Hurricane loss estimation models - Opportunities for improving the state of the art

The results of hurricane loss models are used regularly for multibillion dollar decisions in the insurance and financial services industries. These models are proprietary, and this black box nature hinders analysis. The proprietary models produce a wide range of results, often producing loss costs that differ by a ratio of three to one or more. In a study for the state of North Carolina, 324 combinations of loss models were analyzed, based on a combination of nine wind models, four surface friction models, and nine damage models drawn from the published literature in insurance, engineering, and meteorology. These combinations were tested against reported losses from Hurricanes Hugo and Andrew as reported by a major insurance company, as well as storm total losses for additional storms. Annual loss costs were then computed using these 324 combinations of models for both North Carolina and Florida, and compared with publicly available proprietary model results in Florida. The wide range of resulting loss costs for open, scientifically defensible models that perform well against observed losses mirrors the wide range of loss costs computed by the proprietary models currently in use. This outcome may be discouraging for governmental and corporate decision makers relying on this data for policy and investment guidance (due to the high variability across model results), but it also provides guidance for the efforts of future investigations to improve loss models. Although hurricane loss models are true multidisciplinary efforts, involving meteorology, engineering, statistics, and actuarial sciences, the field of meteorology offers the most promising opportunities for improvement of the state of the art

Dedication

This issue of the Nebraska Law Review is dedicated to the Honorable Earl Warren, Chief Justice of the United States, upon his retirement

Self-rated health and health care access associated with African American men’s health self-efficacy

Health self-efficacy, a measure of one’s self-assurance in taking care of their own health, is known to contribute to a range of health outcomes that has been under examined among African American men. The purpose of this investigation was to identify and contextualize predictors of general health self-efficacy in this population. A cross-sectional sample of surveys from 558 African American was examined. These men were older than 18 years, could read and write English, and attended a hospital-based community health fair targeting minority men in 2011. The outcome of interest was health self-efficacy, which was assessed by asking, “Overall, how confident are you in your ability to take good care of your health?” Responses ranged from 1 (not confident at all) to 5 (completely confident). Covariates included age, self-rated health, health insurance status, having a regular physician, and being a smoker. The mean age of participants was 54.4 years, and 61.3% of participants indicated confidence in their ability to take good care of their health. Older age and being a smoker were inversely associated with the outcome. Good self-rated health, having health insurance, and having a regular doctor were positively associated with reports of health self-efficacy. Findings suggest that multiple points of connection to the health care system increase the likelihood of health self-efficacy for this sample and interventions to support older African American men who may evaluate their own health status as poor and who may face barriers to health care access are implicated.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/164711/1/Thompson et al 2017 Self-rated health and health care access.pdfDescription of Thompson et al 2017 Self-rated health and health care access.pdf : Main articl

Stress in nurses : stress-related affect and its determinants examined over the nursing day

Peer reviewedPostprin

International Trade Under the Rule of Law Conference

The central focus of the conference was the dispute settlement system of the World Trade Organization (WTO), with a view toward exploring the need for a superstructure of international law governing trade and economic cooperation between countries

No. 5 - International Trade under the Rule of Law: An American Society of International Law Centennial Regional Meeting

Organized and sponsored by the Dean Rusk Center and designated an American Society of International Law Centennial Regional Meeting, this conference focused on the Dispute Settlement System (DSS) of the World Trade Organization (WTO) with a view toward discussing the need for a superstructure of international law governing trade and economic cooperation between states

Spin Relaxation in Ge/Si Core-Shell Nanowire Qubits

Controlling decoherence is the most challenging task in realizing quantum information hardware. Single electron spins in gallium arsenide are a leading candidate among solid- state implementations, however strong coupling to nuclear spins in the substrate hinders this approach. To realize spin qubits in a nuclear-spin-free system, intensive studies based on group-IV semiconductor are being pursued. In this case, the challenge is primarily control of materials and interfaces, and device nanofabrication. We report important steps toward implementing spin qubits in a predominantly nuclear-spin-free system by demonstrating state preparation, pulsed gate control, and charge-sensing spin readout of confined hole spins in a one-dimensional Ge/Si nanowire. With fast gating, we measure T1 spin relaxation times in coupled quantum dots approaching 1 ms, increasing with lower magnetic field, consistent with a spin-orbit mechanism that is usually masked by hyperfine contributions

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies from the CHARGE consortium identifies common variants associated with carotid intima media thickness and plaque

Carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) and plaque determined by ultrasonography are established measures of subclinical atherosclerosis that each predicts future cardiovascular disease events. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association data in 31,211 participants of European ancestry from nine large studies in the setting of the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) Consortium. We then sought additional evidence to support our findings among 11,273 individuals using data from seven additional studies. In the combined meta-analysis, we identified three genomic regions associated with common carotid intima media thickness and two different regions associated with the presence of carotid plaque (P < 5 × 10 -8). The associated SNPs mapped in or near genes related to cellular signaling, lipid metabolism and blood pressure homeostasis, and two of the regions were associated with coronary artery disease (P < 0.006) in the Coronary Artery Disease Genome-Wide Replication and Meta-Analysis (CARDIoGRAM) consortium. Our findings may provide new insight into pathways leading to subclinical atherosclerosis and subsequent cardiovascular events