Surreal Decisions

Although expected utility theory has proven a fruitful and elegant theory in the finite realm, attempts to generalize it to infinite values have resulted in many paradoxes. In this paper, we argue that the use of John Conway's surreal numbers shall provide a firm mathematical foundation for transfinite decision theory. To that end, we prove a surreal representation theorem and show that our surreal decision theory respects dominance reasoning even in the case of infinite values. We then bring our theory to bear on one of the more venerable decision problems in the literature: Pascal's Wager. Analyzing the wager showcases our theory's virtues and advantages. To that end, we analyze two objections against the wager: Mixed Strategies and Many Gods. After formulating the two objections in the framework of surreal utilities and probabilities, our theory correctly predicts that (1) the pure Pascalian strategy beats all mixed strategies, and (2) what one should do in a Pascalian decision problem depends on what one's credence function is like. Our analysis therefore suggests that although Pascal's Wager is mathematically coherent, it does not deliver what it purports to, a rationally compelling argument that people should lead a religious life regardless of how confident they are in theism and its alternatives

Compensated isocurvature perturbations in the curvaton model

Primordial fluctuations in the relative number densities of particles, or isocurvature perturbations, are generally well constrained by cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. A less probed mode is the compensated isocurvature perturbation (CIP), a fluctuation in the relative number densities of cold dark matter and baryons. In the curvaton model, a subdominant field during inflation later sets the primordial curvature fluctuation $\zeta$. In some curvaton-decay scenarios, the baryon and cold dark matter isocurvature fluctuations nearly cancel, leaving a large CIP correlated with $\zeta$. This correlation can be used to probe these CIPs more sensitively than the uncorrelated CIPs considered in past work, essentially by measuring the squeezed bispectrum of the CMB for triangles whose shortest side is limited by the sound horizon. Here, the sensitivity of existing and future CMB experiments to correlated CIPs is assessed, with an eye towards testing specific curvaton-decay scenarios. The planned CMB Stage 4 experiment could detect the largest CIPs attainable in curvaton scenarios with more than 3$\sigma$ significance. The significance could improve if small-scale CMB polarization foregrounds can be effectively subtracted. As a result, future CMB observations could discriminate between some curvaton-decay scenarios in which baryon number and dark matter are produced during different epochs relative to curvaton decay. Independent of the specific motivation for the origin of a correlated CIP perturbation, cross-correlation of CIP reconstructions with the primary CMB can improve the signal-to-noise ratio of a CIP detection. For fully correlated CIPs the improvement is a factor of $\sim$2$-$3.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, minor changes matching publicatio

The Future of Primordial Features with 21 cm Tomography

Detecting a deviation from a featureless primordial power spectrum of fluctuations would give profound insight into the physics of the primordial Universe. Depending on their nature, primordial features can either provide direct evidence for the inflation scenario or pin down details of the inflation model. Thus far, using the cosmic microwave background (CMB) we have only been able to put stringent constraints on the amplitude of features, but no significant evidence has been found for such signals. Here we explore the limit of the experimental reach in constraining such features using 21 cm tomography at high redshift. A measurement of the 21 cm power spectrum from the Dark Ages is generally considered as the ideal experiment for early Universe physics, with potentially access to a large number of modes. We consider three different categories of theoretically motivated models: the sharp feature models, resonance models, and standard clock models. We study the improvements on bounds on features as a function of the total number of observed modes and identify parameter degeneracies. The detectability depends critically on the amplitude, frequency and scale-location of the features, as well as the angular and redshift resolution of the experiment. We quantify these effects by considering different fiducial models. Our forecast shows that a cosmic variance limited 21 cm experiment measuring fluctuations in the redshift range $30\leq z \leq 100$ with a 0.01-MHz bandwidth and sub-arcminute angular resolution could potentially improve bounds by several orders of magnitude for most features compared to current Planck bounds. At the same time, 21 cm tomography also opens up a unique window into features that are located on very small scales.Comment: Matches version accepted for publication. Changes made to forecasting; using k space instead of \ell space. Forecasted constraints significantly improved for some feature