topics are suggested accordingly

Effects of fence enclosure on vegetation community characteristics and productivity of a degraded temperate meadow steppe in Northern China

Species composition and biomass are two important indicators in assessing the effects of restoration measures of degraded grasslands. In this paper, we present a field study on the temporal changes in plant community characteristics, species diversity and biomass production in a degraded temperate meadow steppe in response to an enclosure measure in Hulunbuir in Northern China. Our results showed that the plant community responded positively to the fence enclosure in terms of vegetation coverage, height, above- and belowground biomass. A year-to-year increase in aboveground biomass was observed, and this increase plateaued at the ninth year of the enclosure. Our results also showed that the existing dominant and foundation species gained predominance against other species. The sum of the biomass of these two species was more than doubled after the ninth year of the enclosure. However, belowground biomass only briefly increased until the fifth year of the enclosure and then decreased until the end of the experimental period. Plant diversity, evenness, and richness indices showed similar trends to that of belowground biomass. Overall, we found that the degraded temperate meadow steppe responded significantly positively to the enclosure treatment, but an optimal condition was only reached after approximately 5-7 years of continuous protection, providing a solid use case for grassland conservation and management at regional scales

Effect of Maillard Reaction on Tropomyosin Immunoreactivity in Mactra veneriformis

In this study, xylose and arabinose were subjected separately to Maillard reaction with a crude extract of Mactra veneriformis under dry-heating conditions. The immunoreactivity and digestion properties of the Maillard reaction products (MRPs) were analyzed, finding that the Maillard reaction could reduce the immunoreactivity of allergens derived from Mactra veneriformis, increase the continuous digestion rate of the crude extract in simulated gastrointestinal fluid, and reduce the particle diameter of the digestion products. After that, TM in the MRPs was separated and purified, and its structural characteristics and immunoreactivity were analyzed. The results showed that the α-helix content of TM decreased and the β-sheet, β-turn, and random coil contents increased after the Maillard reaction, the surface hydrophobicity increased, and the spatial structure changed, which eventually led to a reduction in the immunoreactivity of TM. This study provides a theoretical basis for the development of hypoallergenic clam products

Association of gestational age at birth with subsequent suspected Developmental Coordination Disorder in early childhood

Importance. It remains unknown whether children born at different degrees of prematurity, early-term and post-term might have a higher risk of developing Developmental Coordination Disorder (DCD) compared to completely full-term children (39-40 gestational weeks). Objective. To differentiate between suspected DCD in children with different gestational ages based on a national representative sample in China. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We conducted a retrospective cohort study in China from 2018 to 2019. A total of 152,433 children from 2,403 public kindergartens in 551 cities of China aged 3-5 years old were included in the final analysis. The association between gestational age and motor performance was investigated. A multi-level regression model was developed to determine the strength of association for different gestational ages associated with suspected DCD when considering kindergartens as clusters. Main outcomes and measures. Children’s motor performance was assessed using the Little Developmental Coordination Disorder Questionnaire (LDCDQ), completed by parents. Gestational age was determined according to the mother’s medical records. Results. Of the 152,433 children aged 3-5 years old, 80,370 (52.7%) were male, and 72,063 (47.3%) were female. There were 45,052 children aged 3 years old (29.6%), 59,796 aged 4 years old(39.2%), and 47,585 children aged 5 years old (31.2%). The LDCDQ total scores for very-preterm (β=-1.74, 95%CI: -1.98, 1.50; p<0.001), moderately-preterm (β=-1.24, 95%CI: -1.60, -0.89; p<0.001), late-preterm (β=-0.92, 95%CI: -1.08, -0.76; p<0.001), early-term (β=-0.36, 95%CI: -0.46, -0.25; p<0.001) and post-term children (β=-0.47, 95%CI: -0.67, -0.26; p<0.001) were significantly lower than full-term children when adjusting for child, family and maternal health characteristics. The very-preterm (OR=1.35, 95%CI: 1.23,1.48; p<0.001), moderately-preterm (OR=1.18, 95%CI: 1.02, 1.36; p<0.001), late-preterm (OR =1.24, 95%CI: 1.16,1.32; p<0.001), early-term (OR =1.11, 95%CI: 1.06,1.16; p<0.001) and post-term children (OR =1.167, 95%CI: 1.07, 1.27; p<0.001) were more likely to fall in the suspected Developmental Coordination Disorder (DCD) category on the LDCDQ compared with completely full-term children after adjusting for the same characteristics. The associations between different gestational ages and suspected DCD were stronger in boys and older (5 year old) children (each p<0.05). Conclusions and relevance. We found significant associations between every degree of prematurity at birth, early-term and post-term birth with suspected DCD when compared with full-term birth. Our findings have important implications for understanding motor development in children born at different gestational ages. Long-term follow-up and rehabilitation interventions should be considered for early- and post-term born children

Modification effect of changes in cardiometabolic traits in association between kidney stones and cardiovascular events

BackgroundsWhether longitudinal changes in metabolic status influence the effect of kidney stones on cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains unclarified. We investigated the modification effect of status changes in metabolic syndrome (MetS) in the association of kidney stones with risk of incident CVD events.MethodsWe performed a prospective association and interaction study in a nationwide cohort including 129,172 participants aged ≥ 40 years without CVDs at baseline and followed up for an average of 3.8 years. Kidney stones information was collected by using a questionnaire and validated by medical records. The repeated biochemical measurements were performed to ascertain the metabolic status at both baseline and follow-up.Results4,017 incident total CVDs, 1,413 coronary heart diseases (CHDs) and 2,682 strokes were documented and ascertained during follow-up. Kidney stones presence was significantly associated with 44%, 70% and 31% higher risk of CVDs, CHDs and stroke, respectively. The stratified analysis showed significant associations were found in the incident and sustained MetS patients, while no significant associations were found in the non-MetS at both baseline and follow-up subjects or the MetS remission ones, especially in women. For the change status of each single component of the MetS, though the trends were not always the same, the associations with CVD were consistently significant in those with sustained metabolic disorders, except for the sustained high blood glucose group, while the associations were consistently significant in those with incident metabolic disorders except for the incident blood pressure group. We also found a significant association of kidney stone and CVD or CHD risk in the remain normal glucose or triglycerides groups; while the associations were consistently significant in those with incident metabolic disorders except for the incident blood pressure group. We also found a significant association of kidney stone and CVD or CHD risk in the remain normal glucose or triglycerides groups.ConclusionsA history of kidney stones in women with newly developed MetS or long-standing MetS associated with increased risk of CVD. The mechanisms link kidney stones and CVD risk in the metabolic and non-metabolic pathways were warranted for further studies

The Relative Body Weight Gain From Early to Middle Life Adulthood Associated With Later Life Risk of Diabetes: A Nationwide Cohort Study

AimTo determine the effect of decade-based body weight gain from 20 to 50 years of age on later life diabetes risk.Methods35,611 non-diabetic participants aged ≥ 50 years from a well-defined nationwide cohort were followed up for average of 3.6 years, with cardiovascular diseases and cancers at baseline were excluded. Body weight at 20, 30, 40, and 50 years was reported. The overall 30 years and each 10-year weight gain were calculated from the early and middle life. Cox regression models were used to estimate risks of incident diabetes.ResultsAfter 127,745.26 person-years of follow-up, 2,789 incident diabetes were identified (incidence rate, 2.18%) in 25,289 women (mean weight gain 20-50 years, 7.60 kg) and 10,322 men (7.93 kg). Each 10-kg weight gain over the 30 years was significantly associated with a 39.7% increased risk of incident diabetes (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-1.47); weight gain from 20-30 years showed a more prominent effect on the risk of developing diabetes before 60 years than that of after 60 years (Hazard ratio, HR = 1.084, 95% CI [1.049-1.121], P &lt;0.0001 vs. 1.015 [0.975-1.056], P = 0.4643; PInteraction=0.0293). It showed a stable effect of the three 10-year intervals weight gain on risk of diabetes after 60 years (HR=1.055, 1.038, 1.043, respectively, all P &lt; 0.0036).ConclusionsThe early life weight gain showed a more prominent effect on developing diabetes before 60 years than after 60 years; however, each-decade weight gain from 20 to 50 years showed a similar effect on risk developing diabetes after 60 years

Canagliflozin and Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Chronic Kidney Disease in Primary and Secondary Cardiovascular Prevention Groups

Background: Canagliflozin reduces the risk of kidney failure in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease, but effects on specific cardiovascular outcomes are uncertain, as are effects in people without previous cardiovascular disease (primary prevention). Methods: In CREDENCE (Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes With Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation), 4401 participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease were randomly assigned to canagliflozin or placebo on a background of optimized standard of care. Results: Primary prevention participants (n=2181, 49.6%) were younger (61 versus 65 years), were more often female (37% versus 31%), and had shorter duration of diabetes mellitus (15 years versus 16 years) compared with secondary prevention participants (n=2220, 50.4%). Canagliflozin reduced the risk of major cardiovascular events overall (hazard ratio [HR], 0.80 [95% CI, 0.67-0.95]; P=0.01), with consistent reductions in both the primary (HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.49-0.94]) and secondary (HR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.69-1.06]) prevention groups (P for interaction=0.25). Effects were also similar for the components of the composite including cardiovascular death (HR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.61-1.00]), nonfatal myocardial infarction (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.59-1.10]), and nonfatal stroke (HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.56-1.15]). The risk of the primary composite renal outcome and the composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure were also consistently reduced in both the primary and secondary prevention groups (P for interaction &gt;0.5 for each outcome). Conclusions: Canagliflozin significantly reduced major cardiovascular events and kidney failure in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease, including in participants who did not have previous cardiovascular disease

Canagliflozin and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes and nephropathy

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to &lt;90 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area and albuminuria (ratio of albumin [mg] to creatinine [g], &gt;300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of &lt;15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P&lt;0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P&lt;0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years