Guesstimation

Macroeconomic model builders attempting to construct forecasting models frequently face constraints of data scarcity in terms of short time series of data, and also of parameter non-constancy and underspecification. Hence, a realistic alternative is often to guess rather than to estimate parameters of such models. This paper concentrates on repetitive guessing (drawing) parameters from iteratively changing distributions, with the straightforward objective function being that of minimisation of squares of ex-post prediction errors, weighted by penalty weights and subject to a learning process. The numerical Monte Carlo examples are those of a regression problem and a dynamic disequilibrium model.estimation; short data series; macromodels; computations; methodology

Ex-ante dynamics of real effects of monetary policy: Theory and evidence for Poland and Russia, 2001-2003

The paper proposes a new indicator of expected real effects of a policy aimed at controlling inflation. The indicator, called real effect of inflation targeting (REIT), involves the comparison of expected and output-neutral inflation. It is shown that it can be derived from a simple two-dimensional vector autoregressive model of inflation and output gap. The microdynamics of such model are explained in terms of the foundations of Taylor-type staggered wage contracts. It is assumed that the monetary authority has some discretion regarding the timing of monetary actions. Here REIT can be used to set the optimal times for such actions, if the control of output is regarded as a secondary policy target. A simulation experiment illustrates the rationale of such a device for timing monetary measures. The REIT has been used by the Polish Monetary Policy Council since 2001 in it's inflation targeting and is thought to have contributed to a substantial decline in Polish inflation in 2003 and to an increase in output growth in 2004. A similar indicator computed for Russia as a means of monitoring monetary policy rather than as an active tool confirms that active expansionary policy in 2002 and 2003 might have contributed to Russian economic growth in 2004 and 2005, whereas similar policy measures for 2004 are likely to prove ineffective.

Guesstimation.

Macroeconomic model builders attempting to construct forecasting models frequently face constraints of data scarcity in terms of short time series of data, and also of parameter non-constancy and underspecification. Hence, a realistic alternative is often to guess rather than to estimate parameters of such models. This paper concentrates on repetitive guessing (drawing) parameters from iteratively changing distributions, with the straightforward objective function being that of minimisation of squares of ex-post prediction errors, weighted by penalty weights and subject to a learning process. The numerical Monte Carlo examples are those of a regression problem and a dynamic disequilibrium model

Prognosticate of Macroeconomic Dimensions with Use of LAM 3.0 Model: Perspectives of Economic Development in Poland in 2000 Year

The first part of the paper presents a brief description of the assumptions underlying the series of LAM models, describing East European economies in transition and the principles of the forecasting round. Since 1993 Macroeconomic and Financial Data Centre at the University of Gdańsk has been performing various macroeconomic forecasts and analyses of economies in transition. Since 1999 the new version of the LAM series model, namely LAM 3.0 is used as a base for forecasting Polish economy growth for Gdańsk Institut for Market Economies. The second part of the paper presents evaluation of the Polish economy condition in 2nd quarter of 1999 and the short-term quarterly forecast to the end of the year 2000